RBA chooses recession
Bloxo elegantly captured the RBA’s recent choices as between stagflation and recession. It has chosen the latter.
Yesterday, two key governors hit the hustings to warn folks that more tightening is coming. The first was the adorable Sarah Hunter, Assistant governor (Economic).
I think the Board have been pretty clear. The staff as well. Certainly myself, pretty clear that inflation is top priority right now. As you said, inflation is above target, has been for some time. And I think more than that, in the August SMP, we’re pretty clear to say we think that the risk to inflation relative to that baseline forecast was skewed to the upside. I mentioned oil just now. That was one of those risks, and we are definitely concerned about that in recent moves. I think also looking at that July data, it’s only one month. You’ve got to be careful. One month of data, you never know. It can sort of swing around and be a little bit volatile. But notwithstanding, if we looked at the components of that, where we did see strength were in a lot of the domestic factors, so market services, new dwelling construction costs that come through, and we talked about rents earlier on, just as three examples. So yeah, look, we’re definitely concerned about that. The Board are concerned about that, and I think they’ve been pretty clear that they don’t really have tolerance for inflation to continue to be, and an expectation that it remains above target for an extended period. So what actually happens? Well, we’ve got more data and more water to go under the bridge before the next meeting. But yeah, the Board I hope have made really clear their concern, and the staff share it. We are concerned about inflation, and if there is a sense that inflation’s going to be stronger than we think in the context of our forecast, that the Board may well have to raise interest rates to tackle that.
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