Australian interest rates

From the McCrann foghorn: On Wednesday the latest official inflation figures will be released.

Via Alan Kohler today: By how much?

This time CBA: CPI Preview – Q3 2019 ■ We expect the headline CPI to rise by 0.5% in Q3 (1.7%/yr). ■ The Trimmed Mean CPI on our forecasts will print at 0.4% (1.6%/yr).

Via Banking Day: Australian banks “face greater pressure to their profits” a Treasury briefing for their minister, Josh Frydenberg, explains.

Via Westpac’s Bill Evans: In last week’s note we opined that the Effective Lower Bound (ELB) for the RBA’s cash rate is 0.5% which we expected to be reached in February next year.

Via the excellent Jonathon Mott at UBS: Bank reporting season begins on 31st October.

Bloomie is borderline hysterical today: Australia is seemingly rushing headlong into another debt-fueled property binge.

Via BofAML: Three threats to bonds Typically, when stocks decline, we see investors rushing to buy US Treasury bonds and other safe assets.

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The “quant quake” is happening again.

UBS was dovish.

Via Bill Evans: The employment report for September printed a modest fall in the unemployment rate from 5.26% to 5.20%.

MB often works with international hedge funds on the Aussie economy.

So say the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: RBA Deputy Governor Debelle has just delivered a “glass half-empty” speech about the housing construction cycle.

Via RBA foghorn, Terry Mccrann: It will leave its official interest rate unchanged at its regular and decidedly idiosyncratic Cup Day meeting.

From Washington today comes Phil Lowe: “I don’t think it’s the right assumption to make that we’re going to have a lot more work to do to get inflation back to target and growth back to trend,” Dr Lowe told a forum at the IMF in Washington on Thursday (Friday AEDT).

Yeh, they’re onto it at last.

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: There are two very important aspects to the minutes of the October meeting of the Reserve Bank Board.

They’re risky, have falling earnings, and are very highly valued at 15x forward.

Post trade non-deal, Aussie bonds have sold off with the move in the US especially violent, though Australia has followed: The Aussie curve has steepened: And, giving us read of just how locally based Aussie weakness is, spreads to the US have widened: So, is it BTFB?

The happy pills have soured at Martin Place: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of global economic conditions by noting that heightened policy uncertainty was affecting international trade and business investment.

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Our proprietary measure of the Australian credit impulse has picked up to 5.6% annualized in August, from 4.9% in July, and 4.6% in June.

Via Ross Gittins today: It’s amazing so many people are so sure they can see where the Reserve Bank is headed.

It’s never enough bubble for Joshy Recessionberg: The big four banks will be ­officially investigated for their repeated failures to pass on the full extent of central bank rate cuts to consumers under a government-launched probe into home-loan gouging.