Weekend Links 2-3 April, 2016

Policeman Floating in River, Sidney Nolan, 1964, Art Gallery of New South Wales

China

• Standard & Poor’s cuts China, Hong Kong sovereign credit outlook to negative from stable – SCMP
• China’s forex regulator to limit risks as slowing growth, US interest rates raise spectre of currency fluctuations – SCMP
• Offshore yuan borrowing cost goes negative for the first time – SCMP
• Now China Has a Two-Speed Property Market, Too – Bloomberg
• China’s growth mantra becoming hard sell – BBC
• Sour loans crimp Chinese banks’ profits – Nikkei Asian Review
• China’s Next Stimulus – Project-Syndicate
• China’s Next Agenda – Project-Syndicate
• RBS: China’s Economy: Slowing Distorted And Debt-Addicted – Value Walk
• China to Place New Taxes on Foreign Goods Bought via E-Commerce – Caixin
• About Three-Quarters of Students Going Abroad Return to China: Report – Caixin…yeah, but do they get a passport and apartment thrown in anywhere else?…
• Manufacturing Slows at Lowest Rate in 13 Months, with PMI at 49.7 – Caixin
• China’s manufacturing shows early signs of recovery as it expands for first time in 9 months – SCMP
• China’s economic growth may drop to 5 per cent a year at start of next decade, says central bank researcher – SCMP
• China’s FX regulator is the latest member of Beijing’s stock-boosting “national team” – Quartz
• The slowdown: What’s China worried about? – CNBC
• SAFE Subsidiary Takes Stakes in Several Listed Banks – Caixin
• Why Fiscal Stimulus Is Not the Answer for China – Caixin
• A US$60m HK life policy will do to get money out of China – SCMP
• Stimulus boosts China business activity, yet outlook remains weak – Nikkei Asian Review
• Worker unrest threatens one-party rule in China – Nikkei Asian Review

Asia

• Bank defaults: Kazakhstan’s Groundhog Day – Euromoney
• Mongolia is finely balanced between default and the next boom – BNE Intellinews
• Moody’s cuts Singapore bank outlooks as ‘headwinds’ pick up – Nikkei Asian Review
• Markets take hard look at Abenomics amid downturn – Nikkei Asian Review
• Moody’s downgrades ratings outlook for Singapore banks to negative – Business Times
• The New Normal: Japanese Retirees Turn To Crime For Free Benefits – Value Walk
• Japan business mood sours to three-year low, adds to doubt over ‘Abenomics’ – Reuters
• Singapore Home Prices Have Longest Drop in Almost 2 Decades – Bloomberg
• BOJ’s Tankan survey points to end of ‘virtuous cycle’ – Nikkei Asian Review

 Europe

• ECB decisions put lack of fiscal union in the spotlight – Bruegel…but this was obvious 8 years ago wasn’t it?…
• The property manager and Putin’s friends – Reuters
• Putin’s visible hand – Russia economy doomed to 4 years of stagnation – BNE Intellinews, Aris
• Russia considers how to impose austerity in a time of recession – BNE Intellinews
• Italy industry minister resigns amid probe – CNBC
• Authorities in Monaco raid oil firm HQ in corruption investigation – Guardian
• Preparing for Europe’s Next Recession – Project-Syndicate
• No Country for Young Men (and Women) – Project-Syndicate
• Euro zone stuck in deflation despite ECB QE – CNBC
• Knowing your Nordics: An overview of central bank policy and the negative rate environment – Bond Vigilantes

