In late 2017, the Canadian Government launched a massive increase in the country’s immigration program, announcing that one million migrants would be let in over the following three years, with an annual migrant intake of 340,000 considered the “new normal”.
Canada’s immigration minister, Ahmed Hussen, claimed the new targets would lift immigration to nearly 1% of the population by 2020, which would help offset an aging demographic.
After Canada’s immigration intake fell to only 184,000 new permanent residents in 2020, the lowest since 1998, the government announced a plan to import 1.2 million migrants in just three years, with Canada aiming to bring 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. Further, this monster immigration intake will be achieved by lowering visa entry requirements:
The Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) invited the highest ever number of express entry candidates in a single draw…
[It has] invited candidates with a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score as low as 75. The lowest ever CRS score for Express Entry draws since it launched in 2015.
International students will now be eligible to immigrate to Canada if they have completed at least 50% of their studies in person at a university in British Columbia…
You can use documents such as bank statements, utility bills and tenancy agreements to show that you were physically in Canada.
The Canadian Government has released its Immigration Level Plan 2022-2024, which has further increased the planned permanent migrant intake:
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Canada is increasing its immigration targets yet again. It will look to welcome almost 432,000 new immigrants this year instead of its initial plan to welcome 411,000 newcomers…
Over the coming three years, Canada will target the following number of new immigrant landings:
Up until 2015, Canada welcomed about 250,000 immigrants per year…
Canada targets high levels of newcomers to support its economy and fiscal standing. Due to its aging population and low birth rate, Canada needs higher levels of immigration to support its population, labour force, and economic growth, as well as to have enough workers to pay the taxes necessary to support important social services such as health care and education.
Lifting Canada’s immigration intake to counter an ageing population is pure ‘ponzi demography’. It is akin to ‘kicking the ageing can down the road’ since migrants also age.
Seriously, what will be the Canadian Government’s solution be in 30 years’ time when this current batch of migrants retires and adds to the growing ageing population? Will it then lift the annual migrant intake to 800,000 with a Canadian population of 50 million-plus people?
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Concerns about not having enough workers to sustain the economy are ridiculous in light of rising artificial intelligence and automation. In reality, Canada (and other developed nations) are more likely to suffer from a surplus of labour over the long-term.
Canada’s biggest housing markets are also already among the most expensive in the world, which will be made worse by mass immigration.
Funneling hundreds of thousands of migrants into these cities will drive up demand for housing, exacerbating Canada’s housing affordability problem to the detriment of young Canadians. It will also crush-load infrastructure and worsen congestion, reducing livability and placing more strain on Canada’s natural environment.
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Regardless, Canada’s decision to lower entry standards and ramp-up immigration will make it harder for Australia to achieve its own ridiculous target of 235,000 net overseas migration, which is also way above the historical average:
The biggest source of immigration arrives via Australia’s international student trade, which is already losing market share to Canada and the UK, which have extended work rights, and in the case of Canada, relaxed requirements for permanent residency:
Australians recognise that the mass immigration program of 2005 to 2020 was managed appallingly and crush loaded everything in sight, resulting in widespread infrastructure bottlenecks across Australia’s major cities and reduced liveability.
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The Nordic countries of Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway provide a sensible model of growth. These nation’s are considered by many to be among the best run and happiest nations of the world that enjoy high productivity and high living standards. Moreover, they achieved this status without resorting to high immigration-fueled population growth:
Both Australia and Canada should emulate these nations instead of resorting to unsustainable ponzi-led growth.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
