Via Bloomie: The U.S. is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports while Beijing and Washington prepare to resume trade negotiations, people familiar with the plans said. …The U.S. won’t accept any further conditions on tariffs as part of reopening negotiations and no detailed trade deal
In mid-2018, the US declared the China American Cold War a go. It comprised a series of ratcheting trade tariffs by the Trump Administration directed at China. these were directed largely at shifting global manufacturing supply chains, especially in technology, away from China. The measures were directed specifically at China’s stated aim of dominating global technology, artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025.
Other dimensions of the growing Great Power conflict included freedom of navigation through the South China Sea where China had constructed series of far-flung militarised atolls that armed the distant approaches to its mainland and effectively claimed that ocean as sovereign Chinese.
The Cold War was also concentrated around Chinese ‘sharp power’ which had made significant inroads in influencing policy outcomes within the US alliance network in and around the Asia Pacific via bribes, debt diplomacy and corruption of media.
The China American Cold War showed all of the characteristics of an historic, ideological struggle between liberal democracy and statist growth that had defined the 20th century battle between the US and the Soviet Union.
Via the AFR comes one of the legends of strategic policy in Australia, Hugh White: China’s bid for regional hegemony poses the most momentous strategic challenge America has faced in Asia since at least the Vietnam War, if not the Second World War. And yet Australia, as its closest ally in Asia, is declining to
Via Nouriel Roubini: The nascent Sino-American cold war is the key source of uncertainty in today’s global economy. How the conflict plays out will affect consumer and asset markets of all kinds, as well as the trajectory of inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal conditions around the world. Escalation of the tensions between the world’s two
Via Peter Jennings at ASPI: The United States is rapidly restructuring its military presence in Asia and rethinking how it could fight a major conventional war in the area which the Pentagon has identified as the ‘single most consequential region for America’s future’. This will have important strategic consequences for Australia. The Indo-Pacific strategy report released this
Via FTAlphaville: The pace at which China is selling its holdings of US Treasuries has accelerated dramatically since the beginning of 2018. Against the backdrop of the escalating US-China trade war and other protectionist measures, the move has sparked concerns that China is actively weaponising its position as the largest foreign creditor to the US government. The fear is
Via Goldman comes the market for anything: Given the assumption that the observed datapoints are normally distributed, barometer readings can be seen as the market-implied probability for a “trade deal” if one believes the historical highs (Jan 19) or lows (Mar 18) over the past 18 months are in fact reasonable representations of those outcomes.
Via John Hewson today: Our positions on China virtually blow in the wind. It seems we simply hope to muddle through, rather than to develop and respond in terms of a well thought out and defined longer-term strategy on our relations with China. This, in itself, undermines our credibility in Chinese eyes, a nation that
Via Chris Uhlmann comes a rare voice of sanity: What is it that terrifies the people of Hong Kong about the Chinese Communist Party that eludes so many pliant Australian academics, business leaders and ex-politicians? In the same breath, some local cognoscenti lament the Australian government’s weakness in barely mentioning the troubles in the Chinese
The Communist Party of China has turned deeply irrational. We’ve seen it paint itself into a corner on a trade deal, massively overreach in Hong Kong and now it is readying to push the trade war into commodities. Via Zero Hedge: During a Monday press conference, the Chinese NDRC said it was developing new state
The gloves are off now. All UBS said was: But that’s the end of a big bond deal with China Railway Construction Corporation because, well, just because. Via the FT: … cultural sensitivity is important for any multinational. But it is an absurdity to translate an innocent English phrase in a certain way and then
Last week I finally got around to watching Pine Gap, the ABC’s excellent geopolitical drama series. It is a terrific primer on the facility, as well as Australia’s position in the melting down relationship between the US and China. But it is also a terrible failure. After six episodes (spoiler alert), it culminates in a
What a pack of treasonous arseholes Labor are. Via The Australian: Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says he is “very proud” to have signed his state up to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative on trade and investment, despite his West Australian Labor counterpart, Mark McGowan, this week rejecting China’s push for his state
Good on Barnaby Joyce for debating the implications of Hong Kong for Australia at Domain: In its entire post-First Fleet history, Australia has not had to contend with the larger intercontinental political issues in isolation from its cultural and philosophical alliances. We’ve always had a larger, stronger partner. In the future we may have our
