Global Macro

14

Satyajit Das: Prepare for the next GFC

Satyajit Das at Domainfax: Several factors could lead to a dangerous shortage of liquidity in the event of a crisis. First, since 2009, low interest rates have driven investors into riskier, less liquid assets in search of return. These include longer-dated securities, corporate bonds and emerging-market issues — frequently of low credit quality — as

21

Jeff Gundlach’s suicide mission

Some from Bloomberg: “Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission,” Gundlach said in a webcast discussing his DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund. “We are increasing the the size of the deficit while we’re raising interest rates.” …”It’s pretty much unprecedented that we’re seeing this level debt expansion so late in

2

Why cutting company taxes will fail to boost investment

By Leith van Onselen While the Turnbull Government and the Business Council of Australia (BCA) continue to insist that reducing the company tax rate is essential to fuel investment, jobs and wages growth, evidence of the impact from the recent US corporate tax cuts to 21% from 35% continues to disappoint, fuelling little more than

42

Weekend Chartfest 2 – 3 June, 2018

Australia   Australia – temporary visas   Declines in 457 visa numbers   Australian National Minimum Wage Increases   Australia – Average and Median Incomes   Australia – Capex   Australia – Capex by State   Australia – changes in dwelling values   Australia – share of dwellings by price growth   Australia – Sydney

10

Is printing money or people the fix for secular stagnation?

It’s obvious that Australia’s mass immigration program is a giant scam perpetrated by the politico-housing complex. But it is an interesting thought experiment to treat is as considered macro policy versus the alternatives. So let’s do it. In 2011 Australia joined the secular stagnation that now rules unchallenged across developed economies worldwide. This malady is

27

Australia’s worst nightmare is back…another global banking freeze

I’m sometimes skeptical of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. His bearishness is so relentless and florid that it’s hard to keep up. But every so often he scribbles such a ripping piece that it is impossible to ignore. To wit, from The Telegraph comes Italexit: The EU’s gendarmes are now eyeing Italy’s rebel coalition with professional curiosity. This

7

A decade after GFC, global debt hits record high

By Leith van Onselen The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new “cutting-edge dataset” measuring private and public debt across the global economy since the 1950s. Below are the key findings from this report: The first observation is that, almost a decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global debt, at $164 trillion—or about

11

China/US trade war cancelled

Via the FT: The US has stepped back from the brink of a trade war with China after Washington halted plans to impose tariffs on up to $150bn of imports, according to the US Treasury secretary. “We’re putting the trade war on hold,” Steven Mnuchin said in a television interview on Sunday. The declaration from

36

What sort of ‘bullshit job’ do you have?

By Leith van Onselen Back in the early-1930s, renowned economist, John Maynard Keynes, predicted that technical innovations and rising productivity would mean that advanced country workers would be able to work only 15 hours a week and still enjoy rising living standards. Back in 2013, David Graeber achieved international notoriety when he penned a highly amusing,

23

Macrobusiness Chartfest 12 May, 2018

AUSTRALIA Australian Federal Government Balances since Federation – note the 50s & 60s, our government is looking to debt load and dissipate with population ponzi again. Australian government debt to GDP – we have driven it higher to bloat property prices and trash our education sector, while exporting the non-mining or agriculture external facing sectors

68

Switzerland prepares to vote on sovereign money

Big news this: On 10th June 2018 Switzerland will be the first country in the world to have a national referendum on the introduction of Sovereign Money. A referendum result that is as positive as possible in Switzerland will help monetary reformers worldwide to make significant progress. However, our opponents are powerful and will try to

11

Echoes of the Mining GFC

DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked. I reckon there’s another 5% in this move for both as the mad EUR long unwinds: AUD held on against DMs: EMs are breaking: Gold is at the brink: Oil looks toppy: Base metals are fighting a losing battle: Big miners too: EM stocks are breaking: EM

11

Australian dollar clubbed as Euro breaks

DXY is on on fire: As EUR plunges: AUD is getting clubbed: Gold held on manfully: Oil too, held aloft by Iran: Oil is holding together the entire commodities complex: And Big Miners: Even EM stocks: But EM junk debt is telling the tale. Sell! As US yields rise, though the curve flattened: Bunds were

4

US inflation bogey upsets markets

DXY climbed last night: AUD was clubbed: Gold fell: Oil too: Base metals flamed out: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks fell: Junk too: Treasuries were killed but the curve steepened for once: Bunds the same: Stocks pulled back: US data was decent with a good Pilly Fed and solid Fed Beige Book. The US

5

Dirt roars as China stimulates

DXY was firm last night: AUD was firm too: But not as strong as EM: Gold tried and failed to go higher: Oil succeeded: Base metals were strong: Big miners went nuts: EM stocks were firm: Junk didn’t buy it: US yields rose: Not bunds: Stocks firmed: So, as China cut its reserve ratio requirement

7

Stocks go boom as Trump zips it

All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor

3

“Extremely difficult” for US to re-join TPP

By Leith van Onselen Following intense lobbying from US farmers and the Republican Party, it was revealed on Friday that US President Donald Trump has ordered his senior economic and trade advisers to examine the possibility of the US re-entering the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership, dubbed by MB as “TPP 2.0”. However, international trade