Australian Economy

It appears MB has finally beaten some sense into Ross Gittins: When people hear news reports about redundancies at this factory and that, many conclude we must be heading for recession.

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan Research (RMR) last night released its unemployment estimate for the month of February, which registered a large jump in the unemployment rate to 12.3% from 11.3% in January (see next chart).

From the AFR: The federal government rejected ­Qantas Airways’ bid for direct assistance based on advice from two investment banks, the federal Treasury, the Department of Infrastructure and accounting firm PwC, sources said.

From Callam Pickering at locked-BS: The continued growth in building approvals will be a welcome sight for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is relying on the housing sector to fill in some of the hole left by the impending decline in mining investment.

Also from the RBA: Preliminary estimates for February indicate that the index declined by 1.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after declining by 1.6 per cent in January (revised).

From Sky News: The jobless rate could soar to 6.5 per cent this year, and prompt another interest rate cut by the central bank, as the mining investment boom unwinds.

The Kouk is back today with another back flip.

Forgive the spelling, the original does not respond well to spam filters for some reason!

From Westpac today: Q4 net exports: +0.6ppts Net exports made a sizeable contribution to growth in Q4 of 0.65ppts (rounding down to 0.6ppts). This outcome was a fraction below expectations (market median 0.7ppt, Westpac 0.8ppts.) Exports advanced in Q4 by +2.4%qtr, +6.5%yr, a positive result underpinned by the resources sector.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence survey has fallen another 0.8 points to 109.6 points.

By Leith van Onselen NIB chief, Mark Fitzgibbon, has reportedly written to Health Minister, Peter Dutton, calling for an end to “risk equalisation” – a policy that forces health funds to subsidise the costs of other insurers’ most expensive members, claiming that the current system disadvantages young people.

Who said the universe was a wasteland of indifference?

For the past few months I’ve noted that it was likely that we’d see a firming in the labour market in the first of half of 2014 following decent Christmas sales and the bounce in housing construction and before the capex cliff kicks in hard in the second half.

I don’t have a lot of time for the Dun & Bradstreet Business Expectations Survey.

By Leith van Onselen I wrote last week how the Coalition’s tough stance on copyright, along with anti-competitive dealings by Australian networks, would likely encourage greater internet piracy by Australians denied of opportunity to purchase content legally.

Morgan Stanley has an argument today that I can’t swallow: Can Australia cycle from engineering to resi and non-resi?

It looks like my quick post on the TD inflation number this morning was hasty!

The ABS has released quarterly business indicators, which are an input into GDP, here is Westpac’s take: The Q4 survey provided surprises in both directions. Inventories surprised to the downside. By contrast, incomes surprised to the upside – both wages and profits (on an adjusted basis).

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released Mineral & Petroleum Exploration data for the December quarter, which revealed sharp falls in both mineral and petroleum exploration expenditure. Nationally, expenditure on minerals exploration fell by a seasonally-adjusted $75.8 million (-12.5%) over the December quarter.

ANZ has released job ads for February and the news finally better with a 5.1% rise.

Fresh from the home builder’s lobby: The first month of 2014 was a positive one for new homes sales with an increase of 0.5 per cent recorded in January, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry.

By Leith van Onselen Over the weekend, Prime Minister Tony Abbott signaled that the Government would boost infrastructure investment in order to improve the nation’s productivity and see it over the mining investment cliff.

From TD Securities, February monthly inflation came in at 0.2% month or month and 2.7% year on year.

From Ross Gittins today: In political economist Mancur Olson’s pathbreaking book, The Rise and Decline of Nations, published in 1982, he argued that a country’s economic stability ultimately leads to decline as it becomes increasingly dominated by organised interest groups, each seeking to advance their interests at the expense of others.