DXY climbed last night: AUD was clubbed: Gold fell: Oil too: Base metals flamed out: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks fell: Junk too: Treasuries were killed but the curve steepened for once: Bunds the same: Stocks pulled back: US data was decent with a good Pilly Fed and solid Fed Beige Book. The US
DXY was firm last night: AUD was firm too: But not as strong as EM: Gold tried and failed to go higher: Oil succeeded: Base metals were strong: Big miners went nuts: EM stocks were firm: Junk didn’t buy it: US yields rose: Not bunds: Stocks firmed: So, as China cut its reserve ratio requirement
All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor
DXY was down last night: AUD was stablish: Gold firmed: Oil fell: And remains vulnerable with a huge speculative long: Base metals lifted: Big miners fell: EM stocks struggled: The EM junk tide is definitely going out. A slowing China signal? Short end Treasury yields marched higher, the curve flattened again: Not so bunds: Stocks
By Leith van Onselen Following intense lobbying from US farmers and the Republican Party, it was revealed on Friday that US President Donald Trump has ordered his senior economic and trade advisers to examine the possibility of the US re-entering the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership, dubbed by MB as “TPP 2.0”. However, international trade
Ahead of the May budget Gunnamatta spoke with Leith van Onselen and David Llewellyn-Smith about the economic outlook and the unfolding Australian economic narrative. In a wide ranging discussion Leith and David cover Australia’s reliance on commodity exports and the implication a subsiding global commodity market has for this dependence, as well as the potential
DXY rose last night: AUD was mixed against EM: And EM: Gold got flogged: And base metals: Big miners fell: EM stocks firmed a touch: But junk is sending an interesting signal as US warms up but EM turns cold: The Treasury curve flattened again: Bunds went the other way: Stocks rose firmly: The key
Sell DXY: Buy AUD: And how! Buy gold: Buy oil, helped along by Syrian tensions: Buy dirt: Buy dirt again: Buy EM stocks: Buy US junk but not EM: Sell Treasuries: And bunds: Buy stocks! Thanks Xi Jinping and your put under free trade! Except for one small problem, via the FT: US President Donald
By Leith van Onselen After spending a decade worrying about the rise of Japan, economists (and population boosters) in Australia have frequently labelled Japan an ‘economic basket case’ due to its ageing (and falling)population and its slow growth in headline GDP. I have frequently challenged this argument, citing Japan’s enviously low unemployment rate, which is
DXY was sold last night: AUD was roughly stable against DM: But strong against EM: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners weak: EM stocks too: Junk was better: The Treasury curve flattened: And bunds: Stocks soared then flamed out: Everyone is a bear or bear in waiting now. Last night’s bid
By Leith van Onselen The UK’s House of Commons library has produced projections claiming that the world’s richest 1% are on course to control as much as two-thirds of the world’s wealth by 2030. From The Guardian: Since 2008, the wealth of the richest 1% has been growing at an average of 6% a year
It’s over. China has won. So says the Global Times: China on Wednesday unveiled a list of imported products from the United States worth $50 billion that will be subjected to higher tariffs, including soybeans, automobiles, aircrafts and chemical products. The decision, made by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council, could also involve
The USD is pushing towards breakout: AUD fell: But not as fast as EMs: Gold was hit: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Big miners surged in London but only firmed in NY: EM stocks rose: US junk lifted but EM fell: Treasuries were flogged: Bunds too: European stocks soared and US rose again: As the
Nobody out-bears AEP. Nobody: Donald Trump’s declaration of tariff warfare against China has little to do with trade. It is about raw power, a struggle over which of the two sparring hegemons will dominate technology and run the world in the 21st century. The pretence of cordial coexistence has all but ended in the Hobbesian
Damien Boey at Credit Suisse has taken his bear pill today: Investor concerns about trade tensions are soothed by Kudlow Overnight, investors were initially very concerned about trade retaliation measures announced by Chinese officials. However, sentiment turned sharply higher after US President Trump’s new chief economic advisor Kudlow told investors to relax. US equities reversed
