Weekend sundries 27-28 November 2021

Gavin ‘I managed to dig out footage of Albert Tucker with my grandparents in the 1940s (Paris). I have uploaded the footage to Youtube. My Grandmother is in the dark (black-ish colour coat) and my grandfather is wearing a tie and proper receding hairline with thin moustache. The blonde woman is my grandmothers sister, she


Are bonds going to rise or fall?

Numera captures the prevailing view on Wall Street about the future of bond yields: • Recovery on track: Strong employment and retail sales figures, alongside falling public health risks, reinforce the view that the US recovery remains on track. Equity investments should yield positive returns in 2022, but high valuations and a likely increase in


Macrobusiness Weekend Gardening, Machines, Creepy Crawlies and other sundries – 13-14 November 2021

Boomengineering ‘Half of 3 home workshops. 1st pic, foreground, milling machine Bottom left power Pac ( made every component). Next 100 ton press ( made it all,) Top of press dividing heads. Next small mill drill. Left lathe. 2nd pic  Yellow German bandsaw Left manual drilling machines Background  lathe.’ ‘Flowers outside and in.’    


Weekend Links: 13-14 November 2021

Louis Buvelot, ‘Goodman’s Creek Bacchus Marsh, Victoria’ 1876, Art Gallery of NSW    Macro & Markets What Nutella Teaches Us About Global Supply Chain Risks– Bloomberg Shooting the messenger? Shipping carries the can as investors shun coal – Reuters Carbon superpowers – U.S.-China deal seen as symbolic but not sufficient – Reuters Inflation Is Now


Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are mixed again with Japanese markets surging, Chinese markets retracing and Australian markets doing 2/5ths of nothing. The USD is remaining relatively strong although the Aussie and Kiwi are coming back as the Euro remains flat while gold is holding above the $1800USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin is teetering just above


In defence of Novak Djokovic

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has warned reigning Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic that he won’t be allowed into Melbourne to contest the 2022 tournament unless he is fully vaccinated against COVID: The appearance of the world No.1 at the Australian Open looks certain to rely on him being fully vaccinated after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews


Did the energy bubble just burst?

It may well have, certainly for coal. Thermal coal futures were massacred again yesterday: Coking coal suddenly looks like iron ore: The Chinese intervention into what was stark raving mad market movements did the trick. Here is more texture: China will intervene in high coal prices and will impose severe punishment on those involved in coal


Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets have rebounded after the US inflation led bounce on Wall Street overnight with the reversal in USD strength against the major risk currencies still holding, with gold hovering just below the $1800USD per ounce level. Meanwhile Bitcoin continues its little uptick above the $57K level, as it remains poised to match its


Weekend links: 9-10 October 2021

‘The Creek’ 1925, Arthur Streeton, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro and Markets The power trap: Why the energy crisis is a crisis of politics – New Statesman OPEC+ caution and money behind reluctance to pump more oil-sources – Reuters European gas prices slide back after Putin hints Russia may help “stabilise” the market –


Subsidies juice first home buyer property demand

Data from the National Housing Finance & Investment Corporation (NHFIC) shows that federal government programs have been successful in coaxing first-home buyers (FHBs) into the housing market. NHFIC’s analysis shows that people under the age of 30 account for 58% of participants in the First Home Buyer Lending Deposit Scheme and the New Home Guarantee


ADF deployed to Victoria’s straining hospitals

The past fortnight has seen the number of COVID cases presented at Victoria’s hospitals and ICU departments more than double: To relieve the strain, Australian Defence Force (ADF) personnel have been brought in to help drive ambulances. Triage tents will also be erected outside of Melbourne’s hospitals to help manage patient flow: For the first


Why the MSM betrayed you with ‘fake news’

Auto Expert John Cadogan has unloaded on the Mainstream Media for betraying the public with ‘fake news’: Here’s the money quote: “This subversion of the news happens in the nightly news and the mainstream media more generally. Like Gerry Harvey – huge advertiser, right? He could therefore probably go out and sponsor the fricken Taliban


Links 5 October 2021

Macro & Markets In the ‘Yes, But’ Recovery, Conviction Is a Curse – Bloomberg Clock is ticking: the walls are closing in on the $2.8tr crypto market – Ninefax Central Banks Want to Issue Digital Coins But There’s a Major Trade-Off – Bloomberg Buckle up because global markets are in for a bumpy ride in


Ritualised forms – Jason Falinski and home affordability

Jason Falinski MHR put a piece into our mainstream media this week – about housing affordability. Sometimes we need to think about our political representatives.  And whenever they put something into our mainstream media we should ask about the process which has got it there. Policy priests should tell young Australians the truth about homeownership


Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are trying to bounceback after the sharp selloffs on Wall Street but also the growing economic palava in China with the recent volatile moves in iron ore and Evergrande still dominating changes in sentiment. The USD remains very firm against most of the risk currencies as the Australian dollar again tries in vain


Links 23 September, 2021

Macro & Markets Central bankers should work to serve the people, not the markets – SCMP Pandemic has changed travel forever, says AirBnB boss – BBC Inflation to remain higher for two years, warns OECD – BBC The global supply chain crisis could fuel a severe dose of stagflation – Guardian, Roubini Global Traders Given


Pictures of Melbourne’s earthquake

At around 9am this morning, Melbourne was hit with a magnitude 6.0 earthquake – quite large and uncommon for Australia, which sits on a tectonic plate. I was busy writing up an article when suddenly my computer and desk started to shake and I heard a noise that sounded like a washing machine spin cycle.


Links 22 September 2021

Macro & Markets Global energy shortage looms as investment in fossil fuels slides – Nikkei Asia US-China tensions tug at Pacific internet cables – Asia Times The global economy could feel the effects of China’s Evergrande crisis. Here’s what investors should know – CNBC China Evergrande fears grip markets as Beijing stands back, for now


Sydney is much sicker than Berejiklian’s making out

Thankfully we still have some independent press. The Saturday Paper: The rate of Covid-19 hospitalisations in New South Wales is being reported at one-third of the real figure, with the actual numbers being masked by a decision to only report those who end up in medical facilities, and not the thousands receiving care under the


Foxtel back in black, but threats remain

Media giant News Corporation has posted a 2020-21 net profit of $US389 million ($525.6 million), compared with a loss of $US1.55 billion for the previous financial year. While News Corp Australia’s revenue was 1% lower than previously, revenue of pay-TV group Foxtel was boosted by strong growth in subscriptions for its Binge and Kayo streaming


Chartfest: 1 August 2021

Americas – US Central America Unemployment US Dollar and US Twin Deficits Fed Fund Futures   S&P Sectors and Industries – July 2021   US Population Demographics   US Employment & Earnings by Sector 2019 – 2020 US 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages US Core Capex US Carbon Capture Projects   US Coal Mines  


Weekend Links: 24-25 July, 2021

Across the Yarra, 1931, Clarice Beckett, National Gallery of Victoria   Macro & Markets Why there is no solution to our age of crisis without China – New Statesman The aftermath of sovereign debt crises – VoxEU The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Why this time may be different – VoxEU Don’t worry about