At times I have agreed with Horseman Global (known by the some as the world’s most bearish hedge fund) but not today: One of the most dangerous things to happen in financial markets is to be right for the wrong reasons. If you fail to recognize that you were lucky, then you will continue to
It’s pretty obvious that there can only be one winner. Surplus nations do not benefit from trade wars. They are the reason for them in the first place. China will lose. But the important question for investors is how will it lose? President Trump has done a very nice job of wedging Xi Jinping now
Satyajit Das at Domainfax: Several factors could lead to a dangerous shortage of liquidity in the event of a crisis. First, since 2009, low interest rates have driven investors into riskier, less liquid assets in search of return. These include longer-dated securities, corporate bonds and emerging-market issues — frequently of low credit quality — as
Some from Bloomberg: “Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission,” Gundlach said in a webcast discussing his DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. “We are increasing the the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” …”It’s pretty much unprecedented that we’re seeing this level debt expansion so late in
Via Vimal Gor at Pendal (formerly BT): Well that was certainly fun. Over recent months we have been making the strong case that as a result of the normalisation of global monetary policy, global liquidity will recede and market volatility will rise. Well it certainly did in May as Italian yields puked and the global
By Leith van Onselen While the Turnbull Government and the Business Council of Australia (BCA) continue to insist that reducing the company tax rate is essential to fuel investment, jobs and wages growth, evidence of the impact from the recent US corporate tax cuts to 21% from 35% continues to disappoint, fuelling little more than
By Leith van Onselen Australia has again taken the silver medal for having the world’s second most indebted households according to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The next table shows the ratios of household debt to GDP as at the December quarter of 2017. As you can see, Switzerland (128%)
Australia Australia – temporary visas Declines in 457 visa numbers Australian National Minimum Wage Increases Australia – Average and Median Incomes Australia – Capex Australia – Capex by State Australia – changes in dwelling values Australia – share of dwellings by price growth Australia – Sydney
It’s obvious that Australia’s mass immigration program is a giant scam perpetrated by the politico-housing complex. But it is an interesting thought experiment to treat is as considered macro policy versus the alternatives. So let’s do it. In 2011 Australia joined the secular stagnation that now rules unchallenged across developed economies worldwide. This malady is
DXY soared to new highs last night EUR was hammered: The EUR/USD chart is a giant declining channel that has abundant room to go lower: AUD was hit: EMs harder still: Gold fell: Base metals too: London and US markets were closed so big miners are unchanged: EM stocks held on but that charts says
EUR sank Friday night and DXY hit new highs: Hilariously, the market remains spectacularly long EUR meaning much more selling pressure ahead: AUD was soft against the tearaway USD: But not as soft as EMs: AUD CFTC shorts pulled back a touch to -23k: Gold held on and may have found a friend in Italexit:
EUR rallied last night and DXY fell: AUD ran around on the spot: But EMs fell: Gold bounced on renewed Korean tensions: Oil fell: And base metals: Plus big miners: EM stocks are still in trouble: Junk too: Treasuries were gobbled up: And bunds (Italian yields were flat): Stocks were soft: Why anyone would want
I’m sometimes skeptical of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. His bearishness is so relentless and florid that it’s hard to keep up. But every so often he scribbles such a ripping piece that it is impossible to ignore. To wit, from The Telegraph comes Italexit: The EU’s gendarmes are now eyeing Italy’s rebel coalition with professional curiosity. This
The DXY/EUR two-step reversed last night: But AUD fell anyway: Even as EM’s poured it on: Gold is still holding: Oil fell a little: Base metals mostly lifted: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks got a little bid: With junk: Treasuries were sold: Bunds too as Italian yields fell: Stocks were mixed: US data was
By Leith van Onselen The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new “cutting-edge dataset” measuring private and public debt across the global economy since the 1950s. Below are the key findings from this report: The first observation is that, almost a decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global debt, at $164 trillion—or about
