Canada announces massive population ponzi

By Leith van Onselen

Late last week, Canada’s immigration minister, Ahmed Hussen, announced a big increase in Canada’s immigration program, with some one million migrants to be let in over the next three years, with a 300,000 migrant intake now considered the “new normal”. From CNBC:

The number of economic migrants, family reunifications and refugees will climb to 310,000 in 2018, up from 300,000 this year. That number will rise to 330,000 in 2019 then 340,000 in 2020…

Hussen said the new targets will bring Canada’s immigration to nearly one per cent of the population by 2020, which will help offset an aging demographic. He called it a historic and responsible plan and “the most ambitious” in recent history.

“Our government believes that newcomers play a vital role in our society,” Hussen said. “Five million Canadians are set to retire by 2035 and we have fewer people working to support seniors and retirees”…

In 1971 there were 6.6 people of working age for each senior, Hussen said, but by 2012 that ratio had gone to 4.2 to 1 and projections show it will be at 2 to 1 by 2036, when almost 100 per cent of population growth will be a result of immigration; it stands at about 75 per cent today.

Hussen said immigration drives innovation and strengthens the economy, rejecting some claims that newcomers drain Canada’s resources and become a burden on society.
He said the government is also working to reduce backlogs and speed up the processing of applications in order to reunite families and speed up citizenship applications.

The federal government’s own Advisory Council on Economic Growth had recommended upping levels to reach 450,000 newcomers annually by 2021. Hussen said the government is taking a more gradual approach to ensure successful integration…

Dory Jade, the CEO of the Canadian Association of Professional Immigration Consultants, welcomed the news although he suggested the numbers should be higher.
“Canada will greatly prosper and grow once the 350,000 threshold has been crossed,” he said. “Nevertheless, we are witnessing a very positive trend”…

Upping the immigration intake to counter an ageing population is ‘ponzi demography’ writ large. It amounts to nothing more than ‘kicking the can down the road’ since migrants also age. What will be the Canadian Government’s solution be in 30 years time when this new batch of migrants reaches retirement age and adds to the growing ageing population? An annual migrant intake of 600,000 and a Canada with 50+ million people?

Rising artificial intelligence and automation also counters concerns about not having enough workers to sustain the economy. In reality, Canada (and other nations) are likely to have surplus labour in the future.

Canada’s biggest housing markets are already among the most expensive in the world, with Vancouver (11.8 times incomes) ranked third most expensive in this year’s Demographia International housing affordability survey and Toronto (7.7 times incomes) also highly unaffordable:

Piling hundreds of thousands more migrants into these cities will only exacerbate Canada’s housing affordability problem to the detriment of young Canadians, in addition to worsening congestion, putting more strain on Canada’s natural environment, and reducing liveability overall. But then, supporting the bubble is what this is all about.

Thankfully, there are some vocal critics of the Canadian Government’s Ponzi-nomics:

Gilles Paquet, an author and economics professor emeritus at the University of Ottawa, said with more than one in five now born outside the country, immigrants have become a political force so strong that it’s become taboo to talk about possible limits.

“It’s not even a debate anymore. There are too many people voting and if you were to do something that looked like trying to limit the flow of new immigrants, you would antagonize all those who want to bring in their parents, their grandparents … so therefore nobody will do it,” he said.

He believes an immigration intake of 300,000 or more is “mindless,” arguing that Canada does not have the capacity to adequately help them transition with services and supports.

The result, he says, is growing frustration, marginalization and a number of cultural “enclaves” across the country that will lead to increased public tensions and problems down the road.

Herb Grubel, professor emeritus of economics at Simon Fraser University and a former Reform Party MP, rejects the argument that increased immigration is necessary to offset an aging population.

“Whether it’s for pension purposes or maintaining the size of the labour force, these people are aging as well after they have arrived,” he said.

Increased immigration levels are putting too much pressure on the demand for housing, road space and recreational facilities, where demand has outpaced supply in some cities like Vancouver.

Canada’s growth lobby is licking its lips at all the extra consumers and home buyers that will flood into the country. But it will be the ordinary Canadian’s living standards that will be harmed by this folly.

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Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. Canada already has surplus labour. If it did not, the wages would be going up…

    In AUS the wages have been shrinking for the last 5 years and yet drSmithy is peddling his “job guarantee” mirage.

    • Canada does have positive wage growth, and is creating a lot of new jobs (30,000 net new jobs last month). Their economy is in much better shape than Australia’s. Vancouver, for its highly expensive housing, has much better infrastructure than Sydney.

