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US Economy
US property market breaks
I remain of the view that the Fed will keep tightening until “something breaks”.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
4
Is Powell another Volcker or Burns?
A good piece here from BofA sums up nicely where the Fed is at.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
1
Time for Not QE?
I have been expecting this kind of shift to spread from the UK.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
1
Mid-terms races tighten
JPM with the update.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
4
US inflation will be high for a while
US inflation came in hot overnight.
Damien Klassen
2 years ago
20
US CPI previews
As we await the big one.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
1
US jobs preview
Calculated Risk with the preview.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
The Fed’s not done
The latest Cleveland Fed nowcasting model for US inflation is still double where it needs to be: CorePCE is the key measure for the Fed.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
US recession becomes the base case
For the slow-moving that is.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
5
Nomura: Fed to go all in, US recession looms
Nomura leading the hawks post-CPI.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
27
Democrats firm into mid-terms
It appears a combination of relentless Trump impeachment and lower petrol prices is lifting Democrat prospects into the mid-terms.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
6
Goldman: US threading the needle on ‘soft landing’
Goldman Sachs with the note: 1.
Leith van Onselen
2 years ago
1
A US recession won’t come easy
Leith van Onselen
2 years ago
Who will win the mid-terms?
Citi using polling models.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
6
What will Jay Powell mutter into the Jackson Hole?
I can’t see how he can be anything other than hawkish given the equity market mania driving premature reflation.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
4
That giant sucking sound is QT
Societe General with a glance at the progress of QT and where it will end. Shrinking the SOMA The Fed began shrinking its portfolio, i.e. quantitative tightening (QT), in June 2022.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
2
Down the Jackson Hole we go
Morgan Stanley on the salience of Jackson Hole this week.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
3
Fed still hawkish
JPM on the Fed minutes.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
3
How fast will US inflation fall?
Nordea sees it as slow and painful and not just in America.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
2
Exploited US workers much better off than Australian
The US is home to the rapacious corporation, the destroyed trade union, and the great working underclass.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
6
US property comes apart in that 70s show
It may be that US financial conditions are still relatively easy: As it plunges into recession: But, with the Fed still tightening owing to wild inflation and wage growth: US housing is beginning to buckle and will make everything economic worse in due course.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
2
Albert Edwards: Everything bubble about to burst
Albert Edwards of Society General returns to slam the Fed.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
15
MOAR QE coming
Of course, MOAR is coming.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
12
Another day, another US recession forecast
BofA joining the bears.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
1
US wages boom over
At least they had one.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 years ago
1
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