Weekend Links July 2-3, 2016

Axiom of Choice II, 1994, Robert Jacks, National Gallery of Victoria

China

• Is China the Next Japan? – Project-Syndicate, Roach
• China’s State-Owned Enterprises at a Crossroads – Project-Syndicate
• China Caixin manufacturing PMI slips in June – Market Watch
• This economist thinks China is headed for a 1929-style depression – Market Watch
• Growth in China’s factory sector stalls, increasing chance of more stimulus measures to boost economy – SCMP
• What next for Chinese yuan after Brexit? ‘Yes’ to devaluation. ‘No’ to capital outflows – SCMP
• Corruption fight set to headline Chinese president’s Communist Party anniversary address – SCMP
• China’s Big Four ready for bad debt challenge – Euromoney
• China factory activity stalls in June, more stimulus expected – Reuters
• China’s Manufacturing Treads Water in June as Services Perk Up – Bloomberg
• No, Graft Isn’t Good for Growth – Bloomberg
• China’s Bad Bank Capital Thirst – Bloomberg
• Chinese Companies Splash US$80 Billion on Nigeria Oil, Gas – Oilprice.com
• Cutting Corporate Debt, One Step at a Time – Caixin
• Policymakers Rush to Slam Brakes on Private Investment Slowdown – Caixin

 Asia

• BOJ may act on lower May CPI, flat business sentiment – CNBC
• As negative yields spread, Asia bond market offers the best returns, analysts say – CNBC
• Japan’s GPIF had portfolio losses of over $50 billion last fiscal year – CNBC
• Singapore bank halts London mortgage lending following Brexit – Telegraph
• Japan’s May consumer prices mark biggest slide in 3 years – Nikkei Asian Review
• Japan’s 2015 land prices rise for 1st time in 8 years: govt survey – Nikkei Asian Review
• Main Tankan reading masks increased business uncertainty – Nikkei Asian Review
• Breakdown: Solving Asia’s other bad debt problem – Reuters
• Bad-Loan Ultimatum in India Sees Default Risk Climb Most in Asia – Bloomberg
• Singapore Home Prices Post Longest Losing Streak on Record – Bloomberg

 Europe

• EU approves Italian contingency plan to guarantee bank liquidity – CNBC
• S&P cuts EU credit rating after Brexit – Business Times
• Sanctions shield protects Russia from Brexit fallout – BNE Intellinews
• Reawakening Europe – Project-Syndicate, Fischer
• Jumpstarting Europe’s Economy – Project-Syndicate
• Google offices in Spain raided in tax investigation – Telegraph
• Standard & Poor’s cuts EU credit rating after British vote to leave – Guardian
• As Britain Faces Uncertainty, Europeans Jockey for London’s Business – NY Times
• Austrian presidential election result overturned and must be held again – Guardian
• Italy’s productivity conundrum: The role of resource misallocation – VoxEU
• Macroeconomics in Germany: The forgotten lesson of Hjalmar Schacht – VoxEU
• Post-Brexit, the Real Risk Is Europe Could Fail – Bloomberg
• Euro zone unemployment falls to lowest level in almost 5 years – CNBC
• The Brexit contagion could consume the French elite next – Brookings
• THE BREXIT POSSIBILITY – Stratechery
• Italy Granted “Extraordinary ” €150BN Bank Bailout Program To Prevent “Panic, Run On Deposits” – Zero Hedge
• The International Dimension of Monetary Policy – ECB, Draghi…reads like a help call to me…
• Economic stimulus is putting profits of Europe’s banks at risk, warns ECB – Telegraph
• Sunday Night Bailout: Italy – Constantin Gurdgiev…he is right, weaker financial systems are under the kosh…

 United Kingdom

• UK may need more stimulus by summer, says Bank of England – CNBC
• How EU Overreach Pushed Britain Out – Project-Syndicate, Feldstein
• Infrastructure projects are vital to our post-Brexit future  – Telegraph
• Brexit has demolished George Osborne’s deficit plan. The next PM will need one of their own – Telegraph
• UK’s ‘second deficit’ threatens household living standards after Brexit – Telegraph
• Brexit: Bank of England says shock has created ‘economic PTSD’ for households and businesses – ABC
• A top British official’s ominous warning has sent the pound back down again – Washington Post
• Unlike politicians, Mark Carney looks to be taking the initiative post-Brexit – Guardian
• Brexit’s Stunning Coup – NY Times, Tony Blair…was Tony playing Banquo’s ghost for many Brexit voters?…
• Has the UK financial system held back UK investment? – VoxEU
• Shifting sands: Britain’s political parties plunge into crises of leadership—and philosophy – Economist
• Brexit: who trades what with the UK? – Bruegel
• UK political elite used poverty & immigration fears to secure leave vote – Bruegel
• Why Scotland shouldn’t bet on easy path back to EU – CNBC
• Brexit: A new ‘manifest crisis’ for UK steel? – Platts…sure is…
• Brexit and the easing of austerity – BBC

