The hopes of a single vaccine ridding the world of COVID-19 have been dashed with genome sequencing confirming that a Hong Kong resident has been been infected by two different strains. The 33-year-old IT worker had initially contracted the coronavirus during the first wave, and subsequently recovered in April. He then tested positive again in

New research has thrown a cold blanket over claims that Sweden’s lax response to COVID-19 has saved its economy: Sweden’s “light-touch approach” to curtailing the spread of Covid-19 has produced only limited economic benefits, according to research that compared spending patterns in the Scandinavian country and in Denmark, where far more restrictive policies were adopted.

The OECD has released a report which concludes that the overall impact of working from home (WFH) on productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic remains “ambiguous”. However, the IMF warns that long-term productivity growth and workers’ efficiency may be negatively affected if companies continue to rely too much on telecommuting when the health crisis abates. The

Via Capital Economics: Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in Q2 GDP to be less steep than we initially envisaged. However, renewed

From Fitch Ratings: There were more sovereign downgrades in 1H20 than any full year prior, and 40 sovereigns are on Negative Outlook, a record high in absolute terms and as a share of the rated portfolio, Fitch Ratings says. The coronavirus pandemic is exerting considerable pressure on sovereign creditworthiness across all regions and rating categories,

Global cases of COVID-19 has surged past 11 million, which is more than double the annual number of severe flu illnesses, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO): Daily cases are also running at record highs: As are active cases: And total serious and critical cases: Meanwhile, COVID-19 has mutated into a new strain that

Via FTAlphaville: It’s confession time for IHS Markit, the firm behind the purchasing managers’ indices. The firm asks thousands of purchasing managers whether activity over the current month has declined, improved, or stayed about the same compared with the previous month. IHS Markit then tallies responses up to produce a net figure where 50 signals no

The IMF has turned super-bearish: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the

Via FTAlphaville: Here’s some reaction to this morning’s European flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs). From Capital Economics: The rise in the eurozone flash Composite PMI in June confirms that economic output in the region is recovering rapidly from April’s nadir as restrictions are progressively eased. And ING-DiBa: Today’s PMI numbers provide further evidence of what

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit suisse: No reliable official Indian data for April or May. The Indian Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MSPI) has halted the official releases of industrial production (IP) and consumer price index (CPI) estimates, providing instead “quick” estimates of IP, and partial food CPI data. Specifically on the IP data, The MSPI has

Via Rabobank Coronavirus causes deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression Summary COVID-19 is expected to result in contraction of the global economy by 4.1% in 2020 This means that the corona crisis will be the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s We expect a relatively limited recovery in 2021, as