As 2019 comes to a close, the Australian economy is giving mixed messages. On the one hand, the domestic economy is slowing fast, with the private sector in recession and the economy held up largely by government spending. Household incomes continue to stagnate. In response consumers are closing their wallets with retail sales volumes and
In MB’s Half-Year special report, entitled “Can ScoMo’s miracle save housing and the economy?”, we forecast a modest house price recovery for Australia into 2020. Over the past quarter, however, the housing market has strengthened more quickly than we anticipated, with some commentators even declaring “the great Aussie housing boom is back”. This report reassesses Australia’s
In MB’s 2018 Christmas special report, entitled “The Great Australian Housing Crash”, we anticipated a “strong probability” of a housing “crash” for Sydney and Melbourne, loosely defined as a peak-to-trough decline in values equal to or greater than 20%. However, we noted that this outcome would “hinge on Labor following through with its commitment to
In MB’s 2017 Christmas special report, entitled “The Great Housing Reckoning”, we anticipated a difficult 2018 for Australians with “an intensification of the per capita income recession that is the essence of the nation’s budding lost decade”. While this view was largely correct, we also argued that “house prices… are unlikely to crash”, instead forecasting
Queen Lucy Turnbull of Sydney recently launched the “three cities” vision for her kingdom which has gotten certain financial sector interests excited. From Westpac [our emphasis]: Designing Sydney around three economic hubs presents a substantial urban planning challenge, but the future benefits in productivity gains and liveability are predicted to be profound. Sydney is renowned
It is amazing to watch. We noted recently how it is now Australia’s young turk economic commentators that are now at the forefront of defending mass immigration despite it smashing the prospects of their own generation via crazy house prices, lower wages and crush-loading of the built and natural environments. The big five include: “Racism”
In MB’s 2015 Christmas special report, we forecast that 2017 would be “Judgement Day” for the Australian economy, due to four shocks: a continued global shakeout in commodity prices; a continued unwinding of the mining investment boom; falling housing construction and prices; and the closure of the Australian car manufacturing industry. As it turned out,
Merry Christmas MB readers and thank you for another interesting year. Here’s our schedule over the Christmas break and January 2018: Mon 25th Dec – 2nd January links only. Tues 3rd January to 5th January full posting by Chris Becker with support from Damien Klassen. Mon 8th January to 12th January full posting by Leith
In last year’s Christmas special report, MB forecast four shocks for the Australian economy in 2016, namely: the continued global shakeout in commodity prices; the continued unwinding of the mining investment boom; falling housing construction and prices, which we forecast would commence from mid-2016; and the closure of the Australian car manufacturing industry – which
Merry Christmas MB readers. Here’s our schedule over the break: 24th Dec – 1st January links only with Chris Becker 2nd Jan – 15th Jan full posting by Chris Becker with support from Damien Klassen 16th Jan – 29th full posting with Leith van Onselen and CB with support from DK 30th Jan normal transmission resumes
By Gerard Minack from Minack Advisors Australia’s slow slump in national income hasn’t yet overwhelmed policy makers, but that seems a growing risk. The RBA now has one less bullet in its depleted holster; fiscal policy hasn’t been reloaded since the GFC fusillade; and the Chinese cavalry isn’t likely to arrive this time. Recession remains
Last week we mentioned that chief economist at the CBA Michael Blythe had penned a really awful housing bubble defense (no doubt aimed at debunking the recent Variant Percepation report) and today we offer a special report giving it the full treatment. Can we just take look at the longer term chart: Or the Sydney and Melbourne
After 24 years without an official recession, the Australian economy faces its sternest test in 2016-17. What is most apparent about the outlook for next year and beyond is the number of deleterious ‘known knowns’ and ‘known unknowns’, let alone ‘unknown unknowns’. The first of these known shocks – the unwinding of the biggest mining
The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) has been released, and as expected it stinks. The key Budget outcomes are shown in the below table, which shows the aggregates against the May Budget. As you can see, there has been a sharp deterioration in the Budget over the forward estimates: As shown above, the forecast
