Global Macro

15

2nd child policy won’t cure China’s demographic woes

By Leith van Onselen I have noted previously how China’s economy will soon face still headwinds from an ageing population (see here, here, here, and here). Essentially, China’s ageing problem stems from its ‘one child policy’, which was brought into effect in the early-1970s and is credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979

0

Measuring global reflation

Some nice charts here from Morgan Stanley: Global reflation continues to gain momentum, amid upside inflation surprises in DM and EM. Inflation is now close to DM central bank targets. We recently raised our China CPI/PPI forecasts and see upside risks to inflation projections globally. Global inflation surprised on the upside in December and January

4

Fed warns on Trumpflation

The USD was roughly stable last night: Commodity currencies were mixed: Gold held on: Brent fell back: Base metals too: Big miners were hit: EM stock held gains: US high yield too: The US bond curve flattened: European spreads widened: And stocks held highs: Fed minutes summed up where we’re at pretty well: In discussing

2

Can the world grow as China slows again?

UBS has a warning on that front: Our global credit impulse (covering 77% of global GDP) has suddenly collapsed…as the chart below shows the ‘global’ credit impulse over the last 18 months is essentially mainly China (the green shaded bit), which even now is still creating new credit at an annualized rate of around 30pp

37

Grantham: ‘Twas capitalism that killed capitalism

From the always essential Jeremy Grantham’s latest note: An extraordinary, large exit poll run by Reuters/Ipsos in which 45,000 people participated took place in the early evening on election day in the US. To say this was a detailed poll is an understatement. The spreadsheet for each question in small print runs the length of

5

Book review: Between Debt and the Devil by Adair Turner

By David Collyer: Adair Turner became chair of Britain’s Financial Services Authority the day after the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Restoring the solvency of key British-based globally systemically important banks and repairing the damage caused by unsustainable private debt fell largely on his broad shoulders. This is not an easy or lively read.