Via BT’s excellent Vimal Gor today: There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a
DXY was firm last night: AUD ripped: Gold fell: Oil rose: Base metals broke: Big miners too: EM stocks were off their worst: Junk too: Treasuries were dumped: Bunds bought: And recovered strongly from an early sell down: Last night did not start well as China listed its new trade war riposte, via the FT:
By Leith van Onselen MB has long derided Australia’s ‘free trade agreements’ (FTAs) for their complexity and deleterious efficiency impacts, their anti-competitive measures around intellectual property, as well as some FTAs containing clauses enabling trading partners to sue sovereign governments (called Investor-State Dispute Settlement or ISDS). On Friday, the University of Chicago’s Pro-Market Blog published
DXY rose last night: AUD did too: Gold fell: Oil firmed: Base metals too: Not big miners: Or EM stocks: Junk did better: Treasury yields rose: And bunds: Stocks rebounded: The key was this, via Bloomie: Judging from his tweets, President Donald Trump appears to have the knives out for Amazon.com Inc. But inside the
DXY was stable last night: AUD was weak: But EMs weaker still: Gold was strong: Oil weak: Base metals stable: Big miners fell (chart is wrong): EM stocks did OK: Junk is at support: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: The Nasdaq was caned: And the S&P500 closed below both its 200DMA and February low though
DXY took off last night: AUD sank: But did better against EMs: Gold was bashed: Oil fell: Base metals held on: Big miners let go: EM stocks too: Junk was OK: The Treasury curve collapsed: And bund curve: Stocks eased a touch: Not much in news to report. Macquarie’s Viktor Schvets is back with more
From Zoltan Poszar at Credit Suisse: Since the global adoption of Basel III in 2015, dollar funding markets were rattled by two events: money fund reform in 2016 and tax reform in 2018. Banks have weathered the storm of 2016 and will weather the storm of 2018, thanks to their robust liquidity buffers. While Libor-OIS
By Leith van Onselen Last week, job search website Adzuna estimated that around one-third Australian jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, with lower-skilled and manual labour jobs most at risk. Yesterday, Zero Hedge reported on a fascinating keynote address by the Managing Director of Bain & Company’s Macro Trends Group, Karen Harris, entitled: “Labor
The titans are out and they do not like what they see. First up, Ray Dalio: Politics is playing a bigger role in influencing the markets than is typical, and I (and others) am still trying to figure out where Donald Trump is taking us, especially as it regards trade and other wars. Besides prompting
DXY was pounded lower last night: AUD lifted but is at 2015 lows against EUR: It was mixed versus EMs: Gold firmed: Oil fell: Base metals were mixed: Big miners too: EM stocks took off: Junk rebounded: Treasuries were sold: Bunds too: US stocks roared off support. The EUR squashed European shares: The FT has
Via the WSJ: China and the U.S. have quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after a week filled with harsh words from both sides over Washington’s threat to use tariffs to address trade imbalances, people with knowledge of the matter said. The talks, which cover wide areas including financial services and
DXY was soft Friday night: AUD fell against everything: Gold was strong: Oil too: Base metals were hit: Big miners are toast: EM stocks sold: Worse, junk broke: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: And stocks were flogged again: The problem is not as specific as trade wars, though that is a part of it. It is that
Apparently it’s trade war at the AFR: China deplored the move and said it was not afraid of a “trade war”. China said it would impose a 15 per cent tariff on 120 US products including fresh fruit, dried fruit, nuts, wine, ginseng, and steel pipes worth just under $US1 billion in annual trade. It
DXY firmed last night: AUD was flogged across the board: Gold warmed: Brent fell: Base metals too: Big miners are in trouble: EM stocks were smashed: Junk too: Treasuries were bought: And bunds: Stocks were pounded: The headline risk for the night was The Donald, via FT: The Trump administration plans to impose 25 per
DXY was weak last night: AUD was too against DMs: Better against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals were hit: And miners clubbed. The post-2015 bounce is done: EM stocks were hit: Junk too: But Treasuries still sold: Not bunds: Stocks took it for the team: There’s no broad risk off here. It’s more
