Global Macro


UK COVID cases continue to crash after reopening

Just over a week ago, as UK COVID cases soared to 50,000 a day, an open letter in The Lancet medical journal from more than 1000 doctors labelled Britain’s ‘Freedom Day’ opening up a “dangerous and unethical experiment”. As residents inundated nightclubs, pubs, bars and music festivals, experts warned that COVID cases could soar to


Ireland shows how to successfully wean off property

I am currently pulling property-related data for an upcoming subscriber special report on the property markets of English-speaking nations. Yesterday I uncovered a treasure trove of data on Ireland, which has managed to successfully deleverage from one of the world’s biggest property bubbles leading into the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The below charts tell


Is Sweden vindicated on COVID?

One year ago Sweden was lambasted far and wide for carelessly failing to implement COVID restrictions and ‘letting the virus rip’. Sweden’s Nordic peers each implemented lockdowns, resulting in much lower infection numbers: And lower deaths: But at the cost of reduced freedoms and liberty. One year on and Sweden is enjoying the near lowest


UK COVID infections plummet after reopening

In the six days following ‘Freedom Day’, which saw all remaining COVID restrictions lifted across the UK, new case numbers have fallen dramatically: Only 29,173 new cases were recorded on Sunday, down significantly from the 48,161 registered one week earlier on 18 July. New case numbers also fell for the fifth consecutive day for the


UK the litmus test for ending lockdowns

Anyone hoping for an end to lockdowns should be watching the UK very closely over the next six weeks. On Monday, ‘Freedom Day’ arrived in the UK whereby remaining COVID restrictions were ended. In particular: face masks were no longer legally required; work-from-home guidance ended; social distancing rules were axed; and limits were lifted on


Where next for reflation?

Goldman with the note: 1. The shift towards more cyclical and value leadership that dominated the period from the 2020 March low to the beginning of this year reflected a particularly strong inflection point in growth and inflation expectations following unprecedented policy support and progress on vaccinations. Given that there were record valuation spreads between growth


The future: Widespread COVID infections, minimal deaths

The United Kingdom and the Netherlands provide an interesting case study into what Australia’s future could look like once the majority of the population is fully vaccinated. Both nations have already unwound most COVID-19 restrictions. Britain on Monday is scheduled to do away with all of its legal coronavirus restrictions in what is dubbed “Freedom


Vaccinated UK brushes aside COVID Delta surge

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says England is “tantalisingly close” to lifting remaining COVID restrictions, despite a surge in daily infections. The UK recorded 31,772 daily infections today with the rate of infection at its highest since January: The reason why the UK can lift remaining restrictions is because of the nation’s high vaccination rate. Over


OECD: Australia’s labour market recovery among world’s best

The OECD has released its 2021 Employment Outlook, which included the below chart showing that Australia’s labour market rebound has been among the best in the developed world: Not only is Australia’s unemployment rate lower than the OECD average, but it is also one of only a handful of nations where the unemployment rate has


UK to fully reopen on 19 July

UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid has admitted that daily COVID infections are likely to hit 100,000 once restrictions are fully lifted on 19 July. However, he is not concerned as he believes the UK’s high vaccination rate has broken the link between COVID infections, hospitalisation and deaths: Mr Javid insisted opening “was not a gamble”


Israel shows what a post-COVID future looks like

Life in Israel is quickly returning back to ‘normal’ amid mass vaccination of its population with the Pfizer vaccine. Two-thirds of Israelis have received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine: Whereas 60% of Israelis have been fully vaccinated with two shots: With herd immunity beckoning, the Israeli Government has greatly loosened restrictions and


Global inventory super cycle tops out

There is no commodity supercycle. There is a global inventory supercycle underway thanks to the COVID shock, stimulus and reopening. It works roughly like this: Such a cycle can trick the unwary (and markets) into believing that short-term changes in demand patterns and inflationary impacts are permanent. They are not. There is no saying precisely


Will the Deltra strain crash it all?

Goldman with the note. A marginal negative for EUR and therefore AUD. Although economic activity is rebounding strongly across Europe in light of the ongoing reopening, there are rising concerns around the spread of the more transmissive ‘delta’ variant of COVID-19. While new infections continue to decline in the Euro area as a whole, a


Yes, Australia can learn from Nordic nations

Andrew Scott and Rod Campbell, authors of the new book The Nordic edge, have penned an article in The AFR calling on Australian policy makers to emulate the Nords on policy: Australia should look “at countries that consistently produce desirable social outcomes” – the Nordic nations. “The Nordics among the world’s most prosperous, equal and


Aussies world’s richest thanks to expensive homes

One ‘benefit’ of having some of the world’s most expensive homes, alongside a high home ownership rate, its that it makes households ‘rich’. That’s the conclusion from the latest Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, which has declared Australian households the worlds richest: The median Australian adult finished 2020 with a net worth of $US238,000, making


Life after COVID not so boom

Current inflationary pressures are an inventory supercycle that will soon pass. Deutsche with the note: The US payrolls release on Friday showed employment at high-street shops flatlining for the third consecutive month at 20% below pre-COVID. Retail employment has been in decline for the last three years, but in a few months COVID has accelerated


RBA: Pandemic stimulus unprecedented

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its June Bulletin, which includes an interesting report on the unprecedented stimulus undertaken by the world’s economies. The first chart below shows the ramp-up in debt across advanced and emerging economies, which was driven higher by pandemic stimulus: These direct measures, including those that are expected to


China has lost Australia

Anyone wondering why the Liberal-National Federal Government did a U-turn on Australia’s relations with China over recent years?  Wonder why Australians still aren’t enamoured with the ALP opposition, despite a government coming across as misogynist, incompetent, and prone to pandering to the whims of corporate Australia and the 1%? Ironically, the barely concealed CCP propagandist