Australian Economy

By Leith van Onselen General Motors Holden has today warned that the Australian car industry could close earlier than expected if local component, which are critical to the supply chain, are denied access to industry assistance promised by the former Labor Government.

From Westpac: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 3% in Aug following declines of 0.3% in Jul, and 1.1% in Jun.

By Leith van Onselen US economics Nobel Laureate, Ed Prescott, claims that Australia’s top marginal income tax rate is too high, and threatens Australia’s growth.

A chart here from Shane Oliver asks if business confidence is leading consumer confidence: My answer is no, I still expect households to win this tug-of-war.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its Wage Price Index for the June quarter of 2014, which revealed a continuation of soft wages growth across the economy, with annual wages growth also tracking at the lowest rate in the series’ 16-year history (see below charts).

From Bill Evans at Westpac: This is a pleasing result.

By Leith van Onselen Following his proclamation earlier this month that Australia is facing a “jobs boom”, Adam Carr appears to be in damage control and seeking to play-down the significance of this month’s poor labour force report from the ABS.

By Leith van Onselen Garry Bowditch, chief executive of the University of Wollongong’s SMART research ­institute, has delivered a damning assessment of Australia’s infrastructure provision, claiming that $4 billion to $5 billion is being lost to cost blowouts annually on new roads, rail lines and bridges.

Cross-posted from The Conversation Australia’s migration policy has shifted significantly in the past 20 years, leaving a system subject to widespread rorting and controversy.

From NAB today comes the business survey, which is powering on headline numbers: Business confidence again surprised on the upside, supported by better business conditions (largely reflecting sales and profits) and a surge in retailer confidence. Firms still unfazed about the Budget (for now).

From the RBA today: We examine how the structure of Australian production and trade has been affected by the expansion of global production networks.

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research (RMR) consumer confidence index has fallen for a second consecutive week after hitting the highest level since late-January.

By Leith van Onselen The Government’s plan to make job seekers aged under 30 wait six months before receiving Youth Allowance or Newstart has taken another hit, with Family First Senator, Bob Day, declaring war on the Budget measure.

Press reactions to last week’s “shocking” unemployment number continue today and, as usual, are far behind the curve.

From Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, comes analysis of today’s Statement of Monetary Policy from the RBA: We were surprised to see that the Reserve Bank lowered its growth forecast for both 2014 and 2015 from 2.75% and 3.25% respectively to 2.5% and 3%.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of June, which registered another significant fall in net long-term and permanent migration into Australia.

By Leith van Onselen June was a bad month for Australia’s tourism industry, with the release yesterday of the overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures showing a solid fall in the number of inbound tourists and an increase in out-bound tourists.