Global Macro

Goldman with a look at the US in the wake of recent shipping issues.

Data compiled by Bloomberg reported in The Australian indicates that Australia has lost its spot as the world’s biggest exporter of LNG to the US, with the US exporting 91.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2023.

US shares rose and bond yields fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled that its policy tightening of the last two years is at an end.

The greatest accomplishment of the Albanese Labor Government has been delivering the worst rental and homelessness crisis in living memory. The Albanese government has lifted net overseas migration to an estimated record high 500,000, driven by surging temporary migration (mostly foreign students).

Goldman with the note.

Chinese President Xi Jinping raised China’s desire to join the 12 member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) during talks with Anthony Albanese on Monday.

Goldman with the note.

Below is an excellent report from AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, on the outlook for global oil prices amid the break-out of war between Israel and the Middle-East: Key Points: The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term.

Citi with the note.

Deutsche with the note. I will post more when the full story comes to hand. This morning we’ve published the latest annual Long-Term Study, our flagship pieceof the year from my team. This year’s is called “The History (and Future) of Recessions”.

More support for my views on the China shock being global today: Just last month, economists at Wells Fargo estimated that if China’s total output dropped by a cumulative 12.5% over three years, US growth would dip 0.2 percentage point in 2025.

As an experiment, a friend of mine put some of my analysis into ChatGPT yesterday to see how it would be interpreted.

Goldman with the note.

Goldman with the note. Exports from three Asian economies for which trade data are released early (mainland China, Korea and Taiwan) fell 2.8% mom sa, at a similar pace to the previous month.

South Korean exports via Goldman.

Back in the days of the GFC, the Chimerican beast was born.

JPM with the note.

Europe is plunging into recession: Led by manufacturing: Services catching down: The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index fell for a second month running in June to 52.0, from 55.1 in May.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) appears increasingly isolated in its rejection of the role of profits in driving inflation and obsession with wage costs.

Albert Edwards of Societe General with a terrific note.

TSLombard with the note. China is over. The future is friend-shoring. China’s slowdown deepens amid scarring and ideological shift. The economic recovery in China has faltered as weak manufacturing demand, illustrated by deepening PPI deflation, has overwhelmed relatively robust services (see Chart 1).

UBS does some channel checks.

Pantheon with the note.