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Links 17 May 2022
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Bitcoin’s 50% crash erases all of Elon Musk’s gains on Tesla balance sheet – Fortune Saudi Aramco Posts Record Quarterly Profit on Surging Oil Prices – WSJ Global Prices Expected To Rise As India Bans Wheat Exports – Says Results of the week of the blockchain industry – Medium
Macrobusiness Sundries: 7-8 May 2022
Desmodromic ‘Leaving Alice Springs I headed into the eastern Macdonnell Ranges to Ross River and Binns Track. Binns Track was rough, wash aways, some bull dust, sand and numerous dry creek crossings. It was all manageable but in the end I decided too remote to be travelling solo. Once at Gemtree, I abandoned plans to
Weekend Sundries: April 30 – May 1, 2022
Desmodromic ‘Initially headed north through the Flinders Ranges and took a punt with the forecast of rain. I lost. In Marree it poured rain and both the Oodnadatta and Birdsville Tracks closed. Nonetheless took the opportunity to fly over Lake Eyre and was rewarded with spectacular views due to the rain. With little prospect of
Daily iron ore price update (violent destock?)
The ferrous complex was mixed on April 27, 2022: A few charts. Steel profitability has collapsed largely owing to the surge in coking coal: This would usually precipitate a violent destocking of raw materials by steel mills to crash prices. Mills are still overproducing steel as well, with inventories falling unusually slowly seasonally, which makes
ANZAC Long weekend sundries: 23 April 2022
Desmodromic Packed and ready for a Sunday departure, first stop the Cradock Hotel in the southern Flinders Ranges. The return to Adelaide from Cairns avoids Serat, thanks boom, and takes in Tibooburra, the preferred route of JohnR. I’ll post pictures to Weekend Sundries and updates to macro Afternoon whenever I can. Jason
Macro Afternoon
Not a good finish to the trading week here in Asia with falls almost across the board in response to a hawkish Fed overnight. Mainland Chinese markets were the exception as domestic fears of quicker and higher rate rises by the RBA unsettled Australian stocks although the Australian dollar sold off sharply as well. Oil
Easter Weekend Links: April 15-19 2022
‘Falling Tide’ Fred Leist, 1940s, Art Gallery of NSW Macro & Markets Elon Musk swoops down on Twitter with $41 bln cash offer – Reuters Are Major Central Banks Doing Enough to Fight Inflation? – Project Syndicate UN warns of ‘great finance divide’ as COVID shocks, debt, hits poorest hardest – DW Three ways
Weekend Chartfest: 2-3 April, 2022
AUSTRALIA Child Care Support Car Dependence Employment Growth Total Employment Energy Fuel Source Rents, Wages, CPI and House Prices Housing Stress CPI, RBA Rate, Wage Growth Labour Force Underutilisation Mortgage Payments, Principal and Interest Petrol Prices Household Spending over time University Sector
Biden brain fart turns up the nuclear notch
United States President Joe Biden has declared Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ in a speech in Warsaw, Poland. The words appear to have been a deviation from his prepared script by a 79 year old man carried away by the emotion of events he is now central to, and possibly unaware of
Weekend Sundries 26-27 March, 2022
Ermington Plumbing ‘The lovely old lady who lives in this Gladesville property paid $2500 for some roofing contractor to membrane the 2 Roof valleys into the dodgy 30 to 40 year old fill in extension and didn’t even pull back the tiles to membrane the whole valley properly. I’m told it has always leaked down
Australian dollar rocket launches
DXY popped and dropped last night: The AUD only popped, like a rocket: Commodities were relatively weak: Big miners rolled: EM stocks were OK: Junk is still lagging not leading this rally, a bad sign: As the yield curve is steamrolled: But stocks don’t care: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US Richmond Fed activity
Daily iron ore price update (jawbone boom)
The ferrous complex blasted off on March 16, 2022: CISA early March output data was hammered as expected as the post-Olympics surge lasted as long as rain on the mountainside: The price surge was driven by economic jawboning. Goldman: Vice Premier Liu He chaired the Financial Stability and Development Committee meeting today, and he responded
Saudis mull joining Blob of Bellicosity
With each passing day, “Psycho” Morrison’s Arc of Autocracy is twisted more out of shape. Today we have Saudi Arabia mulling a connection: Saudi Arabia appears to be sending a political message to the U.S. with reports that it will consider accepting yuan payments for oil sold to China, currency strategists say. The world’s largest crude
Reborn Foxtel readies for public float
Two years ago, as the world headed into lockdown, Foxtel faced an existential threat. With global sporting events cancelled, Foxtel suffered a large loss of subscribers, which ultimately led to hundreds of employees being made redundant in a bid to shave costs. Over the following two years, Foxtel has experienced a renaissance. It began when
The first large dump of the 2022 election campaign – hot and steaming
Its here https://economicplan.gov.au A page on which the unwary may be gathered expecting some sort of guidance on who they should be voting for, running off the back of the Treasury Department. The Government is getting in early to divide us into individuals and business… Both offer delights. But before we go there let us
Daily iron ore price update (2022 growth targets)
The ferrous complex was mixed on March 4, 2022: Weekend news on the Chinese growth target was pretty much as expected but will probably be seen as bullish. Goldman with the note: The 2022 National People’s Congress started today. PM Li Keqiang delivered the Government Work Report (GWR) which outlined key economic targets for this
Australia’s trade surplus launches in January
The ABS has today released trade data for January, with Australia’s trade surplus increasing by $4,067 million to $12,891 million on the back of rising iron ore exports: According to the ABS: Goods and services credits (exports) rose $3,487m (8%) to $49,251m, driven by a rise in exports of Metal ores and minerals. Goods and
MB Fund Podcast: When Goldilocks Markets Meet a Russian Bear LIVE NOW
In today’s investment webinar (LIVE 12:30pm AEDT), MB Fund’s Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, and Senior Financial Adviser Sam Kerr take a look at the investment fallout from the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia. One week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine we’ll look at the situation as it
“Tiny” Tim Wilson opens the dirt file
“Tiny” Tim Wilson’s war of survival in Goldstein continues today with reports that the LNP has tried and failed to unleash its dirt files against his independent challenger, Zoe Daniel: In December, [Andrew] Bragg asked some very pointed questions about Daniel, which the ABC took on notice. “During Mrs Zoe Daniel’s time in the Washington
What now for stocks?
Stifel with some solid research: Seventeen non-recession S&P 500 corrections >10% since 1962 fell an average 16.95% and 4,050 (our new view, 4,200 prior) forthe S&P 500 would be -15.6%. Equities remain hostage to Russia-Ukraine, but there are other post-pandemic risks. After the S&P500 low (4,114 Feb-24) below our prior 1Q22 target price of 4,200,