Chris Becker

7

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Here comes the Fed with more punch to revive this boring party! The NY chief of the Federal Reserve, John Williams, gave a big boost to risk markets overnight by goosing the easing question, sending stocks higher and slamming the USD down against all the undollars. Gold has broken out to a

60

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are again under pressure following the poor lead from Wall Street, but also from a slump in trade figures in Japan, sending Japanese stocks falling as Yen gained against USD. The Aussie dollar has lifted inexorably after a poor unemployment print, dragging the Kiwi along for the ride. The Shanghai Composite gapped

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The US earnings season is putting several headwinds in the way of an ever-rising stock market with US bourses falling overnight in disappointment. European markets fell as well as the prospect of a hard Brexit becomes more likely, with Treasury yields falling again in response. Looking at the action in Asia yesterday

62

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are flat again with only the ASX200 putting in a positive performance as concerns over Trump’s mishandling of the trade war with China rise again. The USD is relatively calm although Pound Sterling remains under pressure with S&P futures flat before tonights open. The Shanghai Composite has been unable to get out

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The US earnings season has had a hiccup as Trump puts his foot in his mouth again with a threat of more tariffs on China, while a missive to start negotiating with the Iranians has seen the oil price drop over 2% as the USD lifted. The latest US retail sales number

46

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are mixed again with the return of Japanese stocks as the USD gains strength against most of the major currencies, particularly Yen, although Kiwi keeps on as its CPI print comes in as expected. The Shanghai Composite continues its slow start to the week, falling 0.2% going into the close, currently at 2934

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The latest US earnings season has started, and while the headline Dow is up, the broader S&P500 is treading water as US interest rates continue to fall. The USD is up against most of the majors, with oil prices abating due to lesser concern about the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico affecting

18

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia are mixed with the lack of trading in Japan because of yet another holiday but also due to the latest Chinese GDP print which showed a slowing trend, but an economy still powering ahead with industrial production and retail sales figures much higher than expected. Bitcoin is having a tough time as

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw US shares advance even further as the prospect of the Fed cutting rates firmed, while the USD lost ground against all the undollars except gold. US Treasury yields rose to a one month high but still unsettled with a much firmer than expected PPI print backing up the recent

87

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia have generally pushed higher following the record highs on Wall Street overnight with the USD still selling off against the undollars as traders readjust to the Fed’s dovish stance. Local stocks are the exception with the fall in iron ore price taking down Rio Tinto and BHP, while Bitcoin is struggling as

72

Deutsche Bank highlights a society at risk

by Chris Becker The HBO series Chernobyl wasn’t about the dangers of nuclear power but rather the ability of societies at large to lie, obfuscate, conceal and pass off individual responsibility to create huge “mistakes”. The collapse of the Soviet Union was due to this cascade of lies, that its economic and social system was

31

Warnings mount over poor US earnings

  by Chris Becker Stock markets are renowned for pricing in promises but failing to deliver on accuracy. With US markets now at record highs, with the Dow Jones breaking through the 27000 point barrier last night as the S&P500 hovers at a near doubling of its GFC low, and a Federal Reserve hell bent

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  A big spike in US interest rates overnight still couldn’t hold back the Dow making a new record high, although the broader S&P500 failed to get over 3000 points again. European stocks continued to wobble while the USD barely moved following the latest core inflation data. Looking at the action in Asia

4

Daily iron ore price update (car sales down)

by Chris Becker The iron ore complex slumped yesterday for the second straight session as falling car sales took the bite out of the supply crunch:   More from Reuters: China is likely to see a further drop in vehicle sales this year compared to expectations for zero growth, the country’s biggest auto industry association

92

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia have pushed higher with the USD sold off against the undollars as traders readjust to the Fed’s dovish stance following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress last night. Gold is soaring above $1400USD per ounce again while the Australian dollar is having another push to get back above 70 US cents. The

2

APRA hit big banks with extra capital charges

by Chris Becker APRA is ordering the remainder of Megabank to hold a little more capital in reserve in case of bad things. From Martin North: APRA has written to ANZ, National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac advising of an increase in their minimum capital requirements of $500 million each. The capital add-ons will apply

8

CS: Value still not lifting as Powell puts the market

Damien Boye at Credit Suisse has his take on the Powell Put overnight: Overnight, Fed Chair Powell delivered the dovishness the market was looking for, but had not fully priced in. He suggested that: Many FOMC members were talking about cutting rates in June. The dip in inflation may not be so transitory, as initially

30

Nuclear weapons muddies a real debate on defence

by Chris Becker The recent public comments by Hugh White, that Australia should “dramatically increase military spending” due to the temporary perceived unreliability of Trump’s Presidency and the strategic risk of a rising China have been muddled due to his additional remarks surrounding a nuclear weapons option. Unfortunately, the nuke angle is now clouding any

1

Oil price spikes as storms gather

by Chris Becker It wasn’t just a dovish Fed boosting all undollar assets overnight as a multitude of storms lashed the crude market, not just rising tensions in the Persian Gulf increased again. From the Telegraph: A British oil tanker is sheltering off the coast of Saudi Arabia amid fears it will be seized by

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  It was an easy night for short USD traders as Fed chief Powell reiterated the central banks dovish stance, sending interest rates and King Dollar down and lifting stock markets and commodities. Oil spiked higher on a greater than expected inventory drawdown while base metals also rallied alongside gold, although Bitcoin took

0

Daily iron ore price update (more, longer)

by Chris Becker The Chinese steel industry is still reeling from its call for inquiry into high iron ore prices, with Dalian and Singapore futures moving higher yesterday as spot prices remain elevated. Forecasts are also being upgraded, happy news for Josh Frydenberg – albeit temporary – with the Jefferies Group revising their own ebullient

54

Macro Afternoon

Stocks in Asia remain unsettled as traders await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress tonight, with some optimism sneaking through particularly locally as the Australian dollar goes lower again. Currency markets are also mixed, with the Euro steady while Pound Sterling is selling off going into the City open, while the Aussie and Kiwi remain under

10

ECB smackdown on Bitcoin

by Chris Becker While Bitcoin launches back over the $13000USD level in the Asian session today, a quick reply on the currency question from the ECB Twitter account smacked down the crypto bulls: Lane: No. Bitcoin is not a currency, it rather is an asset and it is very volatile #AskECB https://t.co/XQ9Mqdm5rU — European Central

13

Can Powell take control of the doves tonight?

by Chris Becker Fed Chairman Powell is testifying before Congress tonight AEDT on the state of the US economy and invariably, markets will hang on his words surrounding further interest rate cuts. At the moment, the probability of a cut at the July meeting remains at 100%, with a 94% chance of being lowered by

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Overnight markets were effectively sidelined by traders waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony with European stocks retreating while US stocks put in some minor gains, led by tech issues on the NASDAQ. Interest rates nudged higher with the 10 year Treasury up to 2.07% as the chance of a rate cut from

1

Daily iron ore price update (Baltic up)

by Chris Becker The iron ore price surged again yesterday, with spot prices up nearly 4% while futures gravitating around the new S&P price forecasts stemming from the Vale supply shortfall.   S&P revised its price assumptions to $90 a tonne for the remainder of 2019 from $75, $80 in 2020 from $70, and $70