 United States

• The most expensive U.S. cities to have a baby – CBS
• Freddie Mac losses may mean further bailouts – Euromoney
• U.S. shale oil’s Achilles heel shows signs of mending – Reuters
• The U.S. Now Ranks 19th in ‘Social Progress,’ With Finland and Canada Topping the List – WSJ
• How Chinese Students Saved America’s Colleges – Bloomberg
• How do people really feel about the economy? – Brookings, Bernanke
• Nearly All U.S. Banks Pass Fed’s Stress Test – NY Times
• Could the U.S. Really Gut Its Trade Deals? – The Atlantic
• A Middle-Class Stronghold’s Uncertain Future – The Atlantic
• A Strong Middle Class Doesn’t Just Happen Naturally – The Atlantic
• Are American Banks Sturdy Enough to Weather Another Financial Crisis? – The Atlantic
• US income gap widened last year as top 1 percent gained most – AP

  Americas

• How Puerto Rico Can Recover – Project-Syndicate
• Suriname: Facing the Storm with a Correction of Course – Economonitor
• Puerto Rico set to register largest default to date – CNBC
• Five Lessons from the Expansion of the Panama Canal – Economonitor
• British Columbia to end self-regulation of real estate industry after damning report – Financial Post
• Canada’s GDP edges up for first time in three months, but growth spurt unlikely to last – Financial Post
• Obama signs law to rescue Puerto Rico’s economy – Washington Post
• Puerto Rico Debt Relief Law Stirs Colonial Resentment – NY Times
• Oil Made Venezuela Rich, And Now It’s Making It Poor – FiveThirtyEight
• Immigrant investment has impact on Vancouver housing market: researchers – Vancouver Sun
• Chinese bank claims fugitive who owes $10M bought four homes in B.C. worth $7.2M – Vancouver Sun
• Acceptance and praise for real estate industry changes – Vancouver Sun

 Terra Electorus

• Win, lose or draw: The many shades of this election – ABC, Barrie Cassidy…nails it for mine…
• Why Gen Y needs to take its vote seriously – ABC
• Australia’s manufacturing sector records longest period of growth in a decade – ABC
• Home prices moderate, but Sydney and Melbourne continue to surge – ABC
• AMP: Investors call to wind up Capital China Fund – ABC
• The dumb way we measure economic management – ABC, Letts…very good read…
• The Australian election is a health hazard – Fairfax
• Youth to foot bill for baby boomer budget incompetency – Fairfax
• Dairy crisis explained: It’s more to do with Vladimir Putin than $1 milk – Fairfax
• The sorry state of returns from superannuation funds this year – Fairfax
• Turnbull government’s $185m nanny scheme pays out just $9000 – Fairfax
• Nick Xenophon ready for the SuperShock of polling day – Fairfax
• Malcolm Turnbull promises nobody will pay more to see the doctor despite rebate freeze – Fairfax
• Brisbane Labor pains: erstwhile ‘progressive hotbed’ looking lukewarm – Guardian…the haunting suspicion the ALParatchiks are frauds…
• How Paul Keating became the modern day hero for left and right alike – Guardian
• Coalition squeezes welfare lemon again – The Conversation
• Shorten struggles as campaign winds down – The Conversation
• WA-xit: history beckons – The Conversation
• Black market jobs cost Australia billions and youth are at the coalface – The Conversation
• Labor’s stimulus package got us through a crisis. Turnbull saying otherwise is silly – Guardian, Jericho
• Aussie farmers worry over fallout of ‘backpacker tax’ – Nikkei Asian Review
• Campaign 2016 is done and dusted: Now, to find out what we were wrong about – The Monthly
• The Risks to Australia’s Economic Miracle – WSJ
• Aussie PM Learns the Hard Way That Politics Is a Very Different Game – Bloomberg
• Australia’s Election Is a Fight for a Future After Mining – Bloomberg…shame neither side pitched any vision about that to us…
• Australian credit growth moderates – Callam Pickering
• We starve the state and public infrastructure development at our peril – Bill Mitchell

 Commodities

• Commodities are crushing it in 2016: Here’s why – Market Watch
• China to cut steel capacity by 45 million tonnes this year: state planner – SCMP
• Global coffee exports down 6.8 pct in May: ICO – Reuters
• Oil falls as oversupply concerns return to center stage – Reuters
• Global oil overhang to choke price recovery well into 2018 – Reuters
• Wheat faces fourth week of decline, lingers near six-year low – Reuters
• Oil Is Still Heading to $10 a Barrel – Bloomberg
• Why Oil Prices Haven’t Peaked Yet This Year – ETF.com
• The Oil World’s Dirty Little Secret – Bloomberg
• Thermal coal futures so bright, you gotta wear shades – Platts
• Biggest diamond in more than century fails to sell – Mineweb
• The One Chart That Shows Why Oil Prices Have To Keep Rising – Oilprice.com
• OPEC Needs 650,000 bpd To Avoid Global Supply Deficit – Oilprice.com
• Can The Natural Gas Rally Continue? – Oilprice.com
• Goldman says China iron imports to drop as old economy fades – Mineweb…now hasn’t HnH been saying that for years?…
• Glencore hails ‘window of opportunity’ for UK wheat exporters – Agrimoney
• Corn futures tumble, wheat hits 9-year low, as US lifts supply hopes – Agrimoney
• Australia milk price woes force ‘negative impact’ on listed dairy group – Agrimoney
• Cotton leads way in Chinese commodity rally – Agrimoney
• Wheat prices fall to 10-year low on abundant supply – Nikkei Asian Review

