Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have moved steadfastly into sell mode because of a lack of confidence on Wall Street overnight as economic fears surrounding the Chinese coronavirus continue to spread. A run on safe havens like Yen and gold while a big selloff in offshore Yuan is pushing stock markets into the red as yields drop on sovereign bonds. The risk complex may yet need some help from the Fed.

The Hang Seng Index continued its big selloff, falling nearly 3% today, and losing over 5% since its return from the Lunar New Year holiday. The market finished at 26396 points, bringing it back to the start of December level, wiping out all of the Xmas rally:

Japanese share markets fell sharply as Yen buying was the order of the day with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.7% lower at 22977 points, taking it back to its October lows and sitting on key monthly support. The USDJPY pair broke down out of its tight trading range, pushed below the 109 handle going into the City open and ready to retrace to its start of week level:

The ASX200 was the relative best in the region, falling only 0.3% to remain above 7000 points 7008.  The Australian dollar helped here by deflating into the low 67’s against USD, still in a dominant downtrend going into the RBA meeting:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are falling back sharply, with the dead cat bounce (or is that dead bat?) now fully in play. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows this quite clearly, as price heads back to the Monday lows:

The economic calendar has a slew of reports to get through tonight. Hold your breath – German unemployment and CPI, the BOE meeting and press conference, the final 4Q US GDP print and then initial jobless claims. Plus that pesky trial that isn’t a trial in the US Senate.

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Comments

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      It’s wh!tes making it racialist to get some kind of social justice endorphin kick, all those types need quarantining and cremating

      Hmmm 🤔 that sounds a bit WW2, maybe some re-education will do

  1. So ~100 cases ex China, no fatalities.

    Granted those travelling internationally are likely economically and therefore physically better off, but surely we’d be looking at a few fatalities in this group by now, if the fatality rate was anywhere near SARS-esque, as many here say.

    • The 25th was CNY and the night before is the usual celebration with family night. So let’s call that the start of the biggest annual human migration. (many Chinese rarely get holidays outside of the defined ones and have time to travel, hence CNY being a huge migration event) That was six days ago. Given the uncertainty of the incubation period, this thing is only just kicking off outside of China. Given how infectious it appears to be in China, let’s give it a week or two before we all call it a bullsh1t over reaction and media scare. In the meantime, i’m watching the news feeds and being mildly cautious.

    • There’s a few doctors here, anyone know if this virus is capable of inducing a cytokine storm as have some other viruses like Spanish flu? If so we may be in a lot of trouble

      • Apparently there is an updated one with a lower mortality rate. Not sure if saw in comments on this site or elsewhere.

      • 10-15% seems likely at this stage. Too early to know however.

        2 other Coronavirus epidemics past 20 years
        SARS – 12-14% mortality
        MERS 35% mortality

        So we will be lucky if this is 2%

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The first wave of infection started at the Wuhan fish market, and the second wave of infection started at the hospitals. So if you’re unfortunate enough to be sick at the hospital during that period, you’ll have coronavirus to deal with as well.

      The hospital system is overwhelmed, and once you’re in the isolation ward you’ll starve to death if you can’t feed yourself.

      • HadronCollisionMEMBER

        Fairly heavy handed TRH
        Handy to shed a few Chrissy kilos before smashing the Croix de fer but !

          • The funny side is that the vibrants bring their vibrant culture (often rapey) with them.

            And because we are all too ashamed of our own whiite culture, we take it. They can do no wrong.

            Granted it’s not ha-ha funny, but it’s pretty funny.

          • HadronCollisionMEMBER

            Sorry but peachy what you’re in fact implying is no whiteys are predatory

            Catholic Church waves hello

            Putting aside your point about the acquittal which may or may not be race related (is it?)

          • Here we go – HadronCollision is a great example of the pervasive whiite guilt. Must keep self flagellating while pandering to all our cultural betters.

          • HadronCollisionMEMBER

            You have me completely wrong
            But it does suit this pervasive white guilt thing you have going on

            Carry on !

          • I don’t have you wrong.

            Why do you have to say something like this

            Sorry but peachy what you’re in fact implying is no whiteys are predatory

            Too uncomfortable with the notion that other cultures might be rapey without immediately diluting the message by confessing whiite rapey sins?

    • Oh dear, not even “Sydney’s upper north shore” is immune to the blight of mass 3rd world immigration.

    • This is bollocks. Mexicans don’t want to go to the US because the US economy is a disaster. They could go anywhere they like in the first world. Just like our Jimmies. As soon as our economy turns (~Independence Day 2021), all the jimmies will stop coming here and the ones already here will leave.

      Right?

      • I know you are the leader of Peachystan, but lets not get too smarmy like a REA now Peachy. What has happened in the last 30 odd years is new territory, so don’t go extrapolating the past like it’s the new future as Domain does with house prices. Your cynicism has been right for a few years, but like returns from Bernie Maddof’s fund, they can all turn to poo quickly.

