Australian interest rates

Via Dr Ed Yardeni: The Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) came up with lots of headline-grabbing shock-and-awe programs over the past 10 years in reaction to the Great Financial Crisis.

No QE says monetary curmudgeon Stephen Grenville: QE1 was a powerful instrument in rescuing key financial markets which had frozen, but this experience has no relevance for Australia in the foreseeable future.

Via the AFR over the weekend: The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority is looking for a new head of policy and advice, following the resignation this week of Pat Brennan, who had responsibility for developing the regulator’s policies on banks, insurers and super funds.

Aussie long bonds are insane.

From the Lunatic RBA just now: Risks to the Outlook Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor Today I am going to talk about some of the key risks around the outlook for the Australian economy.

All new highs for long end Aussie bonds again today: The very long end has cratered to near inversion with cash with the 15 year just 2bps away: This is screaming recession at Australia and declaring the extinction of inflation.

Via the Lunatic: The Usual Transmission – Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions Christopher Kent[*]Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Address to Finance & Treasury AssociationSydney – 13 August 2019 Introduction I’d like to start by thanking the Finance and Treasury Association for the opportunity to speak to you today about the transmission of monetary policy.

Via the Lunatic RBA’s recent appearance in Parliament: It’s possible that we end up at the zero lower bound [for the cash rate].

Yawn!

To describe the Lunatic RBA as slow moving would be to do a disservice to the tortoise.

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Over the past few weeks, the bond rally has taken us to uncharted territory.

It’s a tradition.

Via Phil Lowe in Parliament today: Thank you for this opportunity to share our views on the Australian economy and the RBA’s important public policy responsibilities.

A speech from the Dead Man of APRA today: Good morning.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: The RBNZ has surprised, by cutting rates 50bps at its meeting today.

From Bill Evans of Westpac: As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00% at today’s Board meeting.

Just in from the RBA: At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.00 per cent.

Via Martin North today: The DFA mortgage stress tracker to the end of July 2019 is released today.

Aussie bonds are screaming recession risk now.

From The Shadow: Strong Conviction that Rates Need to Stay Put: Shadow Board Australia’s inflation rate, at 1.6% (June quarter), 0.3 percentage points higher than in the March quarter, remains well below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target range of 2-3%.

Via FTAlphaville: Happy Friday Berlin!

Ah Kouk.

Via Bill Evans of Westpac: The Reserve Bank Board meets on August 6 to consider whether to extend the sequence of rate cuts in June and July for another month.

The rally roared higher as RBA cuts shifted forward on the trade war with yields at record lows across the curve: The curve is now inverted right out past the 7 year.