Chris Becker

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets remain unsettled after Friday’s fizzer on Wall Street, as the upcoming Biden presidential inaguration later this week is possibly hindering risk taking. Gold and silver had wide trading ranges to start the week while Bitcoin has been falling sharply later this afternoon after it failed to breach the $40,000 level late last

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Macro Morning

Friday night saw risk markets continue their reversal of confidence as Biden gets closer to taking the presidency and a very large – and taxing (sic) – stimulus package comes forth. The latest consumer confidence numbers doubled down on the weak US economy meme following the initial jobless claims surprise, putting pressure on the Fed

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are very unsettled going into the final trading session of the week, with the Biden stimulus plan not landing on the right note for risk takers as higher taxes are definitely on the agenda. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are not pulling back to any new session lows, while Bitcoin

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Macro Morning

Action on risk markets was muted last night due to the release of the latest jobless claims in the US, followed by the post-close Biden stimulus package announcement, with the former unexpectedly nearly hitting the 1 million mark. This has reassessed chances of a taper by the Fed, with bond markets starting to trickle higher

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Daily iron ore price update (record imports)

The iron ore complex settled a little on Thursday, although shorter-term futures pushed higher as restocking demand increased at mills across China. Texture from Reuters on the record levels of imports of iron ore: “(Mills) are currently at pre-holidays restocking period, adding that steel profits are good, there’s a possibility that they will increase purchase

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Links 15 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Trump signs amended China investment ban, requiring complete divestment by Nov. 2021 – Reuters Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII – BBC Moderna CEO says the world will have to live with Covid ‘forever’ – CNBC Bitcoin closes in on $40,000 as bulls flood

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are moving higher almost in unison, with Australian shares lagging but finally putting in a decent bid as Japanese stocks head above new decade highs. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed with both unable to put in new session highs, while Bitcoin continues to hang on above its technical breakout level above

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Daily iron ore price update (steel reductions)

The iron ore complex was still elevated in trading yesterday, but coking coal futures took a dump as spot iron ore remained bid above the $171USD per tonne level: Having run at huge levels through much of last year, Chinese steel inventories have corrected to normal levels: This leaves mills with less scope to manage

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Macro Morning

It was the return of the king last night – king dollar that is – with yet another reversal in USD due to a very solid US inflation report, with core inflation bang on target while year on year inflation actually ticked higher than expected. This saw a selloff in the majors while the usual

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Links 14 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Oil prices rise to near 1-year highs as vaccines, stimulus and Saudi Arabian production cuts lift the energy outlook – Business Insider Benchmark LNG cargo prices soar 18-fold in less than nine months, outperforming other commodities – Bloomberg COVID herd immunity will not happen in 2021, says WHO –

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are quite mixed with a big inversion in direction today as Japanese stocks rallied, Chinese bourses dropped while the ASX200 did 2/5ths of nothing again.  Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are putting in mild upswings in the short term, while Bitcoin is at a key technical point here, ready to

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PBOC strengthens yuan as China goes into lockdown

The PBOC has been strengthening Yuan against USD throughout 2020 and that trend is not stopping in the new year, with the latest onshore fix set at 6.4605, a big drop down from yesterday’s 6.4823 as offshore trading (USDCNH) gets below the 6.45 level. The weekly chart shows the strength of this trend with the

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Macro Morning

Last night saw a solid reversal in USD, blamed in part on the Fed with several speeches by Federal Reserve officials overnight putting a hawkish bent on their position in 2021. Furthermore, US Treasury yields fell back on some soft auctions with bond markets starting to broadcast further volatility ahead. Oil prices lifted again alongside

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Daily iron ore price update (restocking blues)

Winter restocking in China has disrupted steel prices across the iron ore complex with rebar futures down more than 3% during Tuesday’s session before slightly recovering, as coking coal also dropped. This hasn’t effected the spot iron ore price, or indeed Dalian futures which are treading water: The fallout from the WA government’s cash grab