United Kingdom

• Britain courts fate on Brexit with worst external deficit in history – Telegraph, AEP
• China steel giant to raise output by 20% in grim outlook for UK industry – Guardian
• Ministers start hunt for Tata Steel buyers – Guardian
• Steel crisis: builders, manufacturers and carmakers urged to buy British – Guardian
• Current account deficit hits record high as GDP revised higher – Guardian
• Would Brexit help Britain’s steel industry? – Guardian
• The Tata steel crisis proves there was no long-term economic plan – Telegraph
• Tata Steel crisis: Cameron says nationalisation not the answer as Javid faces storm of criticism  – Telegraph
• Britain says state takeover not the answer in steel crisis – Reuters
• Former Navy chief says ‘unforgiveable’ if UK steel production ends – BBC
• Britain is a nation that has forgotten how to save – Telegraph…or is that the English speaking world has forgotten how to save?…
• Why Britain Should Remain European – Peterson Institute, Simon Johnson
• The Tata steel crisis proves there was no long-term economic plan – Telegraph
• Tata Steel crisis: Cameron says nationalisation not the answer as Javid faces storm of criticism  – Telegraph
• Britain says state takeover not the answer in steel crisis – Reuters
• CHANCELLOR OF OSB – FIRST MIRRORS, NOW UP IN SMOKE – Pieria
• Nationalisation is a red herring. But the state should save steel – Guardian
• UK Scrambles To Protect Workers’ Jobs As Tata Steel Looks To Sell Off Loss-Making Unit – IB Times

United States

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls increase solidly, wages rebound – Reuters
• U.S. Hiring Kept Up Fast Pace in March, Adding 215,000 Jobs – NY Times
• A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Recession – Bloomberg, Shilling
• Boeing plans to cut thousands of US jobs amid fierce competition – Guardian
• The Cities on the Sunny Side of the American Economy – NY Times
• With ‘Gigs’ Instead of Jobs, Workers Bear New Burdens – NY Times
• GE. Asks for Removal of ‘Too Big to Fail’ Label From GE Capital – NY Times
• America’s White, Wealthy, Middle-Age Urban Revival – Slate
• U.S. Textile Industry Turns to Tech as Gateway to Revival – NY Times
• New Obamacare surprise: New customers look just like average Americans – LA Times
• U.S. labor market strength intact, manufacturing regaining footing – Reuters
• Businesses add 200,000 jobs in March as U.S. labor market keeps improving – LA Times
• 100 CEOs Have More Saved Up for Retirement Than 41 Percent of U.S. Families Combined – The Atlantic
• A Major Leap for the Minimum Wage – The Atlantic
• Booming economy encourages Americans to look for work – Telegraph

Americas

• Canada’s economy grows much more than expected, dimming chances of rate cut – Financial Post
• Bank of Canada warns economy’s recovery from oil shock will take more than two years – Financial Post
• Whoa! Suddenly Canada’s economy is looking not so shabby. Here’s what the economists say – Financial Post
• Canada`s Fiscal Policy Shift – Sober Look
• Archer Daniels Midland in deal to sell Brazil sugar ethanol operations – Reuters
• Argentina’s Senate Allows Payment to Bondholders – NY Times
• Brazilian billionaire and owner of the Gherkin charged in bribery scheme – Guardian
• Argentina set to launch bond, end hedge fund battle – CNBC
• Canada’s Trudeau: NAFTA reopening not ‘real issue’ – CNBC
• Brazil prosecutors charge billionaire Safra in bribery scheme – Reuters
• Cash bonuses for B.C. real estate agents called into question – Vancouver Sun
• Argentina overturns holdout creditor law – World Finance

