Following on from Koshee’s recent delivery of bad news for the Australian housing market, Louis Christopher from SQM research appeared on sunrise this morning to give the market a full strength bear mauling. His prediction of this years damage is as follows: CAPITAL CITIES (worst to best) Perth (total 2011 9.8%) – Currently down 3.8% from peak. Expected
Australian property is one the widest and deepest asset bubbles in the history of capitalism. Any objective assessment of this “market” can lead to no other conclusion.
With a long history of commitment to home ownership, Australians have always been prepared to structure their finances around property. This showed up in a total dwelling stock to GDP ratio that persisted around a very high 150% from 1960 to 1990. In the late 1990s that shot up to 200% and then embarked on near ceaseless climb to 360% today.
There are many other guides to the extreme overvaluation of Australian property. The ratio of household debt (overwhelmingly mortgages) to disposable income is the highest in the world at 186%. Median price to income multiples are anything from 12x in Sydney, to 10x in Melbourne, down to still immensely unaffordable 6x in smaller capitals, up from 3-4x times in all over the long run for all. The extent of overvaluation is plain.
What makes the Australian property bubble unique is the degree to which it has warped the nation’s political economy. Once a diverse and vibrant resources and manufacturing economy, over the twenty years that the Australian housing bubble grew that shape changed completely. An huge proportion of the debt underpinning Australian property is borrowed from offshore, almost $1 trillion, mostly by its big four major banks. This perpetually inflated the local currency, as well as input costs like land prices, which dramatically diminished Australian competitiveness and drove tradable sectors like manufacturing offshore. From 14% of output in the 1970s, manufacturing hit 5% of output in 2016, the lowest in the OECD.
Moreover, the centrality of Australia property to the wealth of the national polity increasingly distorted policy and even elections. In the 2008 global financial crisis, the then Labor government bailed out the the big four banks with guarantees to their offshore loans, rewriting the entire rule book for Australia’s financial architecture in one panicked afternoon. Public subsidies poured into demand-side stimulus, as well as RMBS markets. Any notion that Australian property was a “market” evaporated. Australian property was, and remains, a kind of asset quango, a public/private partnership in support of the retirement plans of its pre-dominant Baby Boomer generation.
MacroBusiness cover all elements of Australian property daily.
These guarantees exist to this day and reached their peak distortion to the political economy in 2016 when the ruling Liberal/National Party Coalition government fought and won an election in the singular defense of “negative gearing”, the principal tax policy most responsible for investor’s favouring property over other asset classes.
Contemporary Australia does not just have a property bubble, it has morphed into Propertocracy in which the primacy of house prices determines who leads the country, what policies are chosen and which generations prosper.
It shouldn’t really surprise anyone that housing doom and gloom is continuing into Q2 2011. The leading indicators were certainly bearish, AFG had this to say in early May. AFG, Australia’s largest mortgage broker, has called on the Government to address weak consumer confidence, after figures for April showed mortgage sales fell by nearly 10%
Back when the housing market was booming everyone got their slice of the pie there were no losers so no one needed to argue any particular point or methodology. As long as the cash was flowing in from the banks and shadow banks offshore borrowing the system grew and it was all smiles. Investors and home owners
As you may have noticed from H&H’s bullhawk post, RPData has released some new charts on how the housing market is travelling and specifically the latest data on capital growth. As I expected nothing much has changed since I last saw their data, when I said. I can only repeat myself. There is no driver for
The mightiest of Australia’s bullhawks (half housing bull, half rate hawk), Christopher Joye, today published his latest assessment of house prices at Business Spectator. Let’s take a look: A lot of fuss is being made about house prices doing, well, nothing. For the record, this is the outcome we have correctly predicted since early 2010. Year-on-year,
AMP Capital Investors chief economist, Shane Oliver, is a curious beast. Recently he has been arguing that Australian housing is not a bubble. Here’s an example of Dr Oliver’s “no bubble” thesis from an article published yesterday in SmartCompany: I don’t regard Australian house prices as a bubble. While there was probably a bubble seven or eight
The number of people and organisations waking up to the fact that their “old growth” business models have suddenly imploded continues to grow. Yesterday it was the Housing Industry Association’s (HIA’s) turn to use its last gasp of air to scream at the government for even more stimulus for housing. Fresh cracks have appeared in
As Houses and Holes points out this morning, jawboning the RBA is an increasing past time. But not even my august blogging companion fathomed how suddenly widespread it has become. And it seems the shift is being driven by the Murdoch Press. A few months ago News limited’s Courier Mail would happily produce articles like this:
Michael Yardney is a prominent property investor/advisor who writes a regular blog on Smart Company. Last week, Mr Yardney posted an article entitled What history can teach us about what’s ahead for property, which is aimed at calming nerves about the Australian housing market and convincing readers that residential housing is still a superior long-term
Australia’s home of business interests, Business Spectator, has struck another blow for schadenfreude this morning with a spectacular appeal for help for the mortgage sector from Mark Bouris. Bouris, the suave mortgage maestro of Wizard mortgages fame, has this morning leapt into the yawning gulf between Australia’s new growth model (resources) and the old growth model
As I explained last week, the biggest driver in housing for the next decade has only really just begun to effect the market. However there is already growing evidence that the housing market is heading for trouble, and it isn’t just the South East of Queensland. In some other areas the news had become very bad. WA’s property market has fallen
The claim that Australian home prices will stagnate whilst incomes catch-up is a prediction commonly made by housing commentators. And this view is not without precedent. Between 2004 and 2009, Sydney home prices remained relatively flat, meaning that prices fell in both inflation-adjusted and income-adjusted terms (see below chart). It behooves us then to assess the
As mentioned by Delusional Economics yesterday, the bastion of the Aussie punter, David Koch, has issued a warning that Australian home values are on the slide. The question now is how far will prices fall and over what time period? SQM Research’s Louis Christopher recently issued a newsletter predicting falls of 5-10%, whereas many bank
David Koch is an interesting chap. Not because I think he is able to provide valuable economic insight, but because I feel he is the average Aussie’s TV economist. So once Koshee says something it means two things to me. Whatever it is happened six months ago. Everyone in the country now knows about it.