 Capital Markets

• Why Brexit could land a blow on bonds – CBS
• When a Storm Is in the Offing: Fundamental Growth in the U.S. Equity Market – Research Affiliates
• Brexit let these investors grab a bigger piece of the pie – Market Watch
• Do android bankers dream of electric bonuses? – BNE Intellinews
• Yuan internationalisation likely delayed by euro and pound volatility, says BOCHK economist – SCMP
• China’s yuan drops sharply following media report PBOC prepared to tolerate softer currency – SCMP
• Brexit is perfect illustration of modern corporate complacency – SCMP
• Pound drops as Bank of England’s Mark Carney hints at fresh interest rate cuts – Telegraph
• The negatives of negative rates – Euromoney
• What Currency to Buy After Brexit? Try the Brazilian Real – WSJ…and after the Olympics?…
• Bail-in versus bail-out: The Atlante example from a systemic risk perspective – VoxEU
• Currency valuation and risk premia – VoxEU
• Fighting ‘currency wars’ with blanks: The limited role of exchange rates in export competitiveness – VoxEU
• Credibility of central bank(er)s – VoxEU
• Negative rates and seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down – the special case of the ECB – VoxEU, Gros…good read…
• Why it doesn’t make sense to hold bonds – VoxEU
• No Lehman moment on currency markets after Brexit vote – Bruegel
• Brexit, Europe’s Bear Market, Interest Rates & Gold – Short Side of Long
• European crisis has the potential to spread contagion via Autocalls – ValueWalk

 Global Macro

• The greatest reshuffle of individual incomes since the Industrial Revolution – VoxEU
• IMF says Brexit uncertainty to dampen growth outlook – CNBC
• The early line on Brexit’s economic impact – CBS
• A Trivially Overlooked Brexit Scenario and Its Potential Aftermath in Early 2016 – Economonitor
• Brexit’s Blow To Globalization – Project-Syndicate, Reinhart
• The Anti-Globalization Brexplosion – Project-Syndicate
• Poverty, Inequality, and the GDP: The Economy of Good Jobs – Economonitor
• Football, Brexit, and Us – Project-Syndicate, Hausmann
• Brexit is just the start of a bigger jobs fight – ABC
• After ‘Brexit,’ Finding a New London for the Financial World to Call Home – NY Times
• Why Will Markets Recover From ‘Brexit’? Clues From Past Crises – NY Times
• Bond yields sink as central banks head for easier policy – Reuters
• The impact of trade agreements: New approach, new insights – VoxEU
• Brexit Forces Stretched Central Banks to Do More with Less – Bloomberg, El-Erian
• Kiss Your Domestic Bias Goodbye, Central Bankers of the World – Bloomberg

 …and furthermore…

• In Defense of Germ Line Gene Therapy – Project-Syndicate
• Could a Basic Income Help Poor Countries? – Project-Syndicate
• Shifting Toward the Knowledge Economy – Economonitor
• Retirement is making people more miserable than ever before – Market Watch
• These jobs have the highest rate of suicide – CBS
• Brexit was about making politics democratic again – ABC
• Billed as conservative, but Brexit is radicalism writ large – ABC
• OpenTheBooks Oversight Report – The Militarization Of America – OpenTheBooks…eye raising…
• Thinking outside the box will help avoid the commoditisation trap – SCMP
• Tesla driver using autopilot killed in crash – Washington Post
• What the 1880s tell us about why the rich are moving to cities today – Washington Post
• Neither rigged nor fair: Bosses’ pay in the rich world is not a fix. But it is flawed – Economist
• Credit-Card Companies Know How Little You Know – Bloomberg, Noah Smith
• Here’s What Financial Pundits Mean When They Say… – Bloomberg, Ritholtz
• Regulatory Capture, Ancient and Modern – RegBlog
• Antarctic Ozone Hole Is Showing First Signs Of ‘Healing,’ Scientists Say – IB Times
• When Algorithms Take the Stand – The Atlantic
• Mortgage Application Process – How Prepared Britons Are To Buy A Home – ValueWalk…interesting graphic…
• U.S. Says Sanctions On Russia Caused “Marginal” Damage On EU Economies – Oilprice.com
• Slavery as free trade – Aeon…old reflexes die hard…
• Speaking in tongues – Aeon…good read about bilingualism…
• Behind shrinking middle-class jobs: A surge in outsourcing – LA Times

Choice, 1968, Bea Maddock, Art Gallery of NSW