BofA Global Research with the note: The impact of Covid on the economy has evolved over time. Here we argue Omicron adds a new chapter to the Covidonomics textbook: Successive waves of Covid are increasingly impacting the supply-side of the economy more than the demand-side. The biggest impact from Omicron will likely be a large

Deutsche Bank with the note: As we close out 2021, it is fair to say that this year has been one of the lowest vol years for credit on record. A perfect calm of the strongest growth for decades, coupled with still extreme level of stimulus has resulted in very low spread ranges. We think

Goldman Sachs’ Global Economics Analyst has released its top 12 charts of 2021. Below is the overview: The global economy recovered rapidly in 2021 as demand surged. Mass vaccinations and adaptation made growth less sensitive to infections although risk aversion to the virus remained high in Asia-Pacific for much of the year. Fiscal policy turned from

Only three months ago, Singapore was experiencing a massive surge in COVID cases that dwarfed anything Australia has experienced: This September outbreak produced a peak COVID death rate of only 2.5 people per million residents: Now with Omicron cases taking off, Singapore has sealed its border shut to Australia and 19 other nations included in

Anyone still clinging to the myth that the unvaccinated are responsible for spreading COVID, or that vaccination stops transmission, only needs to look at the 100% vaccinated British Overseas Territory of Gibraltar. Gibraltar’s vaccination rate is truly world-leading: Yet it is experiencing more cases per million than either the UK or USA: Accordingly, Gibraltar’s government

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs’ global economist, looks inflationary drivers in a global context, and concludes that while inflation is set to subside across most G10 economies in 2H22, it will likely remain structurally higher—to the tune of an average 0.5pp above the pre-pandemic level—in the years ahead: The inflation debate this year has centered on

As the markets start to slow down for the year, its easy to get the ruler and calculator out and work out where wealth has increased across the world, in a year marked by a second wave of COVID and inflationary fears. One thing that hasn’t changed is inequality. The richer get richer – helped

Data and studies are emerging suggesting that the omicron coronavirus strain is far less dangerous than prior strains and results in far lower levels of hospitalisation. From The Australian: New data from Scotland and South Africa suggest people infected with the Omicron variant of coronavirus are at markedly lower risk of hospitalization than those who

Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards with the note: As we end the year, markets are becoming increasingly nervous that US equities – and the US tech sector specifically – are having the rug pulled out from under them. Market internals are also giving out loud warnings. Just as in 2001, could the unravelling of the recent

Mark The Graph has posted several charts on Twitter showing how the Omicron strain of COVID is yet to fill up the world’s hospitals. Below are key international charts: Below is the all important chart for NSW: And below is a chart for South Africa, which is where Omicron originated from: While it is still

Israel has become the first nation to roll out a fourth COVID jab: Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett says people over age 60 and medical teams will be eligible for a fourth COVID-19 vaccination, following the recommendation of an expert panel, news agency AFP reports. “I gave an order to prepare immediately for a fourth

A new global study of workers in 25 countries by the OECD suggests that work from home (WFH) arrangements will be a permanent fixture post-pandemic: Both employees and managers found working from home during the pandemic was positive for performance and well-being, a report by the OECD found. The proportion of staff teleworking at least

Goldman Sachs with the note: With used car auction prices on the rise again, we revisit the outlook for motor vehicle inflation across three dimensions: 1) the relative prices of new versus used cars, 2) Omicron-driven factory closures in East Asia, and 3) US port congestion. Despite recent appreciation, prices of new cars remain unsustainably

From the IMF Blog: In 2020, we observed the largest one-year debt surge since World War II, with global debt rising to $226 trillion as the world was hit by a global health crisis and a deep recession. Debt was already elevated going into the crisis, but now governments must navigate a world of record-high

Mizuho Securities with the note: The OECD published its composite leading indicators (CLIs) for November on 9 December. They point to slower growth in the world’s advanced and major emerging-market economies over the coming 6–9 months. The OECD sees a “possible peak” in the US, the euro area, and Japan, suggesting that growth may slow.

Preliminary research seems to suggest that most COVID vaccines offer almost no defense against infection from the highly contagious Omicron variant. In particular, vaccines from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and those manufactured in China and Russia do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built

The Netherlands over the weekend announced that it will commence a four-week hard lockdown amid a recent surge in COVID cases: From the BBC: Non-essential shops, bars, gyms hairdressers and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January. Two guests per household will be allowed – four over the holidays. Prime Minister Mark

HSBC Global Research with the note: While most of Europe is still fighting against the Delta wave… …an even larger threat already looms at the doorstep as the Omicron variant has already started to spread… …which increases the uncertainty around the near-term economic and policy outlook Out of the frying pan and into the fire?