Global Macro

By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA Australian CPI inflation surprised to the downside at 2.1%/yr in May 2025.

As the conflict in the Middle East continues, there is a strange divergence in perceptions about what may come next.

US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the United States has bombed nuclear sites in Iran BBC Reuters Al Jazeera ABC Well, it is now on for young and old.

By Lucinda Jerogin, associate economist at CBA: Real GDP surprised to the downside at 0.2%/qtr.

The Productivity Commission (PC) released a research report entitled “Productivity before and after COVID-19”, which claims that Australia experienced a ‘productivity bubble’ during the pandemic, in which measured labour productivity rose to a record high between January 2020 and March 2022 before returning to pre-pandemic levels in June 2023.

Canadian analyst Ben Rabidoux posted the below graphic on Twitter (X), asking whether Canada should place a country cap on its permanent residency intake: The graphic shows that India has dominated Canada’s permanent residency intake, with around 560,000 admissions between 2020 and 2024.

China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions.

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong at CBA have written an excellent report explaining the economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation.

United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer has called for the nation to take back its borders, saying the UK is becoming an “island of strangers” and that immigrants should learn to speak English.

Global oil prices fell to around $US60 per barrel last week after peaking above $US80 earlier this year and holding above $US70 just before “Liberation Day”.

Twitter (X) user Oliver in WA posted the following stunning chart showing how Australians are heavily overweight in housing (4.5 times GDP) compared to other English-speaking nations.

The last thing the world needs is another war.

Over the past decade, the Liberal government in Canada has run the nation’s biggest immigration program in history, which culminated in a record 1.2 million net migrants arriving in the 2023-24 financial year.

This week’s CPI data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed that the post-pandemic inflation surge is firmly in the rearview mirror. Australia’s policy-relevant underlying inflation fell to 2.9% in Q1 2025, to be tracked within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%.

Proponents of mass immigration claim that it improves living standards by increasing productivity and ameliorating the aging of the population.

China is easily the world’s largest carbon emitter, comprising 31.5% of global emissions in 2023, according to Our World In Data.

The Trump Administration is the best thing that has happened to the incumbent Liberal government of Canada.

It’s time to acknowledge that the dream of ‘net zero’ emissions is dead. The world’s top three carbon emitters are China (31.5% of total), the United States (13.0% of total), and India (8.1% of total). In 2023, these three countries accounted for more than half (52.6%) of global carbon emissions.

In the report below, Luke Yeaman, Chief Economist at CBA, examines whether the era of globalisation over. Trump, Tariffs and Trade: A Different Kind of Wall The era of trade liberalisation, free market reforms, deregulation and fiscal discipline (the Washington Consensus) is officially dead and buried.

TS Lombard with the note. Trump delivered on campaign promises applying a 54% (34% “reciprocal” and 20% fentanyl) tariff rate to imports from China.

The ferrous jaws closed somewhat with all commodities last night.

Geoff Russ from Canada’s National Post penned a cautionary tale on how out-of-control immigration has degraded Canada’s economy and living standards.

At the beginning of the year, the incumbent Canadian Liberal Party were facing a wipeout at this year’s general election.

I posted two charts on Thursday showing the monumental task of transitioning Australia off fossil fuels.