The drums of war are surrounding Taiwan. Much of it is still the kind of Cold War jousting one would expect yet its tenor is pretty intense: China launched 25 military jets into Tawainese airspace yesterday after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned it for being “increasingly aggressive”. It is the largest incursion in a
In mid-2018, the US declared the China American Cold War a go. It comprised a series of ratcheting trade tariffs by the Trump Administration directed at China. these were directed largely at shifting global manufacturing supply chains, especially in technology, away from China. The measures were directed specifically at China’s stated aim of dominating global technology, artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025.
Other dimensions of the growing Great Power conflict included freedom of navigation through the South China Sea where China had constructed series of far-flung militarised atolls that armed the distant approaches to its mainland and effectively claimed that ocean as sovereign Chinese.
The Cold War was also concentrated around Chinese ‘sharp power’ which had made significant inroads in influencing policy outcomes within the US alliance network in and around the Asia Pacific via bribes, debt diplomacy and corruption of media.
The China American Cold War showed all of the characteristics of an historic, ideological struggle between liberal democracy and statist growth that had defined the 20th century battle between the US and the Soviet Union.
There have not been many who have dared make the comparison between CCP China and Nazi Germany. Both are fascist states governed economically by central planning. Both rely upon ethnic eugenics for political legitimacy. Both are incrementally expansionist to attack competing liberal democracies. Both use powerful economies to buy off and silence opponents. Both are
An open letter from a global coalition of eminent global scientists: Reaction to the China-WHO joint study team report CoV-2 origin hypotheses.”Having read the report entitled‘WHO-convenedGlobalStudy of Origins of SARS-CoV-2: China part’ and reviewed the statements made in the March 30, 2021 WHO-organized press event announcing the report’s release, we have regrettably concluded that our
With crisis comes opportunity. The Morrison Government’s collapsed vaccination program is a big one. Solutions are being posed: Chief Health Officer says the Government is mulling a deal with Moderna. Domain is calling on the Government to cough up big to get more Pfizer. Recalling that Israel secured its early advantage by paying double. I
Precisely as forecast at MB, China’s trade war on Australia is really upon itself. Commodities are fungible and will always be shipped no matter what China does. It can preference its suppliers but cannot withdraw its demand from global markets so we will fill the supply gaps created by it shifting procurement elsewhere. New charts
Ah Labor, the CCP’s favoured party Downunder: Shadow foreign affairs minister Penny Wong has succeeded in preventing the Labor policy platform from condemning Chinese “genocide” in Xinjiang. Labor has instead condemned the CCP for crushing Uyghers as “not the actions of a responsible global power”. The excellent Kimberly Kitching did manage to inject the value
Last week historian Niall Ferguson published an alarming article, both in its scope and in its depressing errors: A Taiwan conflict could be the equivalent of the Suez crisis for the British Empire when it was exposed as a paper tiger. When Britain failed to take it back there was a run on the pound.
I have been pretty sanguine about this to date. But some of the activity by the Chinese military is pretty out there in terms of regular Cold War “buzzing“: 20 Chinese aircraft violated Taiwanese airspace over the weekend. A Taiwanese source said that it was simulated an attack on US warships. The US is getting
The daily insults visited upon Australia from China are not even worth covering these days. The muckraking is typical of a paranoid communist regime with a glass jaw. It is obviously counter-productive to its Australian interests but that’s how these bullying regimes work. As Australia’s Ambassador to China, Graham Fletcher, says today: China has lost
As the Chinese illberal empire pushed outwards towards invading Taiwan, the pushback from the American liberal empire has been intensifying. First via Donald Trump’s unilateralism and now via the Biden Administration’s multilateral version. The latter is much more dangerous for the CCP long term because it brings to bear many more markets for pressure. It
After twenty years of believing in Chinese liberalisation, or at least giving it the benefit of the doubt, the US left has realised that much of it was bull. Via the FT: The Alaska summit was acrimonious. The US attacked China for violating the rules-based order in HK, Xinjiang Taiwan and Australia. China attacked the
Malcolm Turnbull penned an excellent piece in the Nikkei yesterday on the history of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad’ as it is known. It is the developing security mechanism that brings together India, Japan, US and Australia, four Indo-Pacific democracies: The Quad was the initiative of Shinzo Abe in 2007. It engaged in one
Amid the inane babble and pained cries of the pro-China lobby, MB has always had a clear-eyed view of the future of the US in the Pacific. US strategic titan, Walter Russel Mead summed it up well yesterday: US engagement in the Indo-Pacific is long and deep. Since the Louisiana Purchase, America has engaged a
The Quad is a long-term geo-political entity that includes four Indo-Pacific democracies in the US, Japan. India and Australia. It has never done a great deal but its time may have come. The FT is reporting: President Joe Biden is preparing to host A Quad Summit with all four leaders. The summit will be virtual.
