Credit Suisse with the wrap.
On Tuesday, the BLS will release its May CPI report.Our work indicates thatYoYinflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June (July12 release). Should this play out as expected, this would represent one of the greatest drops experienced in a 2-month period over the past 70 years.
Historically, similar declines have only occurred during periods of economic upheaval, such as the onset of COVID, the Great Recession, and in 1975 during the Great Inflation.