    • Australia has not suffered 5 years of negative wage growth, it has suffered about four of weakening (real) wage growth and about a year of negative wage growth. Still, the prognosis is that an economy built around a population Ponzi designed to boost demand for RE and consumption must lead to weakening wage growth and a general, if slow, and endless slide towards an Argentine society. Great to see Canada, that still has a much more diversified economy with a still relatively strong industrial sector follow our wonderful example. LOL MONKEY SEE, MONKEY DO. UTTER WANKERS.

      • And our monkeys will copy the Canadians.

        The Aus East coaste economy is based on growing immigrants. I expect 500,000 a year in 2019 to keep the house boom going.

  2. the ghosts of big migration always return to re-haunt the joint, even if you think you’ve gotten rid of them.

    the only enduring immigration policy is either no immigration at all, or immigration at negligble levels.

    this is not just a class or economic war, it is a battle for people’s minds. we have to break the “immigration as human right” meme-conditioning, because if it is not broken we will never re-seal pandora’s box.

      • i have not tried this, but it seems useful. i need a new cd player for my car since mine bust and has no bluetooth or usb connection, so i can’t even listen to music anymore when i drive. i have miles davis – kind of blue on CD, as well as john coltrane’s blue train.

  3. Canada doesn’t have to worry.
    People stay there for few years until they get citizenship and than they move south thanks to NAFTA.

  4. Georges Bataillet

    When the economy turns south you can rest assured the locals, like in absolutely every single place on earth throughout all of history, will turn on the foreigners and those who brought / let them in when the economy goes south.

    The case history is ubiquitous and flawless. Like it or not – multiculturalism is great during prosperous times – when things are hard the evolutionary “fear” of the other will rise up and result in violence and rage.

    You can not breed out the evolutionary imperatives ingrained in humans psyche over millions of years through a couple of decades of feel good happy fun times politically correct wozerism.

    As much as I hate bigotry, racism, xenophobia, intolerance for its inane stupidity – it remains a stone cold fact that our evolutionary traits are overhwelmingly powerful and simply will not be deterred.

    The historical case is beyond all question.

    .

  5. “Dory Jade, the CEO of the Canadian Association of Professional Immigration Consultants, welcomed the news although he suggested the numbers should be higher.”

    Why do people seek obviously vested interests out for a quote?

  6. Looks about right:
    Canada defence to GDP 1% 300k immigrants
    UK defence to GDP 1.9% and have had 600k immigrants with 2x Aussi pop’n
    Aus defence to GDP 2% and > 200k immigrants
    US defence to GDP 3.3%

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Good on Canadia for doing what it takes to boost their economy. Australia needs to do the same and at least double our intake as it will help boost profits and everyone will benefit via the dribble onto effect!

    • @Reusa
      Australia already does this. Unlike the crass foreign monister of Canada Mr Ahmed (sorry is this #fakenews or #april1st? Either way #funny) our dignified foreign minister stays silent while thousands navigate our loop holes and thanks their gods for Australia’s political blind eye. Meanwhile we get overpriced pho, sushi (I’m being generous) barista cofffee made by a smiling foreigner #slavetrade

  8. How many low skill immigrants can you assimilate on a yearly basis if at all? Not to mention multi-multiculturalism only works if and only if there is a shared set of values. It will end in tears.

  9. The Chinese will absolutely love this, of course. A couple of years ago when Canada stopped processing their high net worth/entrepreneur visa or whatever it was, so many professional Chinese in Beijing I knew expressed grave concern over this decision, even though they were ineligible to apply for that visa. Why has Canada turned against us? Why don’t they want us anymore? Why is Canada anti-migration/anti-Chinese now? (The Chinese viewed that visa as a visa for them) I have to migrate somewhere else now. They obviously were having trouble understanding that one visa class was affected, not all of them (I’m not sure what message the Chinese media was giving on the topic). But I did get the feeling that Australia became even more popular a destination after that Canadian decision as we were not considered anti-migrant/anti-Chinese unlike the Canadians. So actually you should cheer the Canadians on if you want potential migrants to Australia to seriously consider other English speaking destination countries (that aren’t NZ and a backdoor into here).

  10. It is a perfectly understandable move. Trudeau is just bringing more future supporters into Canada.

    I wonder if he will be a one term PM? It is really hard to understand why Canadians voted for him. Must have been the boredom factor – voters seeking a change and believing more fairy floss policies from politicians.

    I somehow doubt that the opposition will fully reverse this policy it they can win office since the population ponzi would have the support of big bis, just as it does in Oz.

    Canadians need a populist One Nation party to head off the population replacement program that has been implemented there.

  11. Were I to be Canadian I would be so insanely furious words would be difficult to convey my anger.

    These assholes are selling the locals out, just like is being done to us.

  12. kiwikarynMEMBER

    Seriously, why is Trump bothering with a wall? All he needs is to provide the buses to get the Mexicans up to the Canadian border. And Canada has free healthcare, so who wouldnt want to go there. Illegal immigration problem solved.