Via News: Australian National University academics Natasha Kassam and Darren Lim have peered into a metaphorical crystal ball to map out Australia’s likely future under a new world order. It’s a world where the United States comes a distant second in the superpower stakes. China’s economy is triple its size. Its military is vastly superior
One can view Australia’s economic relationship with China as evolving in two distinct phases. The first phase transpired from 2003 to 2011 and focused mostly on commodity exports. The second phase began as the first went bust and activity shifted to services exports, people flows and investment. With that second wave came unwanted influences such
There is a country without official recognition to whom it is time we gave diplomatic credentials. Antiameristan has a small population in Ultimo, Sydney. But its views and identity are strongly formed enough to merit full sovereignty. The nation of Antiameristan takes its name from its lifetime dictator, Stan Grant, who appeared at the ABC
Following last year’s 14 conditions to end democracy if we want to get along with China, The Australian reports today that China’s Victorian consul-general Long Zhou is out to remind us that there is coming back without that: “Australia should treat China and China’s development objectively and rationally, abandon ideological prejudices, and truly uphold the
The FT ran a story last night to stoke a bit of fear. China is apparently ruminating about banning rare-earth commodities for export: China is exploring whether it can hurt US defence contractors by limiting the export of rare earth minerals that are crucial for the manufacture of F-35 fighter jets and other sophisticated weaponry,
The Anglosphere is at war with the CCP: In an apparent tit for tat move, BBC World News has been banned from airing in China, according to a statement from China’s National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) on Thursday. The announcement comes one week after Ofcom, the British media regulator, said it had withdrawn a
We all know that China is doing its very best to muddy the waters around the derivation of COVID-19. At various times it has blamed bats, wet markets, the US military and frozen foods. The WHO was recently allowed some access to Wuhan finally to investigate. The results were inconclusive to say the least which
I have very little time for China Matters. It generally produces the kind of “diplomatic” claptrap that is barely disguised CCP kowtowing. But today its principal, Linda Jacobsen, has produced a credible paper on the Taiwan conflict that is worthy of discussion: How often over the past decades have we been warned that the Taiwan
Fungible is the word. Via the AFR: ANZ’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said there was clear evidence that Australian coal had found other homes. “We are just starting to get data from various sources showing that all the numbers for thermal and metallurgical coal are holding up,” Mr Hynes said. “Commodity markets are a
Australia’s war with the CCP deepens today, at The Australian: A Chinese company says it wants to build a new $39bn city with a major seaport, industrial area and free-trade zone on Papua New Guinea’s south coast, just kilometres from Australian territory. The “New Daru City” proposal will escalate concerns within Australian security agencies over
Via the always good for a laugh Global Times: Clouded by a deteriorating China-Australia relationship, Australian trade has gone through a year of ebb and flow, which needs objective and rational analysis instead of jumping to conclusions based on one final numerical trade balance. Held up by resilient iron ore export and its surging prices,
I have noted many times how, strangely, it is often Beijing that acts in the Australian national interest versus Canberra. Prominent examples of this include cutting off the flow of Chinese capital into runaway house prices in 2016, overplaying it’s hand with bribery scandals in 2017 and the recent trade divorce based upon incompatible political
The cavalcade of China apologists continues to grow today. At Domain we have this: Australia’s former top diplomat says the government needs to approach China with “more nuance” and be wary of being drawn into a United States policy of confrontation with Beijing. Philip Flood, secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade between
The blunders just keep piling up for the dictator. Having already spiked higher Australia’s terms of trade with his trade war on himself, now the problem is food. Via the anti-Australian rabble at SCMP: Despite warnings that Chinese authorities might block Australian wheat amid an escalating political row, wheat exports to China surged last month,
From Albo last week: ALBANESE: I wrote to the Prime Minister last week suggesting that he engage with former Prime Ministers Rudd and Howard, both of whom have significant relationships with China and as well, of course, Kevin Rudd has significant relationships with the incoming Biden Administration as well. It’s very clear that when Australian jobs
Via Morgan Stanley: Increasing noise on possible policy reversal: Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported yesterday that the Chinese government was in the preliminary stages of lifting its informal ban on Australian coal imports, but that such a move would still need to be approved by senior leaders. There has been no official comment on the article.