US Economy

Steven Blitz at TSLombard.

Credit Suisse with the wrap. On Tuesday, the BLS will release its May CPI report.Our work indicates thatYoYinflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June (July12 release).

Goldman has cut its US recession probabilities.

Emergency use of Fed facilities continues to climb: Amusingly, the Fed transformed further deposit flight into huge inflows via seasonal adjustments: Meanwhile, credit flows tell the tale.

Morgan Stanley with the note.

As the AI bubble in equities drives late-cycle economic activity, the US Federal Reserve will have to resume rate hikes.

The US credit crunch rolls on.

The excellent Stephen Blitz at TSLombard.

Last week, Fed emerging funding facilities were still being pumped: Because deposits continue to flow out of banks: Lending data is lagged by another week.

BofA is one of the better CPI trackers. More signs of disinflation The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was broadly in line with expectations. Headline CPI rose by 0.4% m/m (0.37% unrounded), which was roughly in line with our and consensus expectations.

Citi says hot.

The Fed released its Q1 SLOOS data last night.

The week ending April 26 was better for the US bank crisis but it is nowhere near out of the woods given this data is still prior to First Republic.

Goldman with the guess. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in April (mom sa), above consensus of+182k but a slowdown from the +345k average pace of the last three months.

From JPM.

Last week’s Fed update on bank credit showed ongoing pressures in the banking system.

US Q1 data was out last night.

Morgan Stanley is making sense to me because the Fed has not done enough yet to deliver its mandate unless the credit crunch does it for it.

Goldman with the update.

Goldman with the update.