Global trade canary gasps


Goldman with the note.

Korea’s workday-adjusted exports in the first 20 days of November dropped 7.7%mom sa, pulling back from a 7.1% gain last month. Excluding volatile exports of ships and oil products, the pullback was limited to 1.5%, while total exports without work-day adjustments contracted 4.9%. Semiconductor exports also pulled back modestly after three months of gains. By destination, exports to the US rebounded to 2.7% mom sa, whereas exports to other major destinations including China fell. Imports fell more sharply than exports, by 9.4% mom sa, narrowing the trade deficit to -US$1.4bn (not seasonally adjusted) from -US$3.7bn last month.


We have seen elsewhere a small turn in the global manufacturing cycle but it is nascent and weak. 

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.