Australian Economy

By Leith van Onselen Roy Morgan’s annual Christmas retail sales forecasts, conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association, suggest Australians will spend nearly $51.5 billion across retail stores during the 46-day Christmas trading period from 9 November to 24 December.

By Leith van Onselen Like clockwork, Australia’s biggest retailers have joined Australia’s biggest property developers in rejecting calls to cut Australia’s immigration intake.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Our view is that the economy is overshooting We believe that growth will eventually slow as timely leading indicators [such as PMIs] are suggesting.

From Gotti today: This risk was made very clear to me when I attended this week’s FINSIA Regulators luncheon, which was addressed by senior officials from the Reserve Bank, APRA and ASIC.

Via the AFR with the scoop: The three months to October 31 is the first quarter for which listed Myer has not provided the market with its sales figures.

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s ABS labour force release for October revealed a softening Australian youth labour market – i.e.

By Leith van Onselen As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for October, which registered a solid 32,800 increase in total employment but no change in the headline unemployment rate (still 5.0%), driven by a 0.1% rebound in labour force participation.

The ABS has released its labour market report for October, which reveals that unemployment remains flat at 50.% despite a 32,800 lift in employment (mostly full-time). However, growth in hours worked was weak: The key points from the release are: TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 25,400 to 12,665,800.

By Leith van Onselen Over recent years, a swathe of economists have warned the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence could replace many of today’s jobs, leading to an even larger pool of underemployed and underutilised workers.

By Leith van Onselen For several years, economists have projected a rebound in wages growth as Australia’s unemployment falls towards the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), which the RBA claims is around 5.0%.

By Leith van Onselen It seems Melbournians are finally cottoning on to the direct link between Melbourne’s immigration-fuelled population explosion, according to a regular opinion survey by Sydney University’s Institute of Transport and Logistics.

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s wages price index released by the ABS revealed a firming of annual wages growth to a still-anaemic 2.2%: When adjusted for underlying inflation, real wages firmed to 0.4% growth in the year to September: However, there remains a big disconnect between the private and public sectors.

By Leith van Onselen The lack of planning and foresight to cope with the never-ending population (immigration) influx into Australia’s big cities never ceases to amaze.

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its Labor Price Index for the September quarter of 2018, which revealed more disappointing wages growth: According to the ABS, wages grew by just 0.62% (s.a.) and 0.54% (trend) in the September quarter.

Via Westpac: Consumer sentiment has continued to recover from the mild setback in the September quarter.

By Leith van Onselen Last year, News.com.au published an illuminating article profiling a skilled Australian IT worker that had arrived home from working as a project manager at Amazon’s Seattle campus but could not gain employment despite hundreds of job applications: AT 25 years old, James was living a tech-head’s dream.

By Leith van Onselen Today’s Lending Finance data for September, released by the ABS, revealed that personal and renovation finance continue to collapse.

From DFA’s latest household survey of 52,000 Australian households: The results from the DFA household surveys to the end of October 2018 are out today.