Just over a week ago, as UK COVID cases soared to 50,000 a day, an open letter in The Lancet medical journal from more than 1000 doctors labelled Britain’s ‘Freedom Day’ opening up a “dangerous and unethical experiment”. As residents inundated nightclubs, pubs, bars and music festivals, experts warned that COVID cases could soar to
I am currently pulling property-related data for an upcoming subscriber special report on the property markets of English-speaking nations. Yesterday I uncovered a treasure trove of data on Ireland, which has managed to successfully deleverage from one of the world’s biggest property bubbles leading into the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The below charts tell
One year ago Sweden was lambasted far and wide for carelessly failing to implement COVID restrictions and ‘letting the virus rip’. Sweden’s Nordic peers each implemented lockdowns, resulting in much lower infection numbers: And lower deaths: But at the cost of reduced freedoms and liberty. One year on and Sweden is enjoying the near lowest
In the six days following ‘Freedom Day’, which saw all remaining COVID restrictions lifted across the UK, new case numbers have fallen dramatically: Only 29,173 new cases were recorded on Sunday, down significantly from the 48,161 registered one week earlier on 18 July. New case numbers also fell for the fifth consecutive day for the
If there is one place in the world at the moment that you should be watching it is the UK. It has the world’s highest full COVID vaccination rate: And on Monday the UK declared ‘Freedom Day’, which lifted remaining COVID restrictions, including: face masks no longer legally required; work-from-home guidance ended; social distancing rules
One of the biggest structural changes arising from the COVID pandemic has been the shift to remote work. Through necessity, office workers across the globe were suddenly forced to log-on remotely via the internet and work from home. A new survey of 12,500 employed people in 29 countries for the World Economic Forum (WEF) suggests
Anyone hoping for an end to lockdowns should be watching the UK very closely over the next six weeks. On Monday, ‘Freedom Day’ arrived in the UK whereby remaining COVID restrictions were ended. In particular: face masks were no longer legally required; work-from-home guidance ended; social distancing rules were axed; and limits were lifted on
Goldman with the note: 1. The shift towards more cyclical and value leadership that dominated the period from the 2020 March low to the beginning of this year reflected a particularly strong inflection point in growth and inflation expectations following unprecedented policy support and progress on vaccinations. Given that there were record valuation spreads between growth
The United Kingdom and the Netherlands provide an interesting case study into what Australia’s future could look like once the majority of the population is fully vaccinated. Both nations have already unwound most COVID-19 restrictions. Britain on Monday is scheduled to do away with all of its legal coronavirus restrictions in what is dubbed “Freedom
At the head of the queue are those that see good news as entirely good news! JPM was last into in the reflation trade and it appears it will be last out as well: Cross-Asset Strategy: We maintain our pro-risk view given the ongoing recovery from the pandemic, accommodative monetary policy, and still moderate positioning
Prime Minister Boris Johnson says England is “tantalisingly close” to lifting remaining COVID restrictions, despite a surge in daily infections. The UK recorded 31,772 daily infections today with the rate of infection at its highest since January: The reason why the UK can lift remaining restrictions is because of the nation’s high vaccination rate. Over
I love Viktor Schvets, a reconstructed Marxist that somehow managed to sneak inside Macquarie Bank. So on the money.
I get by with a little help from my friends. Albert Edwards of SocGen with the note: The unravelling of the inflation/reflation trade has accelerated over the past week.US 10y bond yields continue to decline and have now broken a crucial technical level. This could see the rally accelerate sharply, and with it, the continued
The OECD has released its 2021 Employment Outlook, which included the below chart showing that Australia’s labour market rebound has been among the best in the developed world: Not only is Australia’s unemployment rate lower than the OECD average, but it is also one of only a handful of nations where the unemployment rate has
UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid has admitted that daily COVID infections are likely to hit 100,000 once restrictions are fully lifted on 19 July. However, he is not concerned as he believes the UK’s high vaccination rate has broken the link between COVID infections, hospitalisation and deaths: Mr Javid insisted opening “was not a gamble”
JPM with the note: Treasury yields declined 2-6bp following a somewhat weak ISM services index release. The reaction of the Treasury market to data over the last week and the lack of reaction in the TIPS market indicates this move has been exaggerated by short covering…. …this has left 10-year Treasury yields about 25bp, or
Life in Israel is quickly returning back to ‘normal’ amid mass vaccination of its population with the Pfizer vaccine. Two-thirds of Israelis have received at least one dose of the Pfizer vaccine: Whereas 60% of Israelis have been fully vaccinated with two shots: With herd immunity beckoning, the Israeli Government has greatly loosened restrictions and
See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Europe Americas Asia Vaccination & Cases More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data
There is no commodity supercycle. There is a global inventory supercycle underway thanks to the COVID shock, stimulus and reopening. It works roughly like this: Such a cycle can trick the unwary (and markets) into believing that short-term changes in demand patterns and inflationary impacts are permanent. They are not. There is no saying precisely
The UK has recorded 26,068 new cases of COVID-19, the highest daily figure since 29 January. The official data also shows that there have been an additional 14 deaths from the coronavirus. Daily cases have been rising for more than a month, but fatalities have remained low, with scientists saying the rapid vaccine rollout has
See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Europe Americas Asia Vaccination & Cases More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data
Goldman with the note. A marginal negative for EUR and therefore AUD. Although economic activity is rebounding strongly across Europe in light of the ongoing reopening, there are rising concerns around the spread of the more transmissive ‘delta’ variant of COVID-19. While new infections continue to decline in the Euro area as a whole, a
Prime Minister Scott Morrison told Sunrise yesterday that hospitalisations not infections will become the key COVID benchmark once populations are vaccinated: “Yes, we will get outbreaks from time to time and will deal with those outbreaks, but it would be a mistake to think that if we have high rates of vaccination that you won‘t
Andrew Scott and Rod Campbell, authors of the new book The Nordic edge, have penned an article in The AFR calling on Australian policy makers to emulate the Nords on policy: Australia should look “at countries that consistently produce desirable social outcomes” – the Nordic nations. “The Nordics among the world’s most prosperous, equal and
One ‘benefit’ of having some of the world’s most expensive homes, alongside a high home ownership rate, its that it makes households ‘rich’. That’s the conclusion from the latest Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, which has declared Australian households the worlds richest: The median Australian adult finished 2020 with a net worth of $US238,000, making
See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Europe Americas Asia Vaccination & Cases More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data Data sources
Current inflationary pressures are an inventory supercycle that will soon pass. Deutsche with the note: The US payrolls release on Friday showed employment at high-street shops flatlining for the third consecutive month at 20% below pre-COVID. Retail employment has been in decline for the last three years, but in a few months COVID has accelerated
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its June Bulletin, which includes an interesting report on the unprecedented stimulus undertaken by the world’s economies. The first chart below shows the ramp-up in debt across advanced and emerging economies, which was driven higher by pandemic stimulus: These direct measures, including those that are expected to
The UK is experiencing a third wave of the coronavirus, with 11,007 new COVID cases recorded overnight: UK now has the highest infection rate in Europe, according to new figures from Our World in Data: That’s where the bad news ends, however. The UK also has very high vaccination rates, with more than 42.2 million
Anyone wondering why the Liberal-National Federal Government did a U-turn on Australia’s relations with China over recent years? Wonder why Australians still aren’t enamoured with the ALP opposition, despite a government coming across as misogynist, incompetent, and prone to pandering to the whims of corporate Australia and the 1%? Ironically, the barely concealed CCP propagandist
