Weekend links Jan. 16-17, 2016

Sunbathers, Albert Tucker, 1945, NGV

China

• A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Over Markets – Bloomberg, Curran…superb read…
• China elites likely playing a bigger role in short selling yuan than foreign ‘crocodiles’ – SCMP
• China income inequality among world’s worst – FT.com
• China’s Capital Flight – Bloomberg
• China resorts to ‘nuclear strength’ weapons to defend the yuan – Guardian
• China’s investment landscape has shifted and the ripples are spreading far and wide – SCMP
• Mainland Chinese define fraud differently, and Hong Kong regulators should wake up – SCMP
• China’s Anti-Graft Drive Supports Resilient Growth – Economonitor
• China December bank lending weak, but broader credit growth jumps – CNBC
• Anti-corruption drive leaves state enterprises shaken – Nikkei Asian Review
• The Source of China’s Coal Dependency – NY Times
• Why You Shouldn’t Believe China’s Latest Trade Data – Epoch Times
• The depreciation of RMB may prompt property sales – China Daily
• Chinese nuclear company plans marine reactor by 2020 – China Daily
• This is the Hidden Bright Spot in China’s Economy – Fortune
• China’s Grain Stockpile Gets Out of Hand – Dim Sums
• China Chart: Stock market volatility in the past decade – Peterson Institute…now there is a chart which tells a story…
• Local Gov’ts Use Newfound Power to Approve Dirty Coal-Fired Power Plants – Caixin
• Internet Investment Firm Said to Raise 40 Bln Yuan Illegally – Caixin
• Exports rose to record 112.4m tons in 2015 – Nikkei Asian Review
• China’s workforce faces tough year shifting gears from manufacturing to services – CER
• The Chinese Economy’s Great Wall – Project-Syndicate, El-Erian
• Weaker yuan would be no panacea for China Inc – Reuters

 Asia

• India’s crazy housing bubble is definitely not bursting anytime soon – Quartz
• Azerbaijan’s Economy In Dire Straits As Oil Prices Keep Tanking – OilPrice.com
• Saudi Arabia plans new sovereign wealth fund – sources – Reuters
• Can China’s rising tide lift the Caucasus and Central Asia? – BNE Intellinews…good read…
• Why Indonesia urgently needs to address the burning issue of palm oil – World Finance
• Saudi Arabia scurries to keep dollar peg as oil producers feel heat – Nikkei Asian Review
• Foreign investment down 78% despite incentives – Nikkei Asian Review
• Oil rout tramples Japan’s budding hopes for inflation – Nikkei Asian Review
• In Taiwan, Survivor Mentality Stymies Tech Innovation – NY Times
• Crude oil tumble hits Southeast Asia’s biodiesel ambitions – Reuters
• Bubble on the horizon as demand falters – Nikkei Asian Review

 Europe

• IMF demands debt relief as price for involvement in Greek bail-out – Telegraph
• Glimmers of hope for oil as Russia poised to slash output – Telegraph
• Euro zone needs workable banking union – Reuters
• With oil prices plunging, Russia looks ahead to grim 2016 – Washington Post
• Russia must slash spending or face financial crash, warns minister – BNE Intellinews
• Has ECB QE lifted inflation? – Bruegel
• Spain’s Catalonia Secession Drama Is About to Get a Lot Worse – Fortune
• Switzerland Weathers the Superstrong Franc – Bloomberg
• Merkel Urged to Pass Message to Draghi: End Record-Low Rates – Bloomberg

 United Kingdom

• Bank of England keeps interest rates unchanged as financial volatility hints at global growth risks – Telegraph
• Britain’s Brexit tantrum grates in a brittle world but the die is cast –Telegraph, AEP
• London new home planning approvals slump in third quarter – Guardian
• At least 16m young people worse off under new state pension – Telegraph
• Scrap guarantees for savers’ deposits to avoid banking crises, says think tank – Telegraph
• Spike in UK companies suffering ‘significant ‘ financial distress – Telegraph
• RBS sell warning spells trouble for George Osborne’s budget – Guardian
• Under-40s worse off as result of state pension changes, data shows – Guardian
• Economic success this year will need more than “good fundamentals” – CapX
• Bank of England adds to global gloom – BBC
• OSBORNE’S CRITICAL BUT (THANKFULLY) UNACCOMPLISHED MISSION – Pieria

