Australian interest rates

From Bill Evans at Westpac: As universally expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 1.50%.

RBA decision for March: At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

Morgan Stanley takes a peak: We think regulators are increasingly likely to cut the 10% IPL speed limit given concerns on housing lending.

From the Shadow RBA today: Stronger than expected economic growth provides welcome news to the Australian people.

From Domain: Philip Lowe has some high-powered backing if he leaves interest rates on hold Tuesday as widely expected.

The Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge is out and crashed back to earth down -0.3% in February after several strong months.

I’m losing count of how many pundits are swinging to rate hikes.

Via Deutsche: From Q1-17, the ABS will add ‘attached dwellings’ (i.e. apartments and semis) to the measure of ‘new dwelling purchase’ in the CPI to better capture the trend towards higher-density living.

From APRA head Wayne Byers today in parliament: I will just start with a short statement of a few key issues currently on APRA’s plate.

From the AFR: CBA, the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, is raising rates for the second time in two weeks and reintroducing some fees.

Form Phil Lowe’s Friday appearance in Parliament: Mr THISTLETHWAITE: In May 2016, the ABC reported that there was an internal RBA briefing note under FOI that said, ‘Any change which discourages negative gearing may be good from a financial stability perspective.’ Is that still the view of the bank?

From Peter Martin: The head of the Reserve Bank has dashed hopes of a further cut in interest rates, pleading for people to “focus on other things other than quarter of a per cent moves in the cash rate”.

Bit of a Freudian slip today from RBA chief Phil Lowe in parliament: One area that we are watching closely is the cycle in residential construction activity, as the upswing has helped support the economy over recent years.

Via Banking Day: APRA will insist on more consistent rules on the assessment – and reassessment of borrowers over loan serviceability, a measure intended to bolster other rules that, in effect, may restrain credit growth.

After yesterday’s suggestion that a brick would do as good a job as Phil Lowe at the RBA owing political sensitivities, Goldman Sachs offers this chart on central bank independence: The Goldman piece was about highlighting how the US Fed doesn’t actually have that many legal protections if Trump decides to test his powers.

Via the ABC: Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has revealed the central dilemma the Reserve Bank confronts — it would like lower interest rates to boost the economy, but it cannot cut rates because it would add further fuel to the hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets.

Pretty right here so long as there is no final mad fiscal stimulus for house prices.

In a news speech today RBA head Bubble-o-Phil compares the Australian and Canadian bubbles: Australia and Canada – Shared Experience Thank you for inviting me to address this year’s Australia-Canada Leadership Forum.

From Bill Evans at Westpac: As expected, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting of the Board of the Reserve Bank provided little additional insight to the Governor’s post-meeting statement and the February Statement on Monetary Policy.

From UBS: ABS will introduce the 17th series of the CPI in 2H17 The ABS typically reweights the CPI every 5-6 years, with the 17th series due to be introduced in 2H17.

A nice note here from Bill Evans at Westpac: For the last two weeks, I have been in the US visiting investors; hedge funds; corporates and officials.

I was once a fan of Mr Lowe.