Global Macro


Deloitte: More virus equals less GDP

Via Deloitte: The release of national accounts data this morning confirms the Australian economy has just experienced its sharpest ever three-month contraction – driving it to its weakest growth since the end of World War 2. Australian GDP growth over the same quarter of the previous year Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.  Note quarterly numbers


It’s official: COVID-19 can reinfect

The hopes of a single vaccine ridding the world of COVID-19 have been dashed with genome sequencing confirming that a Hong Kong resident has been been infected by two different strains. The 33-year-old IT worker had initially contracted the coronavirus during the first wave, and subsequently recovered in April. He then tested positive again in


Medicos pick through Morrison vaccine wreckage

Via Domain comes the self-evident: Doctors are urging governments not to compel Australians to get a COVID-19 vaccine, warning the fast-tracked approval process could create a risk of harmful side effects. Australian Medical Association President Omar Khorshid said while the peak body was “very supportive of vaccination generally because of its extensive science behind the


Sweden’s COVID-19 response hasn’t saved economy

New research has thrown a cold blanket over claims that Sweden’s lax response to COVID-19 has saved its economy: Sweden’s “light-touch approach” to curtailing the spread of Covid-19 has produced only limited economic benefits, according to research that compared spending patterns in the Scandinavian country and in Denmark, where far more restrictive policies were adopted.


The structural changes of COVID-19

Nice work here from Seth Klarman of Baupost: Peering into the Future: The Possible Longer-Term Ramifications of the COVID-19 Pandemic For most of the last century, a reasonable approach to assessing a company’s future prospects was to expect mean reversion. Fluctuations in business performance were largely cyclical phenomena. The stock market, as always, could be


MB Radio: A podcast of gloomy disposition

  With the sheer enormity of the COVID19 pandemic’s economic impact only starting to dawn, David Llewellyn Smith and Leith Van Onselen spoke with Gunnamatta on the major forms the shock has taken through the Australian economy.  Over the course of about 75 minutes (3 parts) they cover the ugly numbers and the dynamics across


Is working from home too much of a good thing?

The OECD has released a report which concludes that the overall impact of working from home (WFH) on productivity during the COVID-19 pandemic remains “ambiguous”. However, the IMF warns that long-term productivity growth and workers’ efficiency may be negatively affected if companies continue to rely too much on telecommuting when the health crisis abates. The


World heads into w-shaped depression

Via Capital Economics: Hard data for May generally revealed sharp improvements in activity, particularly retail spending, albeit not to pre-virus levels. This led us to revise our forecasts for several economies including the US, UK and euro-zone, where we now expect falls in Q2 GDP to be less steep than we initially envisaged. However, renewed


Fitch: 2020 a record for sovereign downgrades

From Fitch Ratings: There were more sovereign downgrades in 1H20 than any full year prior, and 40 sovereigns are on Negative Outlook, a record high in absolute terms and as a share of the rated portfolio, Fitch Ratings says. The coronavirus pandemic is exerting considerable pressure on sovereign creditworthiness across all regions and rating categories,


COVID-19 mutates into more infectious strain

Global cases of COVID-19 has surged past 11 million, which is more than double the annual number of severe flu illnesses, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO): Daily cases are also running at record highs: As are active cases: And total serious and critical cases: Meanwhile, COVID-19 has mutated into a new strain that


PMI producer admits PMIs are useless

Via FTAlphaville: It’s confession time for IHS Markit, the firm behind the purchasing managers’ indices. The firm asks thousands of purchasing managers whether activity over the current month has declined, improved, or stayed about the same compared with the previous month. IHS Markit then tallies responses up to produce a net figure where 50 signals no


IMF bears up big but not enough

The IMF has turned super-bearish: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the


More PMI drivel

Via FTAlphaville: Here’s some reaction to this morning’s European flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs). From Capital Economics: The rise in the eurozone flash Composite PMI in June confirms that economic output in the region is recovering rapidly from April’s nadir as restrictions are progressively eased. And ING-DiBa: Today’s PMI numbers provide further evidence of what


Why China loves Trump

Via Bloomie: Donald Trump has argued frequently of late that China is rooting for Joe Biden come November’s U.S. presidential election. In Beijing, however, officials have come around to support four more years of Trump. Interviews with nine current and former Chinese officials point to a shift in sentiment in favor of the sitting president,


India disappears into virus

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit suisse: No reliable official Indian data for April or May. The Indian Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MSPI) has halted the official releases of industrial production (IP) and consumer price index (CPI) estimates, providing instead “quick” estimates of IP, and partial food CPI data. Specifically on the IP data, The MSPI has


OECD is not happy

Via the OECD: The lockdown measures brought in by most governments have succeeded in slowing the spread of the virus and in reducing the death toll but they have also frozen business activity in many sectors, widened inequality, disrupted education and undermined confidence in the future. As restrictions begin to be eased, the path to


Assessing the global recovery

Via Rabobank Coronavirus causes deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression Summary COVID-19 is expected to result in contraction of the global economy by 4.1% in 2020 This means that the corona crisis will be the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s We expect a relatively limited recovery in 2021, as