Terra Incognita

• Australian first-home buyers face higher than ever loan default risk, says report – Guardian
• Turnbull’s half-baked tax plan – it’s really more about cutting services – Guardian
• Malcolm Turnbull starts pulling the big policy levers – Fairfax
• Five key questions on how Malcolm Turnbull’s income tax shakeup would work – Fairfax
• Unaoil scandal draws in WorleyParsons – Fairfax
• Australia home price growth slows further in March – Business Times
• They get $438k, you get just $48k: figures show the uber-rich are earning more and more – Fairfax, Peter Martin
• COAG: Malcolm Turnbull’s radical plan on state taxing powers knocked back – Fairfax
• The fast lane is accelerating in our two-speed economy – Fairfax, Pascoemeter…beyond the high point of a housing bubble?…
• Sydney, Melbourne attracting the world’s millionaires – Fairfax
• More customers refinance debt at cheaper interest rates – Fairfax
• Modelling shows why premiers are wary of Turnbull’s tax proposal – The Conversation
• Australia doesn’t need eight different income tax rates – The Conversation
• Seriously, is Turnbull trying to lose this election? – ABC…I do find myself wondering about the game plan…
• Manufacturing strongest since 2004, despite dollar bounce: Australian Industry Group – ABC
• ‘Mixed messages’ on buying farmland driving away foreign investment, expert says – ABC
• Home prices set to stagnate as Sydney boom falls flat – ABC, Janda
• Is Australian property overvalued? – Callam Pickering
• Do higher land prices make us rich? – Callam Pickering
• Kiwi uni graduates ditch NZ – Stuff.co.nz
• China Builds an Empire of Electricity With Australia as Target – Bloomberg
• China’s Little Emperors Prop Up Aussie Housing Market – Bloomberg
• Australia’s ‘future’ fund should not consider financing the energy projects of the past – Guardian
• Premiers welcome Turnbull’s $2.9bn for hospitals but reject income-tax plan – Guardian
• Malcolm Turnbull finds $2.9bn for public hospitals, but nothing more for schools – Guardian
• As China Turns to Consumers, Australia Confronts End of Iron Age – Bloomberg, Michael Heath
• WORLD’S BIGGEST BRIBE SCANDAL – Fairfax…a good read and excellent reporting…
• Conflicts at CommInsure: more details emerge showing it’s time for change – Fairfax
• Why we should worry about fixing the budget – Fairfax
• Inquiries help shine a light, but rarely give rise to reform – Fairfax
• Worley shares slip after ‘incredibly alarming’ corruption claims – Fairfax
• THE DINING BOOM – The Monthly
• THE BOOMER SUPREMACY – The Monthly…very good read…

Commodities

• Chinese steelmakers report huge losses amid plunging prices and overcapacity – SCMP
• U.S. refiners press on despite unbalanced fuel demand – Reuters, Kemp
• Baosteel sees higher 2016 output as world reels from China’s glut – Reuters
• Adjusting to the Fall in Commodity Prices: One Step at a Time (pdf) – Bank of Canada, Lynn Patterson…worth a look to see how other commodity central banks see things…
• Will Electric Vehicles Cause A Future Oil Crash? – Oilprice.com
• India’s SPR Ambitions Could Help Soak Up The Oil Glut – Oilprice.com
• Forget The Tough Talk – Saudi Arabia Is Desperate For a Production Freeze – Oilprice.com
• Uranium Production Costs Fall For The First Time In 5 Years – Oilprice.com
• Russian oilseed crushing to hit record levels – Agrimoney
• Ukraine rapeseed exports to hit 9-year low – boding well for Aussies – Agrimoney
• U.S. Motorists Burning Through Record Levels of Gasoline – Oilprice.com
• Is it time to go long on European steel? – Platts
• As U.S. shale drillers suffer, even the bankrupt keep pumping oil – Reuters
• Fitch Ratings: European milk production to delay price recovery – NZ Herald
• Lower Brent prices and Saudi policy options: What’s shale oil got to do with it? – VoxEU
• Copper set for worst run since January on China demand worries – Mineweb
• Why Russian Oil Production is on the Verge of Decline – Economonitor
• Oil Tumbles After Saudis Say They Will Freeze Oil Production Only If Iran Joins – Zero Hedge

Capital Markets

• Treasury yields post largest quarterly drop in nearly 4 years – Market Watch
• The Repercussions of Financial Booms and Crises – Angry Bear
• Where Will Currencies Go From Here? – Value Walk
• Washington Refused to Break Up Big Banks, but Activist Investors Might – Value Walk
• `Trade of a Decade’? It Doesn’t Bode Well for Emerging Markets – Bloomberg
• Commodities & Inflation Expectations – Short Side of Long
• Taking gravity online: The role of virtual proximity in international finance – VoxEU
• The US is beginning to dominate global investment banking: Implications for Europe – VoxEU
• Is the oil price-GDP link broken? – Bruegel

