China Economy

The AFR has some exciting news on the Chinese rebalancing (or lack thereof) project this morning: China’s top economic planning official said the country was in the process of rapid urbanisation that would drive growth over the next decade, but said manufacturing was having “huge difficulties” due to overcapacity.

Honestly, if it were not for the aggressive credit numbers in January, I’d be ready to call the Chinese growth recovery dead on arrival. The latest survey to confirm that the bounce is fading is the HSBC services PMI (which is different to the official non-manufacturing PMI that includes construction and other stuff).

Find below an entertaining video from the US 60 Minutes program (h/t Gunnamatta) on China’s ghost cities.

Over the weekend China released its non-manufacturing PMI fell to 54.5 in February from 56.2.

As I said at the beginning of this year and have repeated several times since, do not mistake this new Chinese cycle for another bloom of private sector super growth.

China’s recovery ain’t looking so hot with the release of the official PMI this afternoon.

Cross-posted from FTAlphaville.

Well, although the equity market is yet to wake up to it, the data points suggesting that the peak in this little global growth rebound is already behind us are starting to add up.

It seems China news is also hitting the ASX today.

The MNI Flash Business Sentiment Indicator for February is on a total tear up 6.63 points to 61.79.

Chinese FDI fell 7.3% in January, well ahead of consensus at -4.2%.

China’s January inflation figures are out and some will take reassurance from the on consensus 2% figure.

Sorry this one is a bit late.

China’s January Services PMI is out and is the first of the Chinese indicators to break out towards higher growth levels: The HSBC China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further expansion of business activity during January.

China January non-manufacturing PMI firmed slightly in January up o.1 to 56.2, a pretty decent rate of expansion: The internals were a little less encouraging with leading indicators falling.

China official PMI just just printed 50.4 for January, below consensus at 51.

By Leith van Onselen The Washington Post has an interesting article showing the huge growth of coal consumption in China, which has grown so much that China is now burning nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined (see next chart).

Over the long weekend China released its industrial profits figures for December, an important release given it offers a guide to the health of big business and is a direct input into GDP.

The good news keeps rolling today with China’s January Flash PMI posting a solid gain: Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 51.9 (51.5 in December). 24-month high. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 52.2 (51.9 in December).

Find below the Conference Board’s Leading Index for China in December, up by a point, slowing its recent acceleration path: This index is not bad.

China’s December QTR GDP is out and slightly missed consensus of 2.2% coming in at 2%, actually down from the September QTR which was revised down 1bps to 2.1% Somehow, however, this added up to a beat for year on year GDP, which came it 7.9% versus 7.8% expected.