US inflation preview

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

Citi says hot.

We expect a 0.435% MoM increase in core CPI in April, one of two very important CPI inflation reports ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Used car prices should rise again in April, with continued strength in the key non-shelter services prices.

While a solid increase in core CPI will be important for pushing back on market pricing of cuts from the Fed, details of CPI and Thursday’s PPI data could lead to an even stronger increase in core PCE inflation.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.