Global Macro

• Housing Bubbles and Low Interest Rates: DéJà vu All over Again? – Economonitor…well worth a look…
• World’s top banks in U.S. government cross-hairs over dealings with 1MDB – Reuters…world’s top banks would no doubt prefer an Australian regulatory approach to corruption…
• Abe argues for G-7 action on global economy in meeting with Obama – Nikkei Asian Review
• Calm before the storm: how central banks are brewing the next financial crisis – SCMP
• Larry Summers: Corporate profits are near record highs. Here’s why that’s a problem. – Washington Post
• The ‘buy and hold’ era is over — and you can thank Janet Yellen for that – Financial Post
• Flood of central bank moves have steered economy clear of recession, but can’t lift world out of its rut – Financial Post
• Trade, Labor, and Politics – NY Times, Krugman
• The world may have too much food – Business Times
• The one trend no company can afford to ignore – CBS…old spenders, the world over…
• The Tectonic Forces Shaping the Businesses of the Future – Economonitor
• When Things Fall Apart – Project-Syndicate, Kaletsky
• Plan B for the Global Economy – Project-Syndicate
• Macroeconomic Forces Underlying Trade Deficits – Peterson Institute
• Free Trade Agreements and Trade Deficits – Peterson Institute…worth a look…
• Why Has Trade Stopped Growing? Not Much Liberalization and Lots of Micro-Protection – Peterson Institute…and the questions about currency?…
• ‘Attack The Property’ — Russian Activists Campaign For London Real Estate Transparency – IB Times, Howard Amos…if the corrupt and the uber set become literal rent seekers, let them be accounted for the vehicles they rent…
• 2016: The End Of The Global Debt Super Cycle – Zero Hedge
• Oil Prices and the Global Economy: It’s Complicated – IMF
• Economic Reality v Central Banking: Vegas-styled Showdown – Constantin Gurdgiev
• Defiant China slaps steel tariffs on Britain as trade war looms  – Telegraph

…and furthermore…

• The Invisible Catastrophe: Over the course of 4 months, 97,100 metric tons of methane quietly leaked out of a single well into California’s sky. Scientists and residents are still trying to figure out just how much damage was done. – NY Times…epic but tragic read….
• Nearly 70% of canned foods contain BPA – Market Watch
• Uh Oh: Antarctica Might Melt Much Faster Than We Thought – Slate
• Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk charges up the crowd for mass-appeal car – Market Watch
• It’s getting more expensive to be poor – Washington Post
• Foxconn’s purchase of Japanese icon Sharp reveals huge shift in global electronics – Washington Post
• Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly – NY Times
• Obese humans now outnumber the underweight: Study – CNBC
• Beyond Carbon Metrics – Project-Syndicate
• Investment In Knowledge Is More Consistent Than Investment In Physical Capital – Value Walk
• Visualizing The World’s Top 50 Wealthiest Billionaires – Value Walk…worth a look…
• The Wisdom of Twitter Crowds: Tweet based asset-allocation strategy outperforms several benchmarks – Value Walk
• The Exotic Animal Traffickers of Ancient Rome – The Atlantic
• The Commodification of Higher Education – The Atlantic
• The swinging door between financial journalism and banking – SCMP…as one who has straddled the divide I would observe it is all too often a cancer for journalism…
• Shell faces corruption probe over $1bn oil deal in Nigeria – Guardian…hard to know where business ends and corruption begins…
• What does Snapchat know about you? New tool offers some answers – LA Times
• Time to rethink the way we measure economic activity – VoxEU…good read…
• Good booms, bad booms: Why only some credit booms end in a crisis – VoxEU
• ‘You’re treated like a dinosaur because you don’t tweet’: what it’s like being an older worker – Guardian…maybe like being treated as a dinosaur for not owning a house or not paying off a mortgage?…
• Imagine What Fiscal Policy Could Do For Innovation – IMF
• How Much Does It Cost to Be a Bridesmaid? – Priceonomics…weddings are bloody expensive…