Commodities

Here are the iron ore charts for February 27, 2014: Rebar futures rallied a little as well. Markets again have the feel of an orderly destock. Derivatives are looking for a bottom (fruitlessly in my view) and spot is melting not crashing.

From the FT, the battle for survival of those iron ore traders marked for extinction goes on: Imports could continue to climb as iron ore traders take the place of steel traders in providing credit to mills.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 25, 2013: Less panic today but all red nonetheless.

From the China Securities Journal: According to CISA statistics, by the end of early February inventory of the key steel manufacturers amounted to a record high of 16,328,400 tons, up 20.02% MoM.

From BofAML: Another news which was widely circulated over the past weekend and severely hit markets today was about a mid-sized bank’s decision to halt funding for developers in 1Q14.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 24, 2013: So, the two descending triangles I pointed to yesterday in iron ore paper markets both broke down decisively.

A special evening post for those that trade the iron ore majors SDRs or other overnight markets, from Reuters late today: Chinese steel and iron ore futures on Monday fell to their lowest levels since they were launched following media reports of tighter lending to steel and other property-linked sectors, dimming the outlook for demand.

Bloomie has a scary report with more details of China’s iron ore for cash scams: Xiao Jiashou, known as the “steel-trading king” in Shanghai, had his assets frozen as China Minsheng Banking Corp.

The World Steel Association has release its January figures and it’s more worrying news for iron ore followers: World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) was 130 million tonnes (Mt) in January 2014, a decrease of -0.4% compared to January 2013.

Fine below the iron ore price charts for February 21,2014: This is not a happy technical study.

Mac Bank today weighs into the great Chinese iron ore port stocks debate today with a bullish explanation: The apparent destock reported by Mysteel certainly explains the recent price weakness but it contrasts with widely publicised data showing a strong rise in the volume of iron ore inventory being held at ports in China.

Here is the updated Chinese steel mill iron ore inventory data we’ve been sweating on and the news is good for iron ore producers in the short term.

Here are the iron ore charts for February 20,2014: Nothing all that bad here.

From the SMH: It’s not only the region’s sharemarkets and the Australian dollar that are down on the weak Chinese manufacturing numbers, China’s steel futures fell the most in about a month and Dalian-traded iron ore also dropped.

From Mac Bank today: Iron ore inventory held by smaller mills in China has declined sharply over the last month, according to data from Mysteel.

Charts for February 19, 2014 below:   In news the FMG bulls were out yesterday: …That a serious bank of supply is about to hit the market cannot be contested.

From Credit Suisse:   FMG announced in-line underlying 1H’14 NPAT of $1.72 vs consensus $1.72bn (CS: $1.65bn). Strong EBITDA at $3.22bn versus $3.11bn consensus (CS: $3.15bn). ■      Consolidation of FMG Iron Bridge: Sale of 31% to Formosa added $108mn income and $123mn cash. ■      Surprise dividend doubling: 10¢ps vs consensus 6.5¢ps (CS: 5¢ps), equal to full-year FY13 dividend.

The MSM spruik machine turns its eye to iron ore today and likes what it sees.

Clive Palmer has backed off his attempt to have Sino Iron declared bankrupt: Mr Palmer claimed last week that Citic’s subsidiary Sino Iron, which is building a magnetite iron ore project on tenements owned by Mr Palmer, had ceased paying him ‘‘normal administrative costs’’ that had been paid without issue to date.

From CIMB this morning on the BHP result: Tax of US$3.7b versus US$4.7b implied by consensus and CIMB of US$4.5b.

I haven’t caught up coking coal for a while but it’s worth reminding ourselves of what a commodity market can do once the balance of supply shifts.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 17, 2014:   All good in iron ore land with Chinese credit widely and wrongly seen as super!