Global Macro

17

COVID crisis over? Vaccines working on virus variants

Key points from the UK’s COVID Symptom Study: No vaccines contain COVID-19. Pfizer better than AZ in infection risk reduction after one shot but both good: 90% reduction in hospitalisations. “Definite immunity” still a work in progress. Variants are “clobbered” by the second dose of vaccines. South African version definitely and probably Brazilian. Single-dose still

10

The virus will disrupt markets again

Mizuho with the warning: We have made it a habit, early every Monday morning, to review the global status of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on figures listed on the Johns HopkinsUniversity web site. We want to know whether rise in new infections is accelerating or slowing down. We are particularly interested in whether any specific

23

Brazilian variant spooks medicos

Natural selection is a beast. The moment we get individual or herd immunity and natural selection goes to work on finding a way around it. The FT is reporting on a new COVID variant from Brazil that is spooking medicos: First detected in November it has now spread to 35 countries. 25-61% of previously infected

21

Is the post-COVID boom going to bust?

BofA: In a normal business cycle recovery, the economy gradually returns to full employment, causing a lagged return of inflation pressure. This gives monetary and fiscal authorities’ time to recalibrate policy before there is serious overheating. This cycle looks far from normal: Super easy monetary and fiscal policy suggests the fastest business cycle recovery since

33

Israel proves that vaccination works

Israel has become somewhat of a global experiment on the global COVID vaccination front. It has rolled out vaccines at the fastest pace in the world, with around half of Israel’s population having received the first dose of Pfizer’s two-shot regime and around one-third having received both shots. The initial results are promising with two

16

Canada trashes entry standards to pump immigration ponzi

In late 2017, the Canadian Government launched a massive increase in the country’s immigration program, announcing that one million migrants would be let in over the following three years, with an annual migrant intake of 340,000 considered the “new normal”. Canada’s immigration minister, Ahmed Hussen, claimed the new targets would lift immigration to nearly 1%

8

Global fundies spooked by inflation

ZH has a great summary of the BofA fundie monthly: Below we present some of the highlights from the latest FMS, which finds that a record number of investors are taking “higher-than-normal” risk, up to 25% in February the highest on record… … for the following reasons: Net 91% of investors now see a stronger economy

26

Has COVID-19 killed recessions?

Has COVID-19 killed recessions? It’s a fascinating question. Let’s hope not because they are vital to advancing living standards as they sweep out the capital misallocation of the cycle and help drive productivity growth. Deutsche Bank muses: So aggressive has been the policy response that the US Covid recession is likely to be the shortest

27

Six years to vaccinate world from COVID

Dr Mary-Louise McLaws from the University of New South Wales estimates that at least 90% to 95% of Australians would need to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in order to combat new strains of the coronavirus. She adds that achieving herd immunity would require up to 190,000 Australians to be vaccinated every day. Meanwhile, infectious diseases

4

Goldman: Planet Earth entering super-boom

Goldman is turning uber-bullish on Planet Earth: After the slower-than-expected start in December and early January, global vaccinations have picked up roughly in line with our forecasts over the past month. However, there is still a lot of room for improvement. In the US, the problem has been largely distribution; by our estimates, only about

6

Here comes the inflation panic

At FTAlphaville We’d like to draw your attention to two articles that have recently graced FT.com. Here’s the first, from the FT’s German industry correspondent Joe Miller, which appeared online earlier today: German carmakers are considering building up semiconductor stockpiles to prevent a repeat of the crippling chip shortages that brought assembly lines to a

3

Europe couldn’t vaccinate its way out of a wet paper bag

Via GaveKal: It is looking likely that most countries will miss their Covid-19 vaccination targets for 2021. This creates a risk of slower than expected economic growth, especially in Europe where renewed lockdowns have forced the region into a double-dip recession, from which it may start to emerge only around midyear. Moreover, any activity dependent

2

Global lockdowns intensify economic damage

Via Goldman: Our global GS Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) – a combination of official restrictions and actual mobility data from 46 economies, weighted by PPP GDP – tightened in the third week of January. Using our estimated relationship between the GS ELI and real activity, we see an ELI-implied hit of nearly 10% ELI-implied hit

43

How worrying is the new British COVID strain?

Reuters has posted a good explainer on the new COVID strain sweeping through Britain, which has prompted some neighbouring European nations to shut trade links to prevent transmission. The Cliff Notes summary is that this strain is far more infectious than other strains, but not more lethal. Vaccines are also thought to protect against this

27

How long will it take for vaccines to kill the virus?

Via Goldman: This note expands our monthly forecasting vaccination model by including the major emerging markets and the ten leading global vaccine candidates. Global vaccine supply is likely to become plentiful. Achieving the top-10developer production targets would deliver enough doses to vaccinate 85% of the world’s population in 2021. Although DMs currently hold the largest