Global Macro


Vive Le Pen!

The below charts do not pick up any movement from this morning’s French election results. The US dollar was firm: Commodity currencies too: And gold: Brent was whacked: Base metals were soft: Big miners mixed: EM stocks firm: High yield too: US bonds sold: European spreads tumbled: Stocks were muted: Friday’s big news was that


The great US-China thaw

Cross-posted from Sinocism: The Trump-Xi Citrus Summit seems to have been fairly bland, as predicted in the April 4 newsletter. Overall it looks like a big win for China and Xi Jinping and the Kissingerian approach to US-China relations, to the chagrin of those who believed Trump’s promises that he would take a much tougher line


Are Tomahawk’s about to rain upon North Korea too?

The rhetoric is certainly flying, via the SMH: US President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric against North Korea on Tuesday, writing on Twitter that the country “is looking for trouble” and encouraging North Korea’s neighbour China to “solve the problem.” In a second message, Mr Trump said he told China’s President Xi Jinping during his


Vimal Gor on the great global reflation false signal

From BT’s excellent Vimal Gor today: March was a volatile month during which the market’s obsession with ‘Trump-onomics’ continued to dominate. The start of the month was characterised by bonds selling off as the ‘Trump-flation’ trade was further fuelled by the Fed guiding yields higher into the March rate decision. However, after all the hawkish


US GDP rocks and rolls with consumer

DXY is back: Commodity currencies fell: Gold too: Brent rose as sell side permabulls pile in: Base metals fell: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks lifted: HY too, with oil: US bonds were sold: European spreads widened: And stocks rose, especially in Europe: Two events dominated the night. Reuters hosed off ECB tightening: European Central


IMF on why high household debt is a problem

By Leith van Onselen The IMF has released a new working paper entitled “Excessive Private Sector Leverage and Its Drivers: Evidence from Advanced Economies”, which provides a quantitative assessment of the gaps between actual and sustainable levels of debt and identifies the key factors that drive excessive borrowing. Below are some key extracts: High private


Trumpflation or global reflation?

DXY rebounded strongly last night: Commodity currencies too: Gold fell: Brent rebounded on Libyan issues: Base metals joined the party: Big miners too: And EM stocks: Plus high yield: US bonds were dumped: European spreads compressed: And stocks roared: Trumpflation returns and why not? US consumer confidence soared and manufacturing partials are thumping along. Add


Immigration’s biggest economic myth destroyed

By Leith van Onselen One of the most common arguments used to support mass immigration is the claim that it keeps the population young and productive, and without constant immigration, the population would grow old and the economy would stagnate. For example, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has stated previously that “anyone who thinks it’s smart