Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks were mixed despite a rebound on Wall Street overnight as economic fears surrounding the Chinese coronavirus have not eased, despite some better than expected US numbers. Currency markets are still relatively tight with the USD advancing against most except the Aussie which has blipped higher in anticipation of the upcoming Fed meeting. Bitcoin has broken out above the $9000 mark:

Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index returned to trade and gapped over 2% lower, finishing the session down 2.5% at 27232 points, with most of the Xmas rally wiped out due to this big breakdown in confidence:

Japanese share markets were the best in the region, all due to a minor selloff in Yen throughout the session and catchup buying with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% higher to 23360 points, still below the key 24000 point resistance level. The USDJPY pair broke out of its trading range but is not making any further gains, hovering just above the 109 handle going into the City open and now in a mild retracement:

The ASX200 finished back above 7000 points as FOMO and bottom picking became the order of the day, rising 0.5% to be at 7033 points.  The Australian dollar barely lifted off the mat to be at the 67.70 level, still in a dominant downtrend going into the RBA meeting:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are lifting, advancing after their rebound overnight with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a minor push back to trailing overhead resistance at the 3300 point level. This bounceback is to be expected, but could run out of puff soon:

The economic calendar will be dominated by the Federal Reserve meeting tonight with expectations of no change in rates runnign at nearly 90% odds, the technical underpinning might get a wobble. Watch closely – or watch the Senate impeachment trial for the usual giggles.

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  1. – There is one signal that “under the radar” things are deteriorating. The silver-gold ratio didn’t confirm the recent run-up in stocks. This ratio took a significant hit in the first 2 days of this week. It will be interesting to see how this ratio behaves in the coming days & weeks.

      • – The rule of thumb is that the stock market(s) (Dow Jones, S&P 500, ASX, etc.) should move in the same this ratio.
        – E.g. in very late 1928 this ratio started to go down but the stockmarket kept rising until september 1929. With the crash of 1929 this ratio also nosedived / crashed.

      • – I forgot to add that during the 1920s this silver-gold ratio remained – more or less – flat. But in late 1929 this ratio crashed.

  2. So Scummo is sending Australians from Hubei to Christmas Island, where i’m sure they have world class respiratory wards in the hospital that can cope with dozens of pneumonia cases, whilst he lets planeloads of Chinese into the country and hands them a pamphlet asking them to go to the doctor if feeling ill.

    Edit: British Airways has suspended all flights to and from China.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Yesterday on RN Breakfast: Gov lackey says Coronavirus only contagious after symptoms evident, despite Chinese Gov advice to the contrary.
    Today local ABC drivetime : Gov lackey says Coronavirus IS contagious 😷 before symptoms are evident.
    Planes are still coming in. Uni starts in 3 weeks. 164,000 Chinese students.
    Stocking up on 2 months of food & medicine.
    No evolutionary penalty for panicking first.

    (And a great big FVCK YOU to the LNP & the Labor Party.)

  4. Mining BoganMEMBER

    What sort of crowded public events do Chinamans attend? What should be avoided? Thought I’d be safe at the cricket and the footy but bus drivers would attend those and they’re dangerous after ferrying around the infected hordes. I don’t do auctions so that’s okay. I rarely do the city so that’s sweet.

    I need a list of things of what to not do.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      You probably want to avoid all crowded places, wash your hands regularly and try not to touch your mouth, nose or eyes (good luck with that one!).

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      If this thing goes really mental by Saturday then I’m going to the brother in-laws down at Wallaga Lake.
      Bega Hospital isn’t to far away if one of us picks it up before then and its much less likely to be overwhelmed.
      If the inlaw isn’t to keen to risk us staying with him the caravan park is only half a dozen properties around the lake.

      If things calm down by Saturday/Sunday then its first day back at school on Monday for the kids (they don’t go into their new classes untill then anyway)
      and for me, my yearly lotto club harbour cruise/piss up is on Sunday.

      Fingers crossed!

    • HadronCollisionMEMBER

      Depending on next 5 days reconsidering work flights Regional NSW-> Syd airport and Chatswood work

      Stocking up ammo tomorrow plus flour , long life soy milk, lentils chickpeas salt sugar canned fruit tuna some diesel unleaded and if things go really bad in next few days generator and air filter maybe

      Good to have left the cities

      Work visit Sydney ex Gold Coast looking very unlikely end feb

      Airports taxis would be major concern. And unis, trains

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yes my family is barred from all public transport and shopping centres and our friends who are not doing the same.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Everywhere I go will be by car or bike. No shopping centres.

        So I’m asking because I’ve got a triathlon on this weekend. You see the occasional Chinamans but not many. Thing is though we wouldn’t know who is or isn’t infected because of our lax quarantine.

        Thank Dog the fun run last weekend was all white nationalists.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Heavy exercise lowers your immune system.
          Be careful who you run with.
          Some of those “White Nationalists” might be sneekly visiting their local Chinese run rub and tug establishments.

          I’m looking at you Reusa,

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Some of the tiny kit the ladies were wearing that day looked like stuff Reusa would wear to an ‘event’.

            I wonder what his stand is on Queen Liz.

