US Economy

15

The US economic recovery is already buggered

Do you think that the US economy has locked down, flattened the virus, and is about re-open? Think again: Most places where the virus curve is under control still have lockdowns. The major exception is the south east, perhaps aided by warmth. Vast areas are reopening with the virus still out of control: Let’s refer

159

Gun-tote’n, law abide’n Americans prepare to die for freedom

Let’s make no bones about it, they’re nuts (though on occasion I do admire their ‘freedom at all costs’ credo), via Domain: The governors of several US states – including close allies of President Donald Trump – are moving to rapidly reopen businesses and churches as protests against government-mandated lockdowns spread throughout the country. The

59

El Trumpo suspends immigration

In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 21, 2020 The invisible enemy, eh.

20

Who gets back to work first?

Via Goldman on the US economy but useful for Australia too: What Will Reopening Look Like? Absent a vaccine or scalable treatment breakthrough, reopening will have to remain gradual. There has been some enthusiasm recently about the possibility that far more people than initially believed have been infected but have remained asymptomatic or uncounted for

7

Is the US virus curve really flattening?

Yes: Some more:   But the main reason for it is falling testing: I won’t go to the point that less testing equals higher stock prices, putting El Trumpo incentives in question. The percentage infection rate per test is roughly flat so if testing were rising, as it should be, so too would the daily

3

US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: Important Notes: 1. The BLS reference week includes the 12th of the month. Massive COVID-19 layoffs started after the reference week (although there was a pickup in layoffs during the reference week). 2. Watch for Special Notes in the release. There could be some important announcements on how the BLS will be handling unemployment

118

My god, the US is headed for virus disaster

It’s everywhere: USA State Total Cases New Cases Total Deaths New Deaths Active Cases Source New York 75,795 +8,470 1,550 +208 69,270 [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] New Jersey 18,696 +2,060 267 +69 18,429 [1] Michigan 7,615 +1,117 259 +75 7,351 [1] [2] California 7,453 +205 149 +4 7,244 [1] Massachusetts 6,620 +868 89 +33 6,521 [1] [2] Florida 6,338 +634

41

Wuhan flu is about to gut the US

Via Domain: US President Donald Trump has extended his administration’s social distancing guidelines until the end of April, abandoning his goal to have the country running normally by Easter. Trump’s announcement came as the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, predicted that up to 200,000 Americans could die of the coronavirus and millions

34

Shit’s getting real in New York

Via the NYT: In several hours on Tuesday, Dr. Ashley Bray performed chest compressions at Elmhurst Hospital Center on a woman in her 80s, a man in his 60s and a 38-year-old who reminded the doctor of her fiancé. All had tested positive for the coronavirus and had gone into cardiac arrest. All eventually died.

2

US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: Special Note: The 2020 Decennial Census will increase hiring in early 2020. In reporting the employment report, the headline number should be reduced (or increased) by the change in Census temporary employment to show the underlying trend.  Based on previous Census hiring, I expect the Census hired 10 to 20 thousand temporary workers in February.

27

Why COVID-19 is about to ravage America

Via Stethoscope on Rome: Rome’s streets are empty, the supermarket shelves loaded with food. My fellow denizens, for once free of the tourist hordes, are enjoying their lives in a state of limbo, waiting for coronavirus to come crashing down around their heads before they start stocking their larders and hunkering down. At least that’s

23

What has the Fed done?

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Central bankers seem quite averse to cycles and volatility. By corollary, they seem extremely keen to bail out passive investors. But why? Overnight, the Fed cut rates by 50bps, and investors responded unkindly. Equities sold off aggressively, and volatility (VIX) rose to 36.8% from 33.4%. The 10-year bond yield

15

The virus is about to erupt in the US

The US now has 108 reported cases and nine reported deaths. The latter suggests the fomer is out by a factor of ten. Check this CNBC video out to discover why: COVID-19 is in the US and already spreading fast. 1.5m new test kits are on their way and numbers will rise fast in the

37

COVID-19 to end Trump

Via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Three weeks ago there was much talk of a “Chernobyl moment” for China’s Communist Party, discredited by totalitarian attempts to suppress news of the spreading coronavirus in Wuhan. But fast-moving events can play wicked tricks, especially on a White House allergic to scientific facts. The new coronavirus, or COVID-19, is more likely