Via the FT: The US has stepped back from the brink of a trade war with China after Washington halted plans to impose tariffs on up to $150bn of imports, according to the US Treasury secretary. “We’re putting the trade war on hold,” Steven Mnuchin said in a television interview on Sunday. The declaration from
DXY roared again Friday night as EUR fell decisively below 1.18: EUR positioning remains hilariously long setting us up for a higher DXY yet: AUD hung on against DMs: As the market moved to moderately short last week. CFTC net positions are -23.1k contracts versus -16.8k last week: A stable AUD launched against crashing EMs:
By Leith van Onselen Back in the early-1930s, renowned economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted that technical innovations and rising productivity would mean that advanced country workers would be able to work only 15 hours a week and still enjoy rising living standards. Back in 2013, David Graeber achieved international notoriety when he penned a highly amusing,
AUSTRALIA Australian Federal Government Balances since Federation – note the 50s & 60s, our government is looking to debt load and dissipate with population ponzi again. Australian government debt to GDP – we have driven it higher to bloat property prices and trash our education sector, while exporting the non-mining or agriculture external facing sectors
DXY was up again last night but well off the highs. It’s mirror image EUR was the reverse: AUD finally caught a little bid against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold held on again: Oil is unhinged: Base metals were stable: Big miners surged despite the falling dirt/rising oil paradigm crushing their margins: EM
Big news this: On 10th June 2018 Switzerland will be the first country in the world to have a national referendum on the introduction of Sovereign Money. A referendum result that is as positive as possible in Switzerland will help monetary reformers worldwide to make significant progress. However, our opponents are powerful and will try to
DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked. I reckon there’s another 5% in this move for both as the mad EUR long unwinds: AUD held on against DMs: EMs are breaking: Gold is at the brink: Oil looks toppy: Base metals are fighting a losing battle: Big miners too: EM stocks are breaking: EM
Last night DXY launched: As EUR cratered: As we bid adieu to an all too brief European boomlet: AUD was monkey-hammered to a two year low as 75 cents broke: It was mixed against EMs: Gold was hit but is hanging on! Oil gave in: Base metals can’t take the runaway USD: Neither can big
DXY took off last night: AUD sank to fresh lows across the board: Though EMs were even weaker: Gold held on: Oil was firm: Base metals are struggling: Big miners too: EM stocks fell: Junk too: The Treasury curve pancaked: Bunds too: US stocks fell, Europe lifted as EUR tumbles: Lot’s of news, most of
DXY is on on fire: As EUR plunges: AUD is getting clubbed: Gold held on manfully: Oil too, held aloft by Iran: Oil is holding together the entire commodities complex: And Big Miners: Even EM stocks: But EM junk debt is telling the tale. Sell! As US yields rise, though the curve flattened: Bunds were
DXY climbed last night: AUD was clubbed: Gold fell: Oil too: Base metals flamed out: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks fell: Junk too: Treasuries were killed but the curve steepened for once: Bunds the same: Stocks pulled back: US data was decent with a good Pilly Fed and solid Fed Beige Book. The US
DXY was firm last night: AUD was firm too: But not as strong as EM: Gold tried and failed to go higher: Oil succeeded: Base metals were strong: Big miners went nuts: EM stocks were firm: Junk didn’t buy it: US yields rose: Not bunds: Stocks firmed: So, as China cut its reserve ratio requirement
All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor
DXY was down last night: AUD was stablish: Gold firmed: Oil fell: And remains vulnerable with a huge speculative long: Base metals lifted: Big miners fell: EM stocks struggled: The EM junk tide is definitely going out. A slowing China signal? Short end Treasury yields marched higher, the curve flattened again: Not so bunds: Stocks
By Leith van Onselen Following intense lobbying from US farmers and the Republican Party, it was revealed on Friday that US President Donald Trump has ordered his senior economic and trade advisers to examine the possibility of the US re-entering the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership, dubbed by MB as “TPP 2.0”. However, international trade