 United States

• U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly – NY Times
• Commodities slide triggers ‘freight recession’ on US rails – FT.com
• Why Chinese Factories Fare Poorly in the U.S. – New Yorker
• U.S. Import Price Decline Remains Broad-Based – Haver
• The Feds Just Blew Up the Allure of New York City’s High-End-Condo Market: Anonymity – New York Magazine
• U.S. Will Track Secret Buyers of Luxury Real Estate – NY Times
• U.S. to invest billions in self-driving cars – LA Times
• Federal Reserve sends record $97.7-billion profit to Treasury – LA Times
• Why U.S. retail sales will be weak again in December – Market Watch
• US JOBS REPORT BRINGS RESPITE FROM CHINA ‘CRISIS’ – Pieria
• US Treasury combats money laundering in property markets – World Finance
• US steel wonders if interventions are enough to keep imports at bay – Platts
• U.S. jobless claims rise; import prices sharply weaker – Reuters
• U.S Proposes Spending $4 Billion on Self-Driving Cars – NY Times
• Gaming of Obamacare Poses a Fatal Threat – Bloomberg
• Immigrants or Executives: Who’s to Blame for Wage Stagnation? – The Atlantic
• What Is This ‘Wage Insurance’ Obama’s Talking About? – The Atlantic
• So You Think A Recession Is Imminent, Employment Edition – Tim Duy
• Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About The Deficit Anymore? – Five Thirty Eight
• Is The Junk Bond Market Predicting A US Recession? – Capital Spectator
• The Crop Surplus Is Bad News for America’s Farms – Bloomberg
• In Climate Move, Obama to Halt New Coal Mining Leases on Public Lands – NY Times
• 6 reasons why markets discount the FOMC’s rate forecasts for 2016 – Sober Look…good charts…
• Reforming or Deforming the Fed? – Project-Syndicate, Eichengreen
• How Would Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Reform Wall Street? – Peterson Institute

 Americas

• How a B.C. man pulled off one of the most sophisticated immigration frauds in Canadian history – Vancouver Sun…couple of months old but a classic read. And odds on something similar being in play in Australia?…
• With economy at risk, Bank of Canada’s Stephen Poloz remains on dovish path – Financial Post
• Calls growing for a Bank of Canada interest rate cut next week as oil’s spiral deepens – Financial Post
• Living with a low dollar  – Financial Post…Australians could do this too…
• Here’s how much more Canadians will have to pay for fruits and veg because of our low dollar – Financial Post
• Argentina To End Dispute With Bondholders, Starting In New York – IB Times
• Alberta Freezes Government Salaries As Canada’s Oil Patch Enters Second Year Of Recession – Zero Hedge

 Terra Incognita

• Australia has few tools left to fight recession, warns leading forecaster Stephen Anthony – Fairfax, Martin…how long will Australia retain the AAA?…
• Many Australians dying with large superannuation balances, CSIRO research shows – ABC
• Home lending defies property downturn, Australia takes debt gold medal – ABC
• Queensland Nickel: 237 workers to lose jobs at Clive Palmer’s refinery in Townsville – ABC
• With a growing number of people yelling ‘fire’, market exits could soon be blocked – ABC, Janda
• Oz Minerals to shed 100 workers from Prominent Hill near Coober Pedy – ABC
• How Australian households became the most indebted in the world – Guardian, Phil Soos…everyone should read this…
• The latest job figures are promising – but can they last amid the economic gloom? – Guardian, Jericho
• Woolworths accused of cancelling baby formula orders from Asian Australians – Guardian
• Deja vu for Australian economy as China woes portend another bad year – Guardian, Jericho
• Australia bet the house on never-ending Chinese growth. It might not end well – Guardian, Lindsay David
• China steps up efforts to cultivate promising bread basket – Nikkei Asian Review
• Sydney Apartment Rents Follow Prices Lower on Overbuilding – Bloomberg
• Australian Bauxite suspends operations, seeks buyer for maiden shipment – Reuters
• BHP Billiton slashes U.S. shale assets value by $7.2 billion – Reuters
• BHP shale joins the blunder big league – Fairfax
• Australian labour market – goes backwards again –Bill Mitchell

 Commodities

• Don’t worry (too) much about China’s commodity demand – Reuters, Clyde Russell
• An ugly start to what may be a brutal year for nickel producers – Reuters, Home
• Are There Alternatives To Lithium For Energy Storage? – OilPrice.com
• Leading Copper Producer Announcing ‘Drastic Cuts’ – OilPrice.com
• Australian wheat exports ‘could fall to six-year low’ – Nidera – Agrimoney
• ICO sees – modest – recovery in world coffee output this season – Agrimoney
• China, Pakistan crop downgrades prop up cotton futures – Agrimoney
• Citi cuts iron ore price forecasts again on supply overhang – Reuters
• Manganese ore consumption declines further – Mineweb
• Iron and Steel: The depressive Super Cycle – Mineweb
• Diamonds – putting the sparkle back in investors’ eyes? – Mineweb
• What will happen if commodity prices remain low for the next 15 years? – Mineweb
• Why oil price may fall more but unlikely to stay low for long – SCMP
• Russia’s crisis has a golden lining – BNE Intellinews, Aris…very good read, Russia has immense gold reserves…
• China could become a major nuclear power sooner rather than later – World Finance
• Iron Ore ‘Not Yet at the Bottom’ as Citigroup Sees $20s Risk – Mineweb
• China’s rocky start bodes ill for mined commodities – Nikkei Asian Review
• Russia, Brazil seen leading world in wheat, soybeans – Nikkei Asian Review
• $380 Billion In Upstream Projects Delayed As Oil Keeps Tanking – OilPrice.com
• Shale billionaire says oil to rebound to $60 a barrel by year-end – Market Watch
• The $1 billion scramble to save the world’s chocolate supply – Market Watch
• Oil price rout forces companies to slash $170 billion in projects from 2016-2020 – Reuters
• Big consequences for corn, soybeans after winter wheat seedings – Reuters
• Crude oil falls as market braces for more Iranian oil – Reuters