It seems the ah…fans…of housing are getting nervous. I’m not sure if there has been recent guild meeting but last week saw a number of bullish property pieces. It’s worth assessing their merits. In the latest Eureka Report, Monique Sasson Wakelin penned an attack on the “bubble brigade”. In it she argued the real question
Another weekend, another dive into what is rumbling around my thought box. AFG Mortgage Index. AFG’s latest mortgage report came out this week. Their overview of the lending market was fairly bearish. AFG, Australia’s largest mortgage broker, has called on the Government to address weak consumer confidence, after figures for April showed mortgage sales fell
How do you lose $160,000 over 15 years? Buy a Noosa apartment. Savagely discounted prices fetched by receivers for apartments previously owned by former Sunshine Coast tourism boss Phillip Harding has sent shock waves through Noosa with some estimating the state of the market is now as bad as the Gold Coast. Over the past
It was only a matter of time. UBS let the warning out to investors this morning. Arrears rose alarmingly. Early warning sign for consumers? ANZ’s arrears levels have risen sharply. Since September its >30 days arrears have risen 41% to $5.8b, while >90 days are up 26% to $2b. We believe higher arrears are heavily
The Unconventional Economist posted on the bearish musings of Louis Christopher overnight. Mr Christopher’s thoughts looks fine and good, but made little sense to me. Here is the quote: I still do not believe this is going to be the big one- that being the big 40% house price crash. However for many vendors, it’s
In today’s SQM Research weekly newsletter, SQM’s Managing Director, Louis Christopher, provides a sobering assessment of the state of Australia’s housing market. Below are the key extracts, together with some charts and data added for additional context. “The housing market’s downturn is now happening at pace and there is no imminent recovery in sight. These
What is it that determines house prices? Supply & demand, availability of credit, government subsidies, taxes, or a level of value in the buyers head? I think it’s time we try to put a little discipline into the debate. Clearly many things go into determining house prices but with a little thought we can perhaps understand
Find above a snap shot of the ABS eight city house price index released today. Relative to Rismark, falls are a slower than in Brisbane and Perth but much more widespread, and larger in Melbourne and Sydney. Here is a graph of the eight cities since 2002, It is a long way up to the
This shouldn’t be a surprise to any daily MacroBusiness readers, but here it is. Capital city home prices continued their downward slide in March, posting their worst slump in at least 12 years as the property market showed more signs of sagging demand. Brisbane and Perth fell the most. National city home values slipped 0.2
I have previously spoken about my annoyance with the liberties available to the Real Estate industry because their agents are do not have to conform with the Australian Financial Services Licencing Act. I find this a bizarre legal exception, most especially because the housing market represents $4 trillion of national wealth versus $1.2 trillion in
Back on the 31st of March Bill Evans from Westpac presented a talk to the Real Estate Institute of Queensland(REIQ). However I am unsure whether anyone liked what he actually said, because the only reference I can find to the presentation’s contents is on some obscure websites such as this one. As the Reserve Bank of Australia
Over the past two months, the calls to wind-back negative gearing have grown louder, spearheaded by Fairfax media. In early March, Fairfax’s Michael McNamara wrote a fantastic article arguing to abolish negative gearing. This article was followed up in Fairfax by Saul Eslake, who lambasted Australia’s dysfunctional tax system, especially negative gearing, for the way in which it
Well it seems the last fortress of denial is starting to see some real estate trouble with the Daily Telegraph reporting recently on Sydney’s market. Sydney’s great property divide is being turned on its head, with the wealthy Eastern Suburbs suffering a shock 15 per cent slump in property prices, while values in the city’s
Earlier this month, the Western Australian (WA) Chamber of Commerce noted that the WA economy had fallen into technical recession, experiencing two successive quarters of negative economic growth in the last six months of 2010: Western Australia is generally regarded as Australia’s economic engine room with its booming resources sector, but its manufacturing and retail sectors are struggling. The WA Chamber
I first mentioned National Consumer Credit Protection back in early January when I suggested it could have an effect on the housing market. This certainly reads like it should improve credit standards, especially if any of these things were actually allowed previous to this new legislation; and we applaud this legislation if this is the
I haven’t mentioned Harry Triguboff previously. For those who aren’t aware he is also known as “High rise Harry” and is the head of Meriton. Meriton are the largest developer of apartments in Australia with around 50,000 under their name. Harry is a huge supporter of “Big” Australia and is obviously a person who would