Via Capital Economics: The conventional view of the long-term prospects for the global economy can be summarised as: EMs good, DMs bad. Like most things, however, we suspect that the conventional view is likely to be wrong. Last week we published our first Long Term Global Economic Outlook, which sets out forecasts for the major
By Leith van Onselen The UK has cracked down on their equivalent of Special Investor Visas, halting the scheme because of fears it is being used to launder money. From BBC News: Ministers are halting a “gold-plated” visa scheme offering foreign investors a fast-track to settling in the UK, as part of a crackdown on financial
Via FTAlphaville: With roughly six months to go until the US expansion becomes the longest on record, there has been growing concern that the global economy more broadly is running on late-cycle fumes. Lofty valuations, soaring profit margins, a flattening yield curve and a Federal Reserve tightening in the face of (admittedly muted) inflationary pressures
Via Capital Economics: The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were a
Australia Housing Finance Australian house prices v the rest Australian house prices to income v the rest Sydney & Melbourne Auction Clearances Employing Sectors Consumer Confidence Housing Sales and Stamp
By Leith van Onselen At the beginning of the year, the Turnbull Government revealed that Australia would head into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was expected to be concluded by year’s end. The RCEP is backed by China and also includes the ASEAN countries along
Some nice charts from Damien Bey as Credit Suisse give us context: Credit Suisse’s proprietary measure of risk appetite very briefly entered panic in mid-August 2018. It has since staged a modest recovery to less negative levels. 2. Past cycles show that after risk appetite enters panic, small caps tend to outperform in the following
Via Capital Economics today: Our view that the world economy will undergo a reasonably sharp slowdown over the next couple of years stands in contrast to the relatively rosy consensus. (See Chart 1.) And it has led several clients to ask the obvious question: what causes the downturn in our forecast that others may be
DXY is breaking out. EUR is weak and CNY the meat in the sandwich: The rising DXY sat on any AUD rebound but it rose against other DMs: Was mixed against EMs: Gold flamed out: Oil firmed: Base metals sagged: Big miners snapped back: As did EM stocks: And junk: Treasuries were sold a little:
DXY took off last night. EUR was down and looks precarious. CNY firmed: AUD was hit against the USD but held up against the tumbling EUR: EMs were mixed: Gold held on aided by worries over EUR: Oil fell: Base metals were OK: Big miners tumbled anyway: EM stocks were smoked: Junk was dragged in
Via Axios which has good sources on this stuff: President Trump has no intention of easing his tariffs on China, according to three sources with knowledge of his private conversations. Instead, these sources say he wants the Chinese leaders to feel more pain from his tariffs — which he believes need more time to fully
By Leith van Onselen Credit Suisse has released its 2017 Global Wealth Report, which reveals that Australian households are the wealthiest in the world when measured by median wealth: Household wealth in Australia grew at a fast pace between 2000 and 2012 in US dollar terms, except for a short interruption in 2008. The average
Volatility continues. DXY took off as EUR and CNY swooned: AUD was thumped against the USD but lifted against EUR: EM forex rolled over: Gold held on despite the rising DXY. EUR fracturing is its best friend: Oil fell: Base metals fell: Miners fell: EM stocks got hosed: Junk fell: Treasuries were bid: Bunds were
DXY was down overnight with CNY and EUR up: AUD was up modestly against DMs: But could not match EMs: Gold rallied again: Oil held on: Base metals fell: But miners rose: EM stocks fell: But junk rallied: As Treasuries were bought: And bunds: Even Italy a bit: Stocks fell moderately: Westpac has the wrap:
Via Bloomie, this is not what the market needed: Saudi Arabia threatened on Sunday to use its economic clout to retaliate against any punitive measures, hitting back after U.S. President Donald Trump said he could take action against the world’s largest oil-exporter over the disappearance of a government critic. “The kingdom emphasizes that it will
I’ll just leave this one here given the end of the world probably rates a mention, Via The Guardian: The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of
Via the excellent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie: EMs in the crosshairs: Between war games, fake news and bonds From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying. At the same time, global liquidity is compressing while rates are rising. Growing uncertainty, contracting liquidity & rising cost of capital will continue to place non-US assets
Via Pew: America’s global image plummeted following the election of President Donald Trump, amid widespread opposition to his administration’s policies and a widely shared lack of confidence in his leadership. Now, as the second anniversary of Trump’s election approaches, a new 25-nation Pew Research Center survey finds that Trump’s international image remains poor, while ratings for the
The US/China Cold War is here and how. It’s brinkmanship at sea, via The Australian: Australia has warned Beijing that the use of “intimidation or aggressive tactics” was “destabilising and potentially dangerous” following reports a Chinese navy destroyer launched an “unsafe” challenge to a US warship in the South China Sea. In the latest conflict
The Guardian, along with much of the world’s press, had a sneerfest at Donald Trump’s expense yesterday: For the rest of the world, President Donald Trump’s America is a laughingstock, not a leader. That was the takeaway from Trump’s speech to the 2018 United Nations general assembly. Trump opened his speech the same way he
Donald Trump, America’s first Jacksonian president in the modern era, launched a new broadside on China at the UN last night: America’s policy of principled realism means that we will not be held hostage to old, discredited ideology and experts that have been proven wrong over the years. This is true, not only in matters
By Leith van Onselen Australia has again taken the silver medal for having the world’s second most indebted households according to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The next table shows the ratios of household debt to GDP as at the March quarter of 2018. As you can see, Switzerland (128%)
Via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (h/t Researchtime): (i) “When the next recession comes, it is going to be deeper and last longer than in the past. We don’t have any strategy to deal with it,”… a bleak scenario more akin to the depressions of the 1870s or the 1930s than anything experienced in the post-War era… a
Via Nouriel Roubini today at Project Syndicate: As we mark the decennial of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what
I like Ambrose but this is way over the top: The US and China are on a combustible escalation path that can end only when there is economic blood on the floor and the political pain threshold of one side or the other has been hit. …In reality, Beijing would slam the door closed on
Via SocGen comes a handy scorecard for EM vulnerability: External position Current account deficit currencies underperform those with a surplus in times of stress. A country with a current account deficit requires a steady inflow of foreign capital, which can dry up when sentiment toward emerging markets is depressed. Eight countries have deficits – the
By Leith van Onselen Jayati Ghosh – Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi – has penned a thought-provoking opinion piece arguing that so-called “free trade” has entrenched corporate interests and worsened inequality: Some argue that free trade is being demonized simply because people do not understand what is in their own
Via JP Morgan: What will the next crisis look like? This year marks the 10th anniversary of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and also the 50th anniversary of the 1968 global protests. Currently, there are financial and social parallels to both of these events. Leading into the 2008 GFC, some financial institutions underwrote products
DXY was down overnight. CNY and EUR were up: AUD hit new two year lows against DMs but managed to rebound: As EMs cratered: Gold was firm: Oil weak: And base metals: Plus miners: EM stocks are puking: Led as usual by EM junk which is free fall again: Treasuries sold too: As did bonds:
Via the Federal Reserve: Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions Michael D. Bauer and Thomas M. Mertens The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions has recently received a great deal of public attention. An inversion of the yield curve—when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates—has been a