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Links 13 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Scientists Warn of an ‘Imminent’ Stratospheric Warming Event Around The North Pole – ScienceAlert Norway to increase carbon tax from $95/tonne to $240/tonne – Upstream The next big risk: Three Wall Street leaders reveal what worries them – Bloomberg Chinese start-up leaks 400GB of scraped data exposing over 200

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Macro Afternoon

Asian markets are still very hesitant to take on more risk with the return of Japanese markets still not providing any catalyst for more upside, except on mainland China. Gold and silver remain somewhat depressed but are finding some life later this afternoon, while Bitcoin is rallying again after dropping down towards the $30,000 handle,

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Macro Morning

Markets restarted the week with volatility, as hopes and fears over stimulus and 2nd Trump impeachment collided with the USD providing the safe haven of choice. Oil prices came off only slightly as a result while other commodities pulled back, but the real news was in “stable next currency to replace everything” Bitcoin. After breaching

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Links 12 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: U.S. Capitol siege a ‘wake-up call’ for democracies, top EU diplomat says – Reuters (beware the dangers of populism and nationalism) Boeing to pay $2.5 billion to settle U.S. criminal probe into 737 MAX crashes – Reuters Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan will delist some Hong Kong-traded structured

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a mixed start to the week after absorbing the NFP/US Unemployment print on Friday night, with weekend machinations help push down risk spirits somewhat. This is exemplified in the performance of Bitcoin since it seemingly topped out on Friday night just below the $42000 level and lost nearly $9000 or some

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Chinese consumer inflation picks up at the end of 2020

The latest Chinese inflation data for December has been released with the consumer price index (CPI) rising more than expected, 0.2% instead of a flat result, mainly due to a reversal in food prices. This arrests the decline seen in November, but the impact of COVID-19 is still being felt, with producer inflation (PPI) still

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Daily iron ore price update (port charge slog)

The iron ore complex rose once again Friday, sending spot prices slightly higher while Dalian futures rose over 3%, dragging rebar and coking coal higher as stainless steel futures also lifted: The WA Government has slogged iron ore ship operators in the Pilbara region, trying to extract yet more funds this time in the form

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Macro Morning

Markets ended a tumultous week with some firm moves higher on Friday night in response to the latest US unemployment data, with commodities moving around the most as stocks lifted firmly into new record highs across Wall Street.   Oil prices went into super overbought mode with both Brent and WTI lifting more than 3% higher

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Links 11 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Polar Vortex collapse sequence has now begun, with current forecasts showing a likely increase in colder Winter weather dynamics over the United States and Europe as a response to these large-scale circulation changes. World population likely to shrink after mid-century, forecasting major shifts in global population and economic

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Macro Afternoon

Risk markets are having a wonderful end to the week now that Trump has finally conceded he lost the election (from two months ago). Bitcoin is having a few wobbles but looks set to get higher again tonight, currently at just below $39000 as it continues to have 10% plus volatility intrady. Gold has been

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2020 was Australia’s fourth hottest year on record

The BOM has released its Annual Climate Statement for 2020, headlining the sobering fact that 2020 was the fourth-warmest year on record, with temperature now 1.15 °C above the 1961–1990 average. Senior Climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio, said that: “The mean temperature for the 10 years from 2011 to 2020 was the highest on record, at

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Macro Morning

Stimulus and vaccine hopes are overriding concerns of more market regulation from a Democrat-controlled Congress, as Wall Street surged to big new record highs overnight, overshadowing the political turmoil seen in the Capitol yesterday. Oil prices continued to lift while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high after briefly breaching the $40,000 level,

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Daily iron ore price update (scrap ban lifts)

The iron ore complex surged on Thursday, bringing prices to new highs as demand for iron ore remains high in the Middle Kingdom: Spot prices exceeding $170USD per ton while coking coal and rebar advanced nearly 2%. The lifting of a two year ban on imported scrap steel into China last week are considered “symbolic