        I’m starting to suspect you may be a mortgage broker like the guys in the big short?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgGLgygsqus

    • They have been for quite some time. The one discovered was the longest. From Wiki: As of September 30, 2015, 183 illicit cross-border tunnels have been discovered in the United States since Fiscal Year 1990. Reckon they would’ve found a fvck load more since then.

  2. Lol, a lot of us really do appear to be just hairless monkeys…

    From January 18 to January 26, searches for “corona beer virus” jumped 2,300% globally, Google Trends data shows.

    Poor buggers are probably going to cop a pasting just for having a similar name. 😀

  3. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    India confirms first case of new coronavirus
    One positive case of the new coronavirus or 2019-nCoV has been found in Kerala, India. The student was studying at Wuhan University in China. The patient is stable and is being closely monitored.
    The report comes as local media in India is reporting of “up to 150 students collapsing at a university from flu symptoms.”

    Why would 150 students all of a sudden just start collapsing from “Flu Symptoms”?
    #Fake news?
    Gulp,….Racially specific Corona Bio weapon?
    The Chinese clearly go for Pakistan in the Cricket.
    https://www.thenational.ae/world/asia/coronavirus-live-updates-as-first-cases-confirmed-in-middle-east-1.968797

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I drove into Eastwood today (windows up with the A/C on recirculate) on my way to Plumbers CoOp and detoured through the Main shopping strip along Rowe st, past the walk through mall then down past the usually very busy Progress ave, up lakeside then down past the library opposite Eastwood Bizzos.
      Never have I seen the place so dead at the usually busy 3 to 4 pm.
      Several of my mates saw me driving slowly by bizzos (they all know im avoiding the place due to Corona virus) and started to wave me in,…I very theatrically placed my hand over my mouth like a mask and solemnly shook my head.
      They laughed and mouthed abuse as I started to speed off.
      Not long after I receive a number of text messages from these friends questioning my Manliness and suggesting I have a c0ck so soft that it may as well be a [email protected]

      I think they were being unfair,…what do you guys think?

    • It makes sense from an evolutionary perspective given where ground zero was. That doesn’t mean there won’t be another mutation that more efficiently jumps between other races.

  4. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Well if they don’t wanna be evacuated from fluhan they can fkn stay in fkn fluhan forever

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      There is no public transport in Wuhan right now, and private car usage is banned. The ‘evacuation plan’ requires the evacuee to get to the Wuhan airport themselves : how? Walk for hours in sub zero temperature, dragging luggages and carrying their kid while wearing a n95 facemask that makes it hard to breathe? You are more likely to get sick doing that compared to staying at home.

      Even though they try to make it sound like everyone is facing starvation, people are not starving in Wuhan. (at least, not yet..)

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Saw some Chinese …sorry strayan complaining about
      The $1000 contribution they have to make for the cost of the flight …….jeez you would have thought it a gorilla well spent to get taken out of that sh1thole

      • What , do they want the government to pay for the flight/evacuation? Seems like some kind of communism to me.

      • Thousand bucks for an all expenses two week holiday in a vibrant tropical paradise?

        Where do I sign up?

      • HadronCollisionMEMBER

        I’m not an apologist for the complainant but as a comparison , after the Boxing Day tsunami what did our national flag carrier do? Were there charged for repatriation?

        Srs question – what’s different about this ?

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          Perhaps in the tsunami the whole infrastructure was washed away ….like the Darwin cyclone as well

          Looks like government response has different levels depending on circumstances ….
          ….

          “In a statement given to the ABC, DFAT said: “It is standard practice going back many years that in cases where the Government undertakes an assisted departure, Australians are required to make a contribution to the cost of their repatriation.

          “This was the case for example in the assisted departure by air charter from Cairo during the Arab Spring in 2011, and the Lebanon conflict in 2006.”

          The ABC understands that the fee for evacuation will not include domestic transportation in China and Australia, where citizens will have to arrange their own travel before and after the quarantine.”

  5. Bridget F’n Mckenzie.

    The longer it takes for her r$e to be handed to her on a plate, the more tender slow cooked it’ll be when it gets there.

    Unfrikkinbelievable.

  6. GunnamattaMEMBER

    I know the Chinese are locking down cities and transport hubs but for Russia to do this is fairly ominous in my mind, and I find myself wondering if – as opposed to a fairly standard flu, which causes deaths in the aged and inform – there is something about this flu which is really freaking out some governments……

    Russia Closes Far East Border Over Coronavirus – Moscow Times
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/01/30/russia-closes-far-east-border-over-coronavirus-a69100

  7. Russians closing the border just looks to me like trying to get in front of the virus spread given the delay in showing symptoms. Cutting air flights into Australia, or routing through Xmas island is a possibility for us but we need to do extras since it is here already.