Global Macro

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Chartfest 23-24 February 2019

  AUSTRALIA   5 Eyes Part Time Employment   Australia CPI Housing Wealth and Consumption Residential Rents NSW & Vic, wages & unemployment   Australian coal export destinations   Australian Commodity Exports   Australian House Prices   Australian Housing Finance   Australian Renewable Energy   Australian Services & Manufacturing   Australian Short Term Arrivals  

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Why the Australian slowdown is much worse than the global one

There is one big difference between the global and local slowdowns right now. It is that while much of the world is entering an industrial recession with services economies holding up, Australia is the complete opposite. The US is seeing an industrial slowdown with services booming: Same in Europe exemplified by Germany: Same in China

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IMF drops growth forecasts again

by Chris Becker As the world’s elite – besides Donald Trump who is holed up in his McMansion – descend upon Davos for the World Economic Forum, the IMF is out with an update to its growth forecasts. The timing could have been a bit better given the release of the Chinese 4Q GDP print

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Credit Suisse: Is momentum investing valid?

Via Damien Boey of Credit Suisse: Momentum investing is based on the idea that tomorrow’s winners and losers will resemble yesterday’s winners and losers on average, whether on 12-month total return, or 3-month earnings revision bases. We find that macro factors can predict when momentum factors are likely to work well, although there are also

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Vancouver pushes Canadian house prices lower

By Leith van Onselen The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index for December has been released, which reported a third consecutive monthly decline in home values: The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM for December was down 0.3% from the previous month. It was the third consecutive monthly retreat. The component indexes were down for seven

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Japan shows the world how to age gracefully

By Leith van Onselen After spending a decade worrying about the rise of Japan, economists (and population boosters) in Australia have frequently labelled Japan an ‘economic basket case’ due to its ageing (and falling) population and its slow growth in headline GDP. I have frequently challenged this argument, citing Japan’s enviously low unemployment rate, which

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Trump to rejoin TPP?

By Leith van Onselen After vigorously opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in the lead-up to the 2016 Presidential Election, the Trump Administration appears to be having second thoughts. From The AFR: Donald Trump has backed a fresh drive by the United States to re-engage with Australia and Asia on trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific

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Why is the market obsessed with quantitative tightening?

Via Damien Boey as Credit Suisse: In recent articles, we have talked about the tail risks from central bank balance sheet reduction globally. Overnight, we have seen central bankers wax and wane in their positions:   After suggesting recently that balance sheet reduction need not be on “auto-pilot”, Fed Chair Powell has come back saying that

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World Bank cuts growth forecasts

by Chris Becker Following on from the dreadful German industrial production print overnight, there’s more signs that the global growth machine is sputtering. The World Bank is out with it’s latest growth forecasts, and have slashed away, with advanced economies to drop to 2%: Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019.

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Blame Brexit on the Euro

by Chris Becker At the end of March this year, or in less than 90 days, the UK is set to leave the European Union. The EU and UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May have struck a deal, but it needs to be voted on in Parliament before such a deal is ratified. The exit from

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Moody’s: bonds need to rally for stocks to stabilize

From Moodys: The world is now incapable of shouldering a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%. A remedial decline by the U.S.’ benchmark interest rates will be critical to rejuvenating global business activity and stabilizing financial markets. Otherwise, the corporate earnings outlook might deteriorate by enough to sink the market value of U.S. common stock by

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Global debt reaches new record highs: IMF

by Chris Becker Just in time for the New Year crash, here comes some stellar news from the IMF (my emphasis added): Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017. On average, the world’s debt now exceeds $86,000 in per capita terms,

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It’s all about Apple as it blames China

by Chris Becker Looks like we’re reliving the GFC all over again with interconnectedness so high that global currency and stock markets are going to crash because some single Chinese youths are not buying as many iPhones as they should. Apple announced a near 10% reduction in its forward guidance, releasing this report: While we

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Australian dollar crashing

by Chris Becker Some epic volatility in the FX market at the moment with Yen moving both Aussie and USD around: This is very troubling indeed, with the lack of liquidity as key levels are taken out really showing how volatile and dangerous the FX world really is – and why most traders don’t hold

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The future does not belong to emerging markets

Via Capital Economics: The conventional view of the long-term prospects for the global economy can be summarised as: EMs good, DMs bad. Like most things, however, we suspect that the conventional view is likely to be wrong. Last week we published our first Long Term Global Economic Outlook, which sets out forecasts for the major

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How “late cycle” is the global economy?

Via FTAlphaville: With roughly six months to go until the US expansion becomes the longest on record, there has been growing concern that the global economy more broadly is running on late-cycle fumes. Lofty valuations, soaring profit margins, a flattening yield curve and a Federal Reserve tightening in the face of (admittedly muted) inflationary pressures

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The economic impact of falling oil

Via Capital Economics: The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were a

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Secretive China-led mega-trade deal stalls

By Leith van Onselen At the beginning of the year, the Turnbull Government revealed that Australia would head into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was expected to be concluded by year’s end. The RCEP is backed by China and also includes the ASEAN countries along

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Is the stock market panic over?

Some nice charts from Damien Bey as Credit Suisse give us context: Credit Suisse’s proprietary measure of risk appetite very briefly entered panic in mid-August 2018. It has since staged a modest recovery to less negative levels. 2. Past cycles show that after risk appetite enters panic, small caps tend to outperform in the following

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What will cause the next global recession?

Via Capital Economics today: Our view that the world economy will undergo a reasonably sharp slowdown over the next couple of years stands in contrast to the relatively rosy consensus. (See Chart 1.) And it has led several clients to ask the obvious question: what causes the downturn in our forecast that others may be

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Global stocks smoked

DXY took off last night. EUR was down and looks precarious. CNY firmed: AUD was hit against the USD but held up against the tumbling EUR: EMs were mixed: Gold held on aided by worries over EUR: Oil fell: Base metals were OK: Big miners tumbled anyway: EM stocks were smoked: Junk was dragged in

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Trump wants China to “feel more pain”

Via Axios which has good sources on this stuff: President Trump has no intention of easing his tariffs on China, according to three sources with knowledge of his private conversations. Instead, these sources say he wants the Chinese leaders to feel more pain from his tariffs — which he believes need more time to fully