Macrobusiness Weekend Links 13-14 December

a work in progress over the weekend as I am strapped for time….

China

• How might a China slowdown affect the world? (Michael Pettis)
• China’s Slowdown Deepens as Factory Output Growth Wanes: Economy (Bloomberg)
• China Rate Swap Rises for a Second Week as Stimulus Bets Recede (Bloomberg)
• China’s Central Bank Balancing Act (Bloomberg)
• Cleaning up Energy Consumption in China: The Nuclear Question (Peterson Institute) …good charts…
• Caution over bubble as China urged to ease policy amid slowdown (SCMP)

Asia

•  The Risks of Complacency for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (Economonitor)

Europe

• Draghi to urge European leaders to reform to back ECB stimulus (Reuters)
• Ruble Slide to Record on Oil’s Drop Spurs Russia Intervention Bets (Bloomberg)
• Russian Trade Surplus Widens First Time in Three Months on Ruble (Bloomberg)
• Putting Deflation First (Eichengreen, Project-Syndicate)
• France drifts into deflation as ECB ‘pea-shooter’ falls short (AEP, Telegraph)
• Europe’s Misguided Investment Mania (Gros, Project-Syndicate)
• The European Union Lags on Basel III Banking Reforms (Peterson Institute)
• Rebalancing the EU-Russia-Ukraine gas relationship (Bruegel) …good read…
• Central and eastern Europe: uncertain prospects of economic convergence (Bruegel)
• It’s Baaack: Looming Greek Elections Threaten To Re-ignite the Euro Crisis (Economonitor)
• Italy hit by general strike against labour reforms (FT.com)

United Kingdom

• George Osborne will have to raise taxes to hit deficit targets, warns S&P (Telegraph)…the way S&P handles this may provide a sighter on how they will handle Australia…
• The Bank of England has missed its opportunity for greater transparency (Telegraph)
• George Osborne Needs to Tell Voters What Will Be Cut and When (Blanchflower, Peterson Institute)
• London should break free from Little England (FT.com)

United States

• After years of doubts, Americans turn more bullish on economy (Reuters)
• Gross Says Fed May Become ‘Dovish’ as Oil Prices Plunge (Bloomberg)
• Inequality and the American Child (Stiglitz, Project-Syndicate)
• The Joy of Growth (Ritholtz, Bloomberg)
• Krugman Gets the Big Picture Right (Bloomberg)
• Detroit emerges from nation’s largest municipal bankruptcy (LA Times)
• Insurers Use Deals to Avoid as Much as $100 Billion in Taxes (NY Times)
• The Vanishing Male Worker: How America Fell Behind (NY Times)
• US budget battle shows Wall St still toxic (FT.com)

Americas

• Venezuela’s Got $21 Billion. And Owes $21 Billion (Bloomberg)
• Falling oil threatens Canada’s bulletproof banking system (Market Watch)…does it threaten Australia’s…..
• CMHC to hike issuer fees and mortgage rates could follow (Financial Post)
• Why the Bank of Canada’s next move on interest rates may be a cut (Financial Post)
• Company stores trap Mexican farmworkers in a cycle of debt (LA Times)
• Bank of Canada provides ‘forward confusion’ about state of housing market (Financial Post)..the Canadians are our twin, only more closely integrated into a larger economy…

Us and the Kiwis

•  China Communications Construction in A$953m John Holland deal (SCMP)…with a 457 quota?…
• Pacific Basin Shipping sells assets in Australia (SCMP)
• Hockey eats humble pie as government plays for time (Fairfax)…post a bariatric sleeve could he eat that much?…
• Leighton sells John Holland in $1.15b deal (Fairfax) …another national asset sold just in time to send infrastructure spending margins elsewhere…
• Eyes on the prize: would-be PM Bill Shorten (Fairfax) …gloss aplenty, substance?…
• The impact of cheaper oil sinks in for Australia (Fairfax)
• John Viscariello says battling big boys takes it toll (Fairfax)…good read…
• Take a chill pill and go have a confident Christmas (Fairfax) …Pascoemeter does Christmas…
• After the bad news, the government promises to talk a lot more (The Conversation)...I suspect the telling will be the other way around…
• Murray pushes for fewer super tax breaks but change is unlikely (The Conversation)

Capital Markets

• Oil Rot Spreading in Credit  (Bloomberg)
• Why Swaps Matter (Bloomberg)
• Crude rout hits stocks; safe-haven assets sought (Reuters)
• Don’t Repeal Swaps Push-Out Requirements (Section 716 of Dodd-Frank) (Peterson Institute)
• TLTRO spoils Christmas holidays at the ECB (Bruegel) …good read…
• Oil crash is not the biggest story in global markets right now (Financial Post) …yep, US Treasuries are saying something too…

Commodities

• Oil plunges to new five-year lows as IEA cuts demand outlook (Reuters)
• Record Oil Tankers Sailing to China Amid Stockpiling Signs (Bloomberg)
• Modi Wants More Diamonds Direct From Mines in Putin Proposal (Bloomberg) …Russia is a good place to get them…
• CGN Power Listing Taps into Expected Nuclear Sector Growth (Caixin)
• OPEC ‘powerless’ to halt oil slump without other producers’ help, warns former president (Financial Post)
• Oil price fall sparks market turmoil (FT.com)

Global Macro

• China Uses Development Bank Push to Become Banker to Emerging Markets (Caixin) …this is precisely what China will become…
• Why is Corruption More Prominent in Some Countries Than Others? (Economonitor)…or is it just better disguised?…
• Vinyl-record factories race to keep up with demand surge (Market Watch)
• The five best Wall Street trades of 2014 (Quartz)
• Charted: Adopting universal health coverage just makes economic sense (Quartz)
• Christine Lagarde warns US over IMF reform failings (FT.com)

And Furthermore…….

• Faster Growth Through Stronger Regulation (Project-Syndicate)
• How investors can play the war against ‘globesity’ (Financial Post)
• 122 Things Everyone Should Know About Investing and the Economy (Motley Fool)…worth a look…
• The Gift of Inside Information (NY Times)