DXY fell Friday night: AUD was up against DMs: But down against EMs: Gold was up a bit: Brent roared as the US rig count fell: Base metals were mixed: EM stocks firmed: High yield was mixed: Big miners stable: US yield edged up: Not European: Stocks edged down: The White House conflict is over
By Gavin R Putland Some else wants to do your job. So why does it matter if you do it? In a logical world, if you don’t do your day job, your idleness imposes a loss on the rest of us. In the real world – where the official involuntary unemployment rate is rarely less
DXY held small gains last night: The Aussie fell against DMs: And was mixed against EMs: Gold signaled more risk for USD weakness: Brent held on: Base metals unwound the hysteria a little: EM stocks took a hit: US high yield did too. EM was better: US yields fell sharply: Europe a little less: Stocks
The DXY reversed last night as Fed minutes came in dovish: The Aussie dollar roared: But fell against other EMs: Gold took off: Brent fell: But base metals went nuts (as did iron ore): Big miners followed: And EM stocks: High yield firmed: US yields fell: European too: European stocks bounced, US a little: DXY
DXY poured it on last night: Whether that is a double bottom I know not but the post-2014 support level has held. AUD was weak against USD and EUR: But strong against other EMs: Gold got hosed: Brent held: Base metals were mixed: Big miners weak: EM stocks held on: EM high yield looks to
DXY rebounded with risk overnight: The Aussie was weak against both majors: It was also weak against other EMs: Gold fell: The Brent short squeeze ended with a bang: Base metals rose: Big miners too: EM stocks bounced: High yield too: US yields rose but the curve flattened: European spreads tightened: And stocks launched: The
Via Citi’s chief global strategist, Matt King: Markets seem optimistic that central bank plans to modestly reduce their support for markets in coming months can be achieved without disruption. We are not convinced. When other people’s children behave badly, the temptation is to presume it’s something to do with the parents. But then one day,
Markets have seen some geopolitical volatility over my two week break. DXY has firmed while EUR has softened: The Aussie has been whacked against both: But has done better against other EMs: Gold is shining: Brent has been doing better than I expected with a higher shale breakeven than thought as shalers cut budgets: Base
Cross-posted from Independent Australia: It’s almost scary to think that the world as we know it may well be run by Artificial Intelligence (AI) one day. While the risk of an imminent AI disruption of the labour market may sound like a fantasy, those with the most advanced AI technologies at hand think that AI
DXY sank last night: AUD roared above 80 cents: But could not outpace other EM currencies: Gold was firm: Base metals were mixed: Big miners too: EM stocks flew: US high yield too, EM not so much: US bonds were bid: European not so much: Stocks hit record highs again: The Fed balked at lowflation:
DXY rebounded last night: AUD rose against DMs: Gold fell: Brent roared back on OPEC jawboning: Base metals rocketed. Copper broke out: Big miners flew: EM stocks tried but failed: As high yield rightly yawned: US yields jumped and the curve steepened: Same in Europe: And stocks hit record highs again in the US: OPEC jawboned.
Via Citi: Balance sheet reductions and tapering Since 2008, central bank balance sheets across advanced economies (AEs) have expanded dramatically (e.g. Fed balance sheet went from 6% of GDP in 2007 to around 25% of GDP in 2015 and the ECB balance sheet went from 13% of GDP in 2007 to around 38% currently) and
It’s congratulations all around as Australia’s failing post-mining boom adjustment takes another blow today from the hottest currency on the planet. Against DMs it is on fire: Against EMs it is on fire: Gold has nothing on the Aussie: Though oil pretended everything is OK for now: Base metals fell: Big miners eased: EM stocks
The Aussie is flying against USD and EUR: And EMs: Gold finally rallied, giving some confirmation to further USD weakness: Brent was soft: Base metals were mixed: Big miners mostly up: EM stocks are in heaven: Tracking a rebound in high yield which is oil dependent: The Us yield curve is flattening again: European spreads
Via Macquarie: Solid June and 1H for global car sales but market slowing Global car sales are important driver of commodity demand, especially PGMs. They continued to see YoY growth in June, and recorded a solid 1H, if not as strong as in 2016. We expect a further slowdown in 2H 2017 and 2018,
The AUD powers on against DMs: Though lost ground against EMs: Gold caught a bid: Brent did not: Base metals rose: Big miners jumped: EM stocks soared: As high yield was bid again: And US bonds: European spreads collapsed: And stocks moonshot: Enter the Yellen dove: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chairman
From Vimal Gore at BT: A change in the trend? Just as the markets had convinced themselves they were in for an uneventful carryharvesting summer, something started to change at the end of the month, with central bank communication seemingly dominating economic data with respect to their impact on market moves. Whilst the theme of
By Leith van Onselen The Economist has penned an interesting counter to the commonly held view that an ageing population spells disaster for an economy: Globally, a combination of falling birthrates and increasing life spans will raise the “old-age dependency ratio” (the ratio of people aged 65 or over to those aged 15-64) from 13
Markets were roughly stable last night. The AUD firmed against USD and was stable against EUR: It was mixed against EM: Gold arrested it’s fall: Brent too: Base metals were mixed: Big miners up and the downtrend is broken for now: EM stocks rebounded: And high yield: Plus Treasuries caught a bid: Everywhere actually: And
Ray Dalio is: Central Banks’ Reversals Signal the End of One Era and the Beginning of Another For the last nine years, central banks drove interest rates to nil and pumped money into the system creating favorable carries and abundant cash. These actions pushed up asset prices, drove nominal interest rates below nominal growth rates,
Apparently this ABC Insiders video hasbeen well-reived in the US: What did we learn about @realDonaldTrump at this #G20? @CUhlmann explains. #Insiders pic.twitter.com/TGOXdiFWhB — Insiders ABC (@InsidersABC) July 8, 2017 That pretty much sums it up for me. The loon pond answers via Andrew Bolt: Sounds plausible, if you forget who Trump replaced. Didn’t Russia
US jobs were out Friday night and came in ahead of expectations: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining. …The change in total nonfarm
By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government is reportedly “actively working” to resurrect the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement minus the United States, according to the Australian Government Response to the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade committee’s report on the proposed TPP agreement, released yesterday. Below are the main items [apologies for the screen
Markets puked last night. The AUD fell against a weak USD and strong EUR: The Battler was mixed against EMs: Gold held on: Brent too: And base metals: Miners fell: EM stocks look very toppy: And it’s quite bearish that high yield credit is leading them down: US bonds were bought at the short end
Via Sinocism: 1. Calm Before The Storm In The US-China Relationship Is Over Sinocism readers have known for many weeks that this was coming. Investors and analysts may want to rediscover the worries about the relationship that were so prevalent during Trump’s transition period. This week’s Trump-Xi meeting is unlikely to change the trajectory. Haley warns
