Global Macro


Unemployment and the bullshit work-ethic

By Gavin R Putland Some else wants to do your job. So why does it matter if you do it? In a logical world, if you don’t do your day job, your idleness imposes a loss on the rest of us. In the real world – where the official involuntary unemployment rate is rarely less


When will the Fed end the business cycle?

Via Citi’s chief global strategist, Matt King: Markets seem optimistic that central bank plans to modestly reduce their support for markets in coming months can be achieved without disruption. We are not convinced. When other people’s children behave badly, the temptation is to presume it’s something to do with the parents. But then one day,


Has the Australian dollar peaked?

Markets have seen some geopolitical volatility over my two week break. DXY has firmed while EUR has softened: The Aussie has been whacked against both: But has done better against other EMs: Gold is shining: Brent has been doing better than I expected with a higher shale breakeven than thought as shalers cut budgets: Base


Is Skynet really coming for our jobs?

Cross-posted from Independent Australia: It’s almost scary to think that the world as we know it may well be run by Artificial Intelligence (AI) one day. While the risk of an imminent AI disruption of the labour market may sound like a fantasy, those with the most advanced AI technologies at hand think that AI


Australian dollar breaks 80 cents as Fed balks at lowflation

DXY sank last night: AUD roared above 80 cents: But could not outpace other EM currencies: Gold was firm: Base metals were mixed: Big miners too: EM stocks flew: US high yield too, EM not so much: US bonds were bid: European not so much: Stocks hit record highs again: The Fed balked at lowflation:


Well done, RBA, you now have the hottest currency on the planet

It’s congratulations all around as Australia’s failing post-mining boom adjustment takes another blow today from the hottest currency on the planet. Against DMs it is on fire: Against EMs it is on fire: Gold has nothing on the Aussie: Though oil pretended everything is OK for now: Base metals fell: Big miners eased: EM stocks


Global car sales drive into ditch

Via Macquarie: Solid June and 1H for global car sales but market slowing  Global car sales are important driver of commodity demand, especially PGMs. They continued to see YoY growth in June, and recorded a solid 1H, if not as strong as in 2016. We expect a further slowdown in 2H 2017 and 2018,


Markets soar with the Yellen dove

The AUD powers on against DMs:   Though lost ground against EMs: Gold caught a bid: Brent did not: Base metals rose: Big miners jumped: EM stocks soared: As high yield was bid again: And US bonds: European spreads collapsed: And stocks moonshot: Enter the Yellen dove: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chairman


Bond bears versus policy error

Markets were roughly stable last night. The AUD firmed against USD and was stable against EUR: It was mixed against EM: Gold arrested it’s fall: Brent too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners up and the downtrend is broken for now: EM stocks rebounded: And high yield: Plus Treasuries caught a bid: Everywhere actually: And


We’re all bond bears now

Ray Dalio is: Central Banks’ Reversals Signal the End of One Era and the Beginning of Another For the last nine years, central banks drove interest rates to nil and pumped money into the system creating favorable carries and abundant cash. These actions pushed up asset prices, drove nominal interest rates below nominal growth rates,


Uhlmann vs Bolt on the G19

Apparently this ABC Insiders video hasbeen well-reived in the US: What did we learn about @realDonaldTrump at this #G20? @CUhlmann explains. #Insiders — Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) July 8, 2017 That pretty much sums it up for me. The loon pond answers via Andrew Bolt: Sounds plausible, if you forget who Trump replaced. Didn’t Russia


US jobs solid but no cigar

US jobs were out Friday night and came in ahead of expectations: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining. …The change in total nonfarm


Australia “actively working” on TPP 2.0 sell-out

By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government is reportedly “actively working” to resurrect the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement minus the United States, according to the Australian Government Response to the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade committee’s report on the proposed TPP agreement, released yesterday. Below are the main items [apologies for the screen


Is the Fed about to end the cycle?

Markets puked last night. The AUD fell against a weak USD and strong EUR: The Battler was mixed against EMs: Gold held on: Brent too: And base metals: Miners fell: EM stocks look very toppy: And it’s quite bearish that high yield credit is leading them down: US bonds were bought at the short end


Calm before storm in US-China relations over

Via Sinocism: 1. Calm Before The Storm In The US-China Relationship Is Over Sinocism readers have known for many weeks that this was coming. Investors and analysts may want to rediscover the worries about the relationship that were so prevalent during Trump’s transition period.  This week’s Trump-Xi meeting is unlikely to change the trajectory. Haley warns