Via Bloomie: Alphabet Inc.’s Google is moving some production of Nest thermostats and server hardware out of China, avoiding punitive U.S. tariffs and an increasingly hostile government in Beijing, according to people familiar with the matter. Google has already shifted much of its production of U.S.-bound motherboards to Taiwan, averting a 25% tariff, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing
Via The Telegraph: The Chinese tech giant Huawei was compared to the company that produced the lethal gas for Nazi extermination camps, as one of its executives was probed by MPs. John Suffolk, the company’s Global Cyber Security and Privacy Officer, left MP’s frustrated as he was accused of refusing to answer “simple questions” when
On one side is the security agencies and Australian Defence Force on the other is other departments and the Parliament and they are in a fight to do the death. Last week we saw an unprecedented raid on Newscorp after it released secret papers relating to a push by the Australian Signals Directorate (the ADF
Via The Australian: China is pushing for Western Australia to join Victoria in signing up to President Xi Jinping’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative, with a senior official urging the McGowan government to seize the “historical opportunity” of a deal aimed at boosting trade and investment links. Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews broke ranks with federal
Via Domain: China is the key suspect in the theft of huge volumes of highly sensitive personal data from the Australian National University, which intelligence officials now fear could be used to “groom” students as informants before they move into the Australian public service. The hacking, which occurred despite the government’s elite electronic spy agency
Via Herald Sun: Federal police officers are raiding the home of News Corp Australia journalist Annika Smethurst over a story about a secret government plan to spy on Australians. …“The matter relates to an investigation into the alleged unauthorised disclosure of national security information that was referred to the AFP. “Police will allege the unauthorised
Via Martin Wolf at the FT: Across-the-board rivalry with China is becoming an organising principle of US economic, foreign and security policies. …A framing of relations with China as one of zero-sum conflict is emerging. Recent remarks by Kiron Skinner, the US state department’s policy planning director (a job once held by cold war strategist
Just in case you’re tempted to take that China bribe. Meanwhile, at News: The arrival of three Chinese warships into Sydney Harbour yesterday morning came as a huge surprise to most Australians. Their visit was kept so quiet that even the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian wasn’t aware Sydney’s Garden Island would be playing host to
Via Bloomie comes the trade war for teets: A2 Milk Co. led declines among infant-formula providers in Australia and New Zealand after China unveiled a plan to boost local output and reduce reliance on imports. China aims to exceed 60% self-sufficiency for baby formula and improve the quality of domestic brands in its $27 billion
For what it is worth given how wrong it has been on everything surrounding the US economy: New tariffs on all imports from China, some additional non-tariff restrictions, and no deal until late 2019….While there is still a clear possibility that a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit on June 28-29
Via Domain: The Australian government and senior intelligence officials have urged Britain to ban Chinese technology giant Huawei from a role in building new ultra-fast mobile networks, arguing the western alliance of intelligence-sharing partners should have a consistent position. Multiple well-placed sources confirmed Australian officials have taken action on several fronts to impress on their
And they are not nice. Recall the evolving Communist Party of China (CPC) propaganda push outlined by Simon Rabinovitch last week: Add this from the foghorn: China does not want a trade war, but it is not afraid of one and will fight one if necessary. The Chinese government has always adhered to this principle
He’s going off. Via the FT: Donald Trump will threaten to limit intelligence sharing with Britain if the UK government allows Huawei to build part of the country’s 5G mobile network, a message he plans to deliver in person during his visit to London next week. …One White House official said Huawei would “obviously be
Sitting down? Via Interest.con.nz: A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries – namely, the United States – need not worry about the “Thucydides
Via the ABC: Chinese maritime militia vessels are believed responsible for a series of laser attacks on Australian Navy pilots during a recent voyage through the hotly contested South China Sea. Defence sources have confirmed helicopters were targeted during night flights, forcing the pilots to temporarily return to their ship for medical check-ups. The incidents
Business doyen, Alan Kohler, probed the question yesterday: …the Australian Huawei ban was tentative, a bit embarrassed, with Cabinet forced into it by the spooks in the Signals Directorate, but their hearts weren’t in it. And why would they be? China is our main trading partner, and we’re banning their national champion? In stark contrast, the