Miscellaneous

3

Weekend Chartfest 21-22 July, 2018

      Australia       If the Next 25 Years are like the last 25       The Descent from the RE Peak       Sydney & Melbourne, Prices and Time on Market       Sydney Auction Clearance Rates       Mortgage Rates       Regional Australia Proportional

9

Weekend Chartfest, 14-15 July, 2018

Australia       Major City House Values over last 25 years       House Price growth – Major Cities       Population Increase and Dwelling Investment       Population Growth       Net Overseas Migration by Visa – From July 5 Presentation made in Wollongong by Alexandra Heath    

32

AMP hikes mortgage interest rates

From AMP: We are managing our portfolio in a very active market and our decisions on rates are never taken lightly. We have held off passing this cost on to customers for as long as we can and in fact have not increased interest rates for existing customers since June last year. With any change,

6

Chronically stupid ACCC pushes wrong energy intervention

Here it is: The Australian Government should operate a program under which it will enter into low fixedprice (for example, $45–$50/MWh) energy offtake agreements for the later years (say 6–15) of appropriate new generation projects which meet certain criteria. In doing so, project developers will be able to secure debt finance for projects where they

53

Stress-testing a captured APRA

From the boys at LF Economics: So yesterday APRA came out and said that if unemployment rose to 11%, House prices fell by 35%, and the Chinese economy tanked, that the Australian banking system would be able to withstand the economic stresses associated with this type of economic destruction. So let’s use a bit of

50

Go the Poms

Forgot to post this earlier but I’ll just leave it here. In 1990 I lived in London and enjoyed the World Cup first hand as the Poms made the semi-final  versus Germany. When Chris Waddle hit the post in extra time I nearly ruptured my melon on the ceiling fan in the local pub. Then

28

APRA declares mission accomplished on repairing dodgy banks

Via APRA: Wayne Byres, Chairman – the Australian Business Economists (ABE), Sydney I would like to start by thanking the Australian Business Economists for the invitation to be part of today’s event. On 1 July, APRA turned 20. Two decades of prudential regulation have required APRA to tackle all manner of issues, but a constant

11

Bike sharing companies leave Sydney and Adelaide

By Leith van Onselen Last month, bike sharing company, oBikes, announced that it would leave Melbourne following the Victorian Government’s crack-down on the company, which classified abandoned bikes as litter and potentially liable for $3,000 fines. Now bike sharing companies, Reddy Go and Ofo, have announced that they will exit Sydney. From SBS News: Two

5

Financial vampires bleed Australia’s productive economy

By Leith van Onselen This site has frequently questioned the merits around the explosion of Australia’s financial economy, claiming it has bled the productive economy dry: Today, Ross Gittins has joined the fray: Productivity isn’t improving as fast it could be partly because of the increasing number of our brightest and best devoting their efforts

13

Weekend Chartfest 7-8 July, 2018

Australia       Australian Gas       Australia Money Growth & Credit       Australia Building Approvals       Australia Dwelling Price to Household Income &  Interest Rates       Australia Temporary Migrants       Australia Underemployment & Wages       Victoria Real Compensation per Employee    

45

Macro Afternoon

As the traders on Wall Street return to their yachts for a night of fireworks, their customers are left with a dour prospect on the return of the bears, as Asian markets continue to selloff. Combined with the US unemployment print on Friday, the mood is seeing USD weakening against the majors with gold rallying

18

Weekend Chartfest June 30 – July 1, 2018

  Australia       Australian dollar and yield differential RBA and US Federal Reserve     BBSW 2018       Australian Short Term Funding 2017 onwards       Funding Costs (BBSW) and Mortgage Rates       Australian interest rate hikes – potential implications for $500k mortgage       Australian Household

449

Weekend Links June 30-July 1, 2018

Vertigo, 1986, Magda Matweijew, National Gallery of Victoria   Macro & Markets Trade and investment between China and the US must be based on reciprocity – SCMP EU cuts migration deal after marathon talks, differences remain – Reuters Global market power and its macroeconomic implications – VoxEU Dollar Squeeze Coming? Watch Asia’s Politicians – Bloomberg

10

Weekend Chartfest 23-24 June, 2018

Australia   The in the pocket impact of Pauline’s sellout tax cuts (…..and the payoff is?)   Total Housing Finance & House Prices (and if the banks are lending less then….)     March Quarter Residential Property     Sydney 6x DTI       Australian Mortgage Payments as percentage of household income    

179

Weekend Links 16-17 June, 2018

All night joint, Frank Andrew, 1946, Art Gallery of NSW I will load more later but I need to run kids around first – G   Global Macro, Markets & Investing Trump announces $50bn in China tariffs, escalating possibility of trade war – Guardian Here’s How a Trade War Between the U.S. and China Could

32

Weekend Chartfest 16 – 17 June, 2018

Australia Australia – change in 20% deposit for median priced dwelling, major cities 2008-2018     Australian mortgage rates     Australia – Credit impulse and house prices (1)     Australian lending growth and house prices (2)     Housing Finance, Annual Growth – Owner occupiers     Housing Finance, Annual Growth – specufestors

57

oBikes suffered from the “tragedy of the commons”

By Leith van Onselen Bike sharing company oBikes has announced that it will leave Melbourne following the Victorian Government’s crack-down on the company, which classified abandoned bikes as litter and potentially liable for $3,000 fines. From The ABC: …oBike announced it would abandon its problematic local hire scheme. …the distinctive yellow bicycles quickly caused headaches

8

Permanent migrant intake to fall to 165,000 in 2017-18

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday at Senate Estimates it was revealed that Australia’s permanent migrant intake could be 25,000 lower than last year on the back of fewer skilled and sponsored working visas. From The Guardian: Australia’s migration program has been at 190,000 since 2012-13, but dropped to 183,000 last financial year and will fall further

37

Queens Birthday Weekend Chartfest 9-11 June, 2018

Australia   Australia – selected growth metrics   Australia – retail sales   Australian Trade Balance   Company Earnings & Wages   Non farm compensation    Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time   Effect of Governments personal tax cuts over time 2   Sydney – Melbourne Auction Clearances   Distribution of Melbourne house sales

42

Weekend Chartfest 2 – 3 June, 2018

Australia   Australia – temporary visas   Declines in 457 visa numbers   Australian National Minimum Wage Increases   Australia – Average and Median Incomes   Australia – Capex   Australia – Capex by State   Australia – changes in dwelling values   Australia – share of dwellings by price growth   Australia – Sydney

16

Weekend Chartfest 26-27 May, 2018

Australia   Australian Housing – Where headed 1   Australian Housing – Where headed 2   Melbourne and Sydney Auction Clearance rates   Australia – House prices and the RBA   Australian Consumer Confidence   Budget Tax exemption vehicles   Australia – International Student Visas   Australia Productivity & Income   Australia – Public Sector Construction

5

S11D disgorges

Via Creamers: Brazilian miner Vale expects iron-ore output at its premier S11D mine to reach 58-million tonnes this year, above an official forecast of 50-million to 55-million tonnes, a person familiar with the matter said. The expected increase is due mainly to selling more “canga,” or iron-ore with a higher grade of contaminants – along

55

Rich List reaches peak oligarchy

If you want an example of why the world’s rich are in deep trouble then look no further that today’s repulsive AFR Rich List write-up: It is Saturday night in late April at the luxurious Mar-a-Lago resort in the billionaires’ playground of West Palm Beach, Florida. Inside the dining room – a faithful replica of