Cross-posted from The Conversation: Why we need to listen to the real experts in science by Michael Clarke, Professor of Zoology at La Trobe University and Susan Lawler, Head of Department, Department of Environmental Management & Ecology at La Trobe University If we want to use scientific thinking to solve problems, we need people to appreciate
Dear readers, all of us here at MacroBusiness wish you a prosperous and exciting 2015! We would like to thank you again for a successful 2014. As is customary at this time of year, MB’s two main bloggers – David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen – will be taking a much needed break, and MB
Dear readers Thank you for a successful 2014. As is customary at this time of year, MB’s two main bloggers – David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen – will be taking a much needed break, and MB will operate on a reduced timetable. The timetable for the coming month is as follows: Daily links and
By Gerard Minack, founder of Minack Advisors Australia’s once in a century commodity boom is (unsurprisingly) reversing. There is a serious risk – say, a 40% chance – that Australia has a recession in 2015. Recession would become my base case if leading indicators of employment deteriorate. Under almost any scenario the outlook is for
Welcome to MB’s penultimate special report for 2014. It is for paid subscribers (not trialees) so get yourself a sub today and Merry Christmas! ——————————————————- Six years on from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the global business cycle is slowly putting some distance between itself and a brush with depression. Europe has stabilised at low levels
From all the team at Macro Associates, Happy New Year ! 2013 was a huge year for Macro Business with amazing growth and , with our reader’s support, we hope to do more of the same in 2014. Thank you again to everyone who continues support us, particularly our subscribing members. We have some big
Global Macro/Markets: Energy prices shouldn’t be rising, but traders keep pushing them higher – Quartz Explaining the bond market selloff: Traders versus economists – The Economist A Peek at Trucking Data, and Then the Stock Surged – WSJ Bernanke: Still day trading the economy and stocks love it – Upside Trader Avoiding the Resource Curse: How
Global Macro/Markets: Warren Mosler, a Deficit Lover With a Following – NYT , and further reading Government debt, inflation and money – Mainly macro More on long term returns – Buttonwood Basel plans to toughen up ‘shadow bank’ capital rule – Reuters Basel says how banks add up risks may need reform – Reuters, our own Deep
Macrobusiness Industries presents the new Spruikbot Telephunken U-47.
Global Macro/Markets: Profits without production Krugman Bond market sell-off causes stress in $2tn ETF industry – FT Macroprudential Monetary Policy: What It Is, How it Works – Conversable Economist Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering – Calculated Risk Bernanke Jumps the Gun, Markets Say ‘Slow Down’ – realclearmarkets.com The EM “sell off” chart
Global Macro/Markets: Brazil losing reserves fast as speculators attack real Ambrose Evans-Pritchard A foolproof Approach to Monetary Policy For Both Fiscalists and Monetarists – Macro and Other Market Musings FX Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Libor Review – Bloomberg What is “neoclassical” economics? – Noahpinion Is cash finally now an underinvested asset class? – Minyanville The next wave of
Cross-posted from “The Flying PhD“, written by Dr Andrew Weatherall who in addition to researching traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an anaesthetist at The Children’s Hospital at Westmead and works part-time at Careflight. There was a period of time where I only used the name Bill Gates thus: “F#@$ing Bill Gates! Bloody Microsoft hunk of junk!” The
The interaction stakes climb up a notch again: after launching a forum recently, introducing podcasts (click here for the latest feed) this week also saw the launch of MacroBusiness TV, with an exclusive interview with Professor Ross Garnaut: Rounding this out, we’ve also launched the official subreddit of MacroBusiness, err, on reddit – click here
Find below or from our dedicated podcast feed (click the purple icon in the “Follow Us” sidebar to subscribe) a new podcast with Leith van Onselen and Gunnmatta examining recent released tax statistics covering the use of negative gearing in the Australian property market. The discussion is drawn from a much more comprehensive report available
Following from Houses and Holes podcast yesterday on his views before the RBA rates meeting, here is Chris Becker A.K.A The Prince, our resident trader talking with Gunnamatta about trading and beginning in the markets.
Global Macro/Markets: The Long Mystery of Low Interest Rates by Kenneth Rogoff – Project Syndicate North America: Yellen: Fed should focus on jobs, even if inflation edges past target – Reuters As Hedge Funds Thrive on Mortgages, the House Party Is Far from Over – Institutional Investor Only a Tiny Percentage of Americans Opposed to