          • Scotty from marketing

            The only time reusa runs is to the toilet is because China lady stuck her finger to far up his brown eye on the vinger stroke after doggy currie the night before ride on Christy Moore I could never be like you

          • Scotty from marketing

            They will retaliate were at war 4 years now 5 eyes this the best time to subugat the sheep

      • I don’t think it’s gnna be bad enough to be prepping like you are, but at the same time, I’m always stocked up on everything you mentioned except for the fuel. I’m genuinely surprised by how little emergency supplies people in Australia keep on hand in light of how often we need such things.

    • Won’t go out of my way to immerse myself in Asian culture but at the same time, will largely just keep doing what I’m doing.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      60 year old bloke from Melbourne confirmed. Got it visiting a restaurant, in Melbourne. 5 family members in quarantine.

      Let’s hope it’s not R3.8 and the other restaurant patrons are found very quickly.

        • No. Didn’t get it from restaurant, but may have given it instead.

          He travelled from Wuhan on 20th
          He got sick on 23rd
          He went to restaurant on 26th. The House Of Delight. I’m sure the other diners are delighted.
          So he just come back from the epicentre, felt unwell, and still decided to go out to dinner.

          Heard on the radio this afternoon that at a selective high school in North Sydney, kids were asked if they had been to China over the holidays. Lots of hands allegedly went up. This was after NSW requested kids not attend school within 14 days of returning from China.

          And that is why this will spiral upwards.

  5. run to the hillsMEMBER

    Passed through Phnom Penh and Bangkok airports today, I’d say 90% of people in PP wearing face masks, a bit less so in BKK, only people not covering up were largely Westerners, I didn’t bother but it’s a bit unnerving.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Catch certain trains in Sydney peak hour and your also in the small minority that isn’t wearing a mask this week.

      • run to the hillsMEMBER

        One Asian fellow in the PP business lounge had a couple of decent coughing fits with no attempt made to cover his mouth, BKK also enforcing the fingerprint scanner at immigration with no disinfectant to be seen.

      • Scotty from marketing

        Are you Asian if not no Worrys mate but euro asian no bug gona touch this they will will return the favour Caucasians way

  6. Number of Wuhan virus patients have reached over 6000, and infection rate outside Hubei including Beijing and Shanghai has gone exponential. Mandatory quarantine of everyone from China for 14 days or outright banning visitor from China will eventually be imposed by every country on Earth. Australia should do it now, not after we get thousands of people infected.

    The virus itself is not as scary as SARS. With SARS, the cure is often worse than the disease and a lot of patients that is ‘cured’ is still suffering from life long debilitating conditions. In contrast, several health workers in Wuhan who were infected by the coronavirus have recovered, and are already back at work. Infant and elderly aside, it seems that if you’re healthy, your chance of recovery is pretty good.

    On the flip side, avoiding area populated by Chinese is a good precaution because not everyone is selfless. There is a case of an elderly Chinese man who came back from Wuhan, got symptoms of the virus, but went out to a Chinese hot pot restaurant for dinner regardless. He is now confirmed to be a carrier, the restaurant is forcibly closed, and the health authorities is tracking down everyone who ate at the place for the past few days. That restaurant will forever be known as the ‘Wuhan virus restaurant’ and is pretty much finished.

    While there are many pictures of empty streets in Wuhan, life still goes on. I heard from my mum that my cousin (very distant, I have never met her in RL) in Wuhan still goes to work every day as normal. The bigger challenge would be the 5 million people who have no way of going back to Hubei, and they may not want to go back either. the province will experience a very severe recession.

    My brother-in-law is a dentist, and he is having trouble getting surgical mask now. We may start to see face mark rationing card soon n Australia..

      • By definition, if you have it and get over it then your immune system has triggered and responded to the virus sufficiently to defeat it.

        Unless there’s something really freaky about the virus; or unless it mutates so fast that it’s no longer recognised by your immune system then yes. An immune response should be developed by most people.

        • There is evidence that some individuals with delayed or deficient humoral immune response can be reinfected by the same strain of flu during an outbreak.

          • Interesting, thanks. Never heard of that.

            If that’s a genetic condition that impairs the immune response, then anyone with that condition would be at risk of re-infection / re-exposure for any pathogen. Measles, cold, bacterial… everything. Have I understood that correctly ?

  7. arthritic kneeMEMBER

    The Chinese aren’t the best at fudging the numbers. Have been watching for about half a day. The number of confirmed cases keeps going up while the number of suspected cases remains stagnant. Essentially saying that everyone in doubt is cool but random cases from left field keep popping up. I also love how the “Cured” number gets a little more love than the Fatality number. ‘Cured’ of course implies there is an active treatment as opposed to general Medical support and the crossing of fingers

    • As the number of infections increases and medical services become increasingly overwhelmed, surely the percentage of ‘cured’ will fall, no?

  8. Scotty from marketing

    Bit coin bites the dust mallenials want experiences and something to touch howknew tiny homes you peasants

  9. Scotty from marketing

    We’re is Mr wolf the king is gone but not for gotten 15% over 18 sold before the dip loaded up made 25% when girls were uranating