Australian interest rates

Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Aussie bonds are attracting wider interest.

Roy Morgan’s latest mortgage stress survey shows that 32.3% of mortgage households were at risk of mortgage stress in August, with 22.7% extremely at risk: Mortgage stress was tracking at its highest levels since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in mid-2008, when the official cash rate hit 7%.

Here’s the animation of the fattening lava tongue poking from South America.

In a classic scheduling error, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the August quarter consumer price inflation (CPI) report a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the official cash rate by 0.25%.

Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously lifted the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.60%—a 15-year high.

Wall-to-wall panic over interest rates today as the RBA readies another hike.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hand down its interest rate decision later today, with financial markets and economists widely tipping a 0.25% increase in the official cash rate (OCR).

Australian PMIs are peeling away from the pack and not in a good way.

Much of the discussion around interest rates revolves around Australian households, who are facing another two to three interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which would take the official cash rate to 4.85% or 5.10% – the highest level since 2008.

As reported earlier, Australia’s unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6% – the nation’s highest rate since October 2021.

War headlines today: Hormuz ship struck by an unknown projectile and abandoned.

Via S&P. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 50.8 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Aug: 52.7) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.4 (Aug: 53.2) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (Aug: 52.0) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 46.4 (Aug: 49.6) Here’s the money quote.

Two major banks have joined the chorus, tipping that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the official cash rate at next Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting.

There is no slowing in the Godzilla El Nino.

Governor Bullock was blatantly hawkish in her statement before Australia’s parliament on Friday.

The US CPI was higher than expected on Friday night.

Bloxo elegantly captured the RBA’s recent choices as between stagflation and recession. It has chosen the latter. Yesterday, two key governors hit the hustings to warn folks that more tightening is coming. The first was the adorable Sarah Hunter, Assistant governor (Economic).

Rate hike calls are reaching screaming levels. Goldman has pivoted. Housing Price Collapse: Australian capital-city prices down 4.6% from March peak, projected 15% decline in Sydney/Melbourne by mid-2027 (largest downturn on record), triggering 130bp drag on consumer spending growth and pressuring GDP via negative wealth effects.

I argued last week that Australia’s globally high inflation is homegrown, as illustrated by services inflation tracking at 4.1% in the year to July, well above the broader trimmed mean inflation rate of 3.6%. Housing inflation is posing a particular problem for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The ferrous complex is trading like Chinese stimulus is flowing like the good old days.

Last week’s economic data shook Australia’s interest rate markets.