Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Federal balance sheet goes higher for the 4th straight week. “Quantitative Tightening” – St Louis Fed Fear in the Markets; Macro Commentary and Key Takeaways – Valkyrie Cryptofunds The Firefighter Arsonist’s Paradox — Central Bankers Are Now Worried About Inflation – Medium Chances of global recession nearing 50% –
Bloomberg Economics has released its list of the world’s riskiest housing markets that are most vulnerable to a house price crash. Not surprisingly, New Zealand has taken out first place after experiencing extreme price growth over the pandemic, which helped drive home valuations to absurd levels based on price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios: The potential impacts
Westpac this week ratchetted up fixed mortgage rates by 0.5% across all loan terms: ANZ has been even more aggressive, hiking fixed rates by 0.9%, which has taken rates above 5% for most loan terms: The next table illustrates the sharp lift in fixed rates over the past year, with rates already more than doubling
The Victorian Andrews Government will reshuffle its frontbench ahead of the state election in November, after four senior cabinet ministers advised that they will retire from politics. James Merlino, Martin Foley, Lisa Neville and Martin Pakula have announced that they will not contest the election, and will step down from their portfolios to give their
ACTU secretary Sally McManus has dismissed RBA governor Phil Lowe’s fears of a wage-price spiral as a “boomer fantasy”, given Australia abandoned centralised bargaining and wage indexation decades ago: “We’re not achieving 3.5 per cent, let alone 5 per cent, let alone 7 per cent. And so to think somehow that the system is going
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released household wealth data for the March quarter of 2022, which revealed that total household wealth increased by 1.2% ($173 billion) over the March quarter 2022 reaching a record $14,891 billion: Total dwelling assets rose another 2.2% ($210 billion) over the quarter to a record high $9.7 trillion,
CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index tanked in the week ending 23 June, plunging by 0.33% across the five major capitals – the biggest weekly decline since January 2019: Every major capital city market experienced price falls, with the exception of Adelaide: Sydney and Melbourne house prices are tanking, down 1.13% and 0.79% respectively so far
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released quarterly employment data, which shows the healthcare & social assistance industry has comprehensively driven the nation’s jobs growth over the pandemic, while the manufacturing industry continues to shed jobs. Australia added 113,600 jobs in the May quarter, led by wholesale trade (+43,700), with Education (-30,900) and manufacturing
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Friday’s $2.25B Bitcoin options expiry might prove that $17.6K wasn’t BTC’s bottom – Around the Globe Bitcoin likely set up for ‘mean reversion’ soon, hints Lead Insights Analyst – Around the Globe Musk says Tesla’s new car factories ‘losing billions of dollars’ – Reuters Valkyrie Investments CEO: We’re firmly
This week’s Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Survey recorded the lowest New Zealand consumer confidence reading in records dating back to the late 1980s. As shown in the next chart, the consumer confidence index has historically been a good leading indicator for economic growth, which suggests that New Zealand’s economy is headed for recession: This
CoreLogic has released its final auction results for last weekend, which recorded a national clearance rate of only 55.2%: As shown above, auction clearances have tanked everywhere except Adelaide. Sydney continues to lead the nation lower with its clearance rate of 52.7% being the lowest since April 2020 during the first national COVID lockdown. Melbourne’s
The Albanese Government has wasted no time in replacing Coalition-linked senior public servants and department heads. The Saturday Paper’s Post summarised the changes as follows: Diplomat Jan Adams, Australia’s ambassador to Japan, and former ambassador for climate change under the Rudd government, will replace Kathryn Campbell as Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary (The
Earlier this month, the NSW Perrottet Government announced that it will subsidise residents to travel on Transurban’s private toll road network: About half a million NSW motorists will receive cash rebates paid quarterly into their bank accounts under the NSW Government’s Toll Rebate Scheme to be included in this month’s Budget… “This new program will
Of all the idiotic ‘awards’ handed out, The Economist’s ‘Most Livable City’ must surely rank near the top. Nevertheless, Australian cities continue to plunge down the rankings: The Austrian capital, Vienna, topped the rankings for the first time since 2019, with Melbourne in 10th spot — the highest-ranked Australian city — and tied with Osaka.
The ABC has done an interesting report on Australians that took out fixed rate mortgages over the pandemic and are now fearful that their repayments will balloon once their loan terms expire: Ms Ibrahim and her partner took on a home loan of more than $1.5 million in Sydney, with a deposit of 10 per
A new study by public policy consultants SGS Economics and Planning warns that an acute shortage of affordable housing amid decades of under-investment and rising population growth (read immigration) is set to cost taxpayers $25 billion a year if nothing is done: Social housing – a catch-all phrase covering public housing and other forms of
Despite housing rents surging across Australia over the pandemic: It has become increasingly cheaper to rent than buy, according to the latest PropTrack Buy or Rent Report: It is cheaper to buy than rent around 27% of homes across Australia. This is down sharply from this time a year ago, when this figure was just
The latest futures market forecast has the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiking the official cash rate (OCR) to 3.5% by the end of this year before hitting 4.1% by May 2023: If the market’s projection proved correct, this would lift Australia’s average discount variable mortgage rate to around 7.5% – more than double the
Global Macro / Market / Investing: Bitcoin Suisse Director says crypto market is forming a bottom – Valkyrie Cryptofunds Goldman Warns US Recession Risk Now Higher and More Front-Loaded – Bloomberg Stock Market Jumps After S&P 500’s Worst Week in Two Years – WSJ Skyrocketing Rent Is Driving Inflation – Prospect Inflation is a worldwide
Earlier today I lashed Reserve Bank Governor Phil Lowe for demanding wage suppression to tame inflation while Australian businesses are busy charging higher prices and earning record profits: Secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU), Sally McManus, has launched a similarly scathing attack on Twitter, asking why economists and Phil Lowe haven’t called
Economist Tony Alexander has released a new survey of mortgage advisers, which finds that both first home buyers and investors continue to pull back from New Zealand’s housing market: A net 12% of our respondents this month have reported that they are seeing fewer first home buyers looking for finance. This is essentially the same
Throughout the pandemic, we watched Australia’s universities cry poor over the loss of international students only to then watch as many posted record surpluses. Now the University of Melbourne has joined the fold, posting a bumper surplus of $147 million for 2021 – its best result in five years. However, it continues to cry poor
Roy Morgan’s latest polling has the Albanese Government leading the Coalition (L-NP) by 6% on a two party preferred basis. This is an increase on last month’s Federal Election result, where the ALP won 52% to the L-NP’s 48%. However, Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Index has fallen for three consecutive weeks amid rising concerns around
After spending years complaining of low wage growth, RBA governor Phil Lowe yesterday warned of the need for wage restraint, arguing that 5% pay rises could see high inflation become entrenched. Lowe instead wants to see real wages continue to fall with wage increases of around 3.5%: “It’s good to start with a three,” Lowe
Roy Morgan has modelled the direct impact of the existing 0.75% lift in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in May and June on Australian mortgage holders, as well as the expected interest rate increases of 0.5% during each of the next two months. The interest rate increases already made by the RBA mean that 18.3%
