MacroBusiness

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MB over the Xmas break

Merry Christmas MB readers. Here’s our schedule over the break: 24th Dec – 1st January links only with Chris Becker 2nd Jan – 15th Jan full posting by Chris Becker with support from Damien Klassen 16th Jan – 29th full posting with Leith van Onselen and CB with support from DK 30th Jan normal transmission resumes

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MYEFO stinks it up, again

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) has been released, and as expected it stinks. The key Budget outcomes are shown in the below table, which shows the aggregates against the May Budget. As you can see, there has been a sharp deterioration in the Budget over the forward estimates: As shown above, the forecast

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Weekend Musing: Not all opinions are equal

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Why we need to listen to the real experts in science by Michael Clarke, Professor of Zoology at La Trobe University and Susan Lawler, Head of Department, Department of Environmental Management & Ecology at La Trobe University If we want to use scientific thinking to solve problems, we need people to appreciate

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Happy New Year!

Dear readers, all of us here at MacroBusiness wish you a prosperous and exciting 2015! We would like to thank you again for a successful 2014. As is customary at this time of year, MB’s two main bloggers – David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen – will be taking a much needed break, and MB

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Holiday housekeeping

Dear readers Thank you for a successful 2014. As is customary at this time of year, MB’s two main bloggers – David Llewellyn-Smith and Leith van Onselen – will be taking a much needed break, and MB will operate on a reduced timetable. The timetable for the coming month is as follows: Daily links and

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Gerard Minack on why in 2015, Australia runs out of luck

By Gerard Minack, founder of Minack Advisors Australia’s once in a century commodity boom is (unsurprisingly) reversing. There is a serious risk – say, a 40% chance – that Australia has a recession in 2015. Recession would become my base case if leading indicators of employment deteriorate. Under almost any scenario the outlook is for

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Happy New Year

From all the team at Macro Associates, Happy New Year ! 2013 was a huge year for Macro Business with amazing growth and , with our reader’s support, we hope to do more of the same in 2014. Thank you again to everyone who continues support us, particularly our subscribing members. We have some big

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Weekend Links July 13-14

Global Macro/Markets: Energy prices shouldn’t be rising, but traders keep pushing them higher – Quartz Explaining the bond market selloff: Traders versus economists – The Economist A Peek at Trucking Data, and Then the Stock Surged – WSJ Bernanke: Still day trading the economy and stocks love it – Upside Trader Avoiding the Resource Curse: How

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Weekend Links July 6-7

Global Macro/Markets: Warren Mosler, a Deficit Lover With a Following – NYT , and further reading Government debt, inflation and money – Mainly macro More on long term returns – Buttonwood Basel plans to toughen up ‘shadow bank’ capital rule – Reuters Basel says how banks add up risks may need reform – Reuters,  our own Deep

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Weekend Links June 22-23

Global Macro/Markets: Profits without production Krugman Bond market sell-off causes stress in $2tn ETF industry – FT Macroprudential Monetary Policy: What It Is, How it Works – Conversable Economist  Four Charts to Track Timing for QE3 Tapering – Calculated Risk Bernanke Jumps the Gun, Markets Say ‘Slow Down’ – realclearmarkets.com The EM “sell off” chart

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Weekend links June 15-16

  Global Macro/Markets: Brazil losing reserves fast as speculators attack real Ambrose Evans-Pritchard A foolproof Approach to Monetary Policy For Both Fiscalists and Monetarists – Macro and Other Market Musings FX Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Libor Review – Bloomberg What is “neoclassical” economics? – Noahpinion Is cash finally now an underinvested asset class?  – Minyanville The next wave of

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Bill Gates shows where the deep pockets are

Cross-posted from “The Flying PhD“, written by Dr Andrew Weatherall who in addition to researching traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an anaesthetist at The Children’s Hospital at Westmead and works part-time at Careflight. There was a period of time where I only used the name Bill Gates thus: “F#@$ing Bill Gates! Bloody Microsoft hunk of junk!” The

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Comment of the Week, MBTV and Reddit

The interaction stakes climb up a notch again: after launching a forum recently, introducing podcasts (click here for the latest feed)  this week also saw the launch of MacroBusiness TV, with an exclusive interview with Professor Ross Garnaut: Rounding this out, we’ve also launched the official subreddit of MacroBusiness, err, on reddit – click here

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MB Radio: The rise and rise of negative gearing

Find below or from our dedicated podcast feed (click the purple icon in the “Follow Us” sidebar to subscribe) a new podcast with Leith van Onselen and Gunnmatta examining recent released tax statistics covering the use of negative gearing in the Australian property market. The discussion is drawn from a much more comprehensive report available

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Weekend links 6&7 April 2013

Global Macro/Markets: The Long Mystery of Low Interest Rates by Kenneth Rogoff – Project Syndicate North America: Yellen: Fed should focus on jobs, even if inflation edges past target – Reuters As Hedge Funds Thrive on Mortgages, the House Party Is Far from Over – Institutional Investor Only a Tiny Percentage of Americans Opposed to

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Weekend Links 16-17 March 2013

Global Macro/Markets: The stock market and economy are two very different animals – Abnormal Returns A new era for gold? – Financial Times BRICs Abandoned by Locals as Fund Outflows Reach 1996 High – Bloomberg No ‘Irrational Exuberance’ in Stocks Now: Greenspan – CNBC North America: 2013 Economic Report of the President – whitehouse.gov Ten

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Links 12 March 2013

Global Macro/Markets: “The [US] Stock Market Is Looking Like 2000 And 2007 All Over Again” – Comstockfunds.com  Is the commodity sell-off overdone? – FT Alphaville North America: Canadian house prices to keep growing – TD Bank Canadian brokers seek mortgage break for first-time home buyers – The Globe & Mail Canadian Real Estate Association report

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Links 11 March 2013

Global Macro/Markets: Yes the Financial System Is Rigged, but why not profit from it? – Business Week Jim Rogers: We’re Wiping Out The Savings Class Globally, To Terrible Consequence – Peak Prosperity Another step towards an East-West trade war – The Telegraph The IMF on the Austerity Trap – New York Times Investing: Growth and