Goldman with the guess.
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in April (mom sa), above consensus of+182k but a slowdown from the +345k average pace of the last three months. We believe high but falling labor demand more than offset continued layoffs in the information and financial sectors and a roughly 25k hiring drag from reduced credit availability. Big Data employment indicators were strong on net, arguing against a large credit drag. The April seasonal factors for nonfarm payrolls have also evolved favorably relative to the pre-pandemic period and represent a tailwind worth 50-100k, in our view.n
We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% (vs. consensus3.6%), reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged laborforce participation (at 62.6%). We estimate a 0.35% increase in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that boosts the year-on-year rate slightly to 4.25% (consensus is +0.3% and +4.2%). Our forecast reflects waning upward wage pressures and positive calendar effects. Additionally, composition effects have weighed on average hourly earnings growth so far this year—we estimate by 0.09pp onaverage for the monthly rate—and we expect a more modest drag tomorrow and going forward
