Australian Shares


Trading Day – 11th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up almost 1% this afternoon, after digesting last night’s Budget. Asian markets are up generally, with the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Hang Seng steady and Singapore up slightly. The AUD is rising past 1.085 again against the USD and 87 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Local


Budget buy bye

The budget does not seem to have spooked equity analysts, but it has not excited them, either. Perhaps, as Delusional Economics suggests, it is about the best that can be done in the circumstances — that is, not much. Balance the books, hope China continues to do well, nibble at the marging on skills shortage


Trading Day – 10th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down slightly at midday, with strong intra-day selling pressure. Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng and Singapore up. The AUD is steady at 1.07 against the USD and 86.5 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Short term price action as


Lilliput Inc.

Australia’s bigger companies, with a few exceptions such as BHP, Rio and News Corporation, are awful at globalisation. This is becoming obvious with the Australian dollar at such high levels. Global companies adapt to high currencies by relocating production elsewhere, acquiring offshore, manipulating their cross border value chains. That way they can at least respond,


Low flying birds

I am not sure exactly why people invest in Australian airlines. Qantas is busy cannibalising itself with Jetstar. This was always a danger for a member of a protected duopoly, that it would go for the low cost solution and get a low cost result. Virgin Blue, sorry, Virgin Australia, is not expected to pay a dividend and


Trading Day – 9th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1% at almost 4800 points after finding a bottom late last week. Other Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng up, Singapore steady after their weekend election results. Short term price action as illustrated last week showed a decelerating correction – it looks like


Trading Day – 6th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down but slowly recovering at 4740 points after last nights shock fall in commodity markets (oil down 10% alone, AUD/USD down to 1.05) Short term price action resembles a decelerating downtrend (note red curve under low points in last week on chart below). The index (XJO) is hovering above its 260


Sell in May – a repeat of 2010?

Regular readers may remember that each morning I peruse my bearish sounding “Crashlist” before starting the day trading the Australian equity markets. This list comprises the major currencies crosses, indices, gold, 10 year US T-Note and the US Dollar Index. A well deserved dip in “risk” markets across the world has been transpiring for most


Hating Telstra

The market’s scepticism about Telstra is one of the most sustained negative critiques of a big Australian corporate yet seen. It makes an interesting comparison to the euphoria about telcos in the first half of last decade. The scepticism may be partly attributable to the after effects of that era. The stock is on a


Trading Day – 5th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is steady at 4740 points with some intra-day buying support. Telstra is adding weight to the market, rallying up 1.4%. Retail sales figures surprised the unsurprisable economists, which has weighed slightly on retail stocks. The index (XJO) is dicing with its 200 day moving average (a closely watched indicator) and is still


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down almost 1% to 4755 points from a 4971 point high on the 11th April, a 4.3% total loss in the current dip. Momentum and other technical indicators continue to be very negative. The small short-lived Easter rally looks like being the “dead cat bounce” as part of an overall correction


Iron fist

The future of Australia’s coal exports look pretty assured. The International Energy Agency is forecasting that the growth between now and 2035 in China’s energy production will equal America’s, Europe’s and Japan’s current energy usage . Despite China’s falling carbon intensity, much of the expansion this will still come from coal. As I noted in


Westpac “boring”

WBC released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the broker presentation. Profit Reported Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) was up 14% to $3.961 billion with growth in cash earnings of 8% with all divisions (incl. NZ) experiencing growth. Similarly to ANZ,


Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1%, or 51 points at 4773 at 1pm AEST, below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are very negative as this broad selloff continues to hit all sectors. Three consecutive closes below the 15 day moving average are indicative of a correction pattern, but medium term


ANZ half-year update

ANZ released its first-half update today.  Below is a brief summary of some of the key figures along with graphs taken from the presentation. Profit Up 23% compared to 1HY10 results, however revenue is down whilst expenses are up.  It seems a 40% reduction in provisions for the same period has contributed the lions share


Bull and bear

One of the more entertaining aspects of market commentary is how superficially plausible diametrically opposite views often can be. Being a bear by temperament, I am inclined to think the market is looking very vulnerable, especially industrials. The impact of the high $A has to have some negative effect on the the non-mining industry base,


Trading Day

Midday Summary The market is continuing a broad selloff, as the major constituents across all sectors are down after midday. The ASX200 is down almost 0.75% and is teetering below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are negative but not conclusive of a broad correction as this is likely to be a


Desperately seeking growth stocks

The stock market is developing a bearish character. The impact of the high Australian dollar is being felt on earnings prospects and the weakening housing market is entrenching the two speed economy. Defensive strategies are being dusted off. But given that the options are not especially attractive elsewhere, one possible defensive strategy is to do


Australian Share Market Weekly Wrap

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation


Trading Day 29th April

Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another


Profiting from a property slump

In yesterday’s article I looked at what a housing correction may do to the Australian share market – both from a macro economic point of view as well as the company level.  We discussed which stocks would be exposed and some that may not.  So now let’s see what opportunities a correction may present the


Trading Day 28th April

Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion


Dollar downgrades

The impact of the high Australian dollar is becoming a feature in broker forecasts and broker sentiment. Southern Cross, having blamed the Federal government for all Australia’s problems, now seems to believe that some of it is due to the high currency. Perhaps they have woken to the joys of reading MacroBusiness. A Southern Cross report today


Housing corrections & shares

We talk a lot on MacroBusiness about an Australian housing bubble.  H&H, UE and DE are doing a sterling job of demonstrating Australian house prices are historically high by any meaningful measure.  Plenty of people – in fact most in the mainstream media and real estate industry – disagree with them, some vehemently so. But


Trading Day – 27th April

Summary After peaking sharply on the open, the market has settled slightly up after the almost week long Easter/ANZAC break, at 4918 points. NOTE: as I was compiling this report, the PPI figures came out and the market has sunk over 20 points after midday. The short term trend remains weak but positive on momentum,


Trading Day 21st April – green across the board

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index (and others) Its green across the board: all stocks, futures and commodities are up and gold has surpassed $US1500 and change – but paradoxically


Woolies vs Coles

There has been a lot of commentary about Coles’ improved performance when compared with Woolworths’. Stephen Bartholomeusz enthuses about the “renaissance of Coles” although he is careful to  say that Woolworths is doing alright as well.  Elizabeth Knight enthuses about the “dazzling sales number from Coles raises the stakes in the mother of all supermarket


Dow set to pop the champagne

What a difference a couple of days can make. Earlier this week we had global inflation concerns, with a tightening from China weighing on markets. This was followed by growing sovereign concerns on restructure talk in Europe’s periphery and S&P’s downgrade to the outlook for the US’s sovereign debt rating. While these fundamentals are still


Trading Day: 20th April

Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has bounced back slightly this morning on reflated overseas markets, up 0.7% around midday. As I said yesterday, the market


The gov’ment done it

An investment note by Southern Cross looks at the effect of Australia’s political leadership on the stock market, which is a subject not often addressed, at least by analysts. Privately, many say that the Resources Super Profits Tax has scared off foreign investors for a very long time because it made Australia look “socialist”. If