 Capital Markets

• The Costs of Capital (article, one of series) and THE COST OF CAPITAL: MISUNDERSTOOD, MISESTIMATED AND MISUSED! (Presentation) – Value Walk, Damodaran…both Magnificent reads…
• Rating agencies warn on bank bail-in rules – FT.com
• US equity funds hit by outflows for second straight week – FT.com
• Growing Minority Sees British Pound Heading to Level of Thatcher Era – Bloomberg
• The Simple Truth About China’s Market – Bloomberg…check the P/E chart…
• Canadian bond yields reach new low amid speculation of rate cut – Globe and Mail
• Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa & Country-Specific Risks – Constantin Gurdgiev
• Pavlov’s Dogs Spot New Currency War – Marc to Market
• Could China’s Housing Bubble Bring Down The Global Economy? – Zero Hedge
• Will China’s currency crash the global economy? – Prospect
• Post-oil preparation on a global scale (Sovereign Wealth Funds) – World Finance…interesting read…
• Bear market looms as small-caps collapse – CBS
• US high yield sell-off: A long time coming – Euromoney
• Novo Banco bail-in may breach BRRD transfer rules – Euromoney
• Morgan Stanley Shakes Up Fixed-Income Division – WSJ
• More pain seen ahead for U.S. banks exposed to energy loans – Reuters
• Blocked trade: Banks suffer from the decline in global flows – Euromoney
• The do’s and don’ts of a market crash – Washington Post, Ritholtz…from last week, good read…

 Global Macro

• Here are the three biggest threats to the world right now – Telegraph
• Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy? – Guardian
• One big bank thinks the global economy is about to crash. What can the world powers do to stop it? – Quartz…make debt cheaper?…
• Global debt and its consumption of all economies – World Finance
• Shipping’s globalisation woes – FT.com
• Globalisation 2.0 — an optimistic outlook – FT.com
• Commodities collapse isn’t harbinger of doom – CapX
• Saudi Aramco IPO More About Geopolitics Than Finance – OilPrice.com
• Goldman Sachs settlement on mortgage-backed bonds to hit earnings – Reuters
• Amazon expands logistics reach with move into ocean shipping – Reuters
• Goldman to Pay Up to $5 Billion to Settle Claims of Faulty Mortgages – NY Times
• Morgan Stanley Heeds Investors With Cuts in Fixed-Income Division – NY Times
• Towards a global narrative on long-term real interest rates – VoxEU
• Climate change called world’s biggest economic risk – CBS
• China slowdown will hurt but not “end of it all”: HSBC – CNBC
• Exporting the Chinese Model – Project-Syndicate, Francis Fukuyama
• How to Save the World Bank – Project-Syndicate

 …and furthermore…

• John Maynard Keynes: Great Economist, Terrible Currency Trader – NY Times
• Push or Pull: Entrepreneurship Among Older Households – Constantin Gurdgiev
• Why Can’t Economists Be Trusted? Ask an Economist – Bloomberg
• The Long and Winding History of Encryption – The Atlantic
• Whatever happened to the march of the makers? – New Statesman
• The co-option of government by transnational organisations – Bill Mitchell
• The gig economy and its long-term effects – World Finance
• David Bowie’s bond legacy – World Finance
• Cost-benefit analysis of ‘leaning against the wind’: Are costs larger also with less effective macroprudential policy? – VoxEU
• How does the 1 percent capture the surplus? – RWER
• Labour market policy: Parts of the picture are missing – VoxEU
• The economic value of personal data for online platforms, firms and consumers – Bruegel
• The Boys Who Got to Remake an Economy – Slate…interesting read about Chile and the ‘Chicago Boys’…
• Dear Powerball Winner: Take Our Advice and Take the Annuity – NY Times
• ‘Made in China’: How does it affect our understanding of global market shares? – VoxEU
• Probably Everything You Need To Know About Bear Markets – The Irrelevant Investor
• When successful investors warn of a global market crash, we should all be nervous – New Statesman
• Economic forecasting is dead – Financial Post
• Retirement calculators mislead super fund members – Fairfax
• The truth behind courses on how to be a trader – Fairfax, Marcus Padley…good read…
• A lesson from China on the myth of the economic miracle – Washington Post
• Humanizing an Inhuman Future – Project-Syndicate
• Are Stars Aligning for Clean-Energy Financing? – Economonitor
• First was El Nino, now brace for La Nina – CNBC
• Brits lose taste for lager, turn to ale and tankards – CNBC