Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse:
Our proprietary measure of the Australian credit impulse has picked up to 5.6% annualized in August, from 4.9% in July, and 4.6% in June. Importantly, the credit impulse is well off the lows we saw at the end of 2018. Indeed, the impulse is running at its fastest pace since 2017. The implication is that financial conditions are genuinely easing, partly because the Federal government has sharply turned around its spending position from surplus at the end of 2018, to deficit in 2H 2019. The government is printing money again. Anyone waiting for the terms of trade boom to filter through to the real economy finally has something to cheer about. And from an investment perspective, the way to play this is via curve steepening in the fixed income space, and value investing within equities.
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