Sunday Macro, 2 November 2014

China

• Rise and Fall of a Coal Boomtown in Shanxi Province (Caixin)
• Should Beijing raise subway fares? (Michael Pettis)
• Falling Bank Deposits Add to China Economy Warning Sign (Bloomberg)
• Bank of Japan’s Money Can’t Match China’s Engine (Pesek, Bloomberg)
• China tries to spur domestic consumption with new policies (WantChinaTimes)
• China cranks up efforts to boost infrastructure projects (World Finance)
• China’s Industrial Growth Slows More Than Expected As Major Banks See Increase In Defaults (IB Times)
• Australia, China eye concluding FTA talks (Global Times)
• China Buys Foreign Companies at a Record Pace (Bloomberg)
• China October Manufacturing Slows as Growth Pressure Deepens (Bloomberg)
• New policy boosts property market (Global Times)
• Door opens for global firms in futures trading (China Daily)
• China Said to Investigate Surge in Precious Metals Exports (Bloomberg)
• Show us the money: How corrupt Chinese official’s 200m yuan stash might look (SCMP)
• Beijing wants tycoons to take action, not just pay lip service (SCMP)
• China’s shadow banking market third-largest in the world (SCMP)
• Thirty-somethings leading China’s fox hunt fugitive chase (SCMP)…go you good things…

Asia

• Last Chance for Japan? (Stephen Roach, Project-Syndicate)
• Tsunami evacuees caught in $30 billion Japan money trap (Reuters)
• 5 QUESTIONS ABOUT JAPAN’S UNEXPECTED STIMULUS MEASURES (WSJ)
• Japan’s pension giant to double share purchases (Japan Times)
• No prospect for TPP breakthrough at APEC: U.S. (Japan Times)
• Demand From Japan Pension’s Fund Could Cap Treasury Yields (WSJ)
• The Bank of Japan totally rocked global markets this morning (Quartz)
• Japan’s latest economic stimulus exposes its dirty debt secret (Fortune)

Europe

• Optimizing the Eurozone (Koichi Hamada, Project-Syndicate)
• Russia may resume gas supply next week if Ukraine pays $2.2 billion – Gazprom (Reuters)
• Europe won’t recognise vote in eastern Ukraine, Merkel tells Putin (Reuters)
• Whither Europe’s Banks after the Stress Test? (Peterson Institute)
• Why is Switzerland Voting on Its Gold Holdings? (WSJ)
• Ruble Takes No Comfort From Russia’s Bullish Move (WSJ)
• Ukraine’s election Good voters, not such good guys (Economist)
• How Germany Conquered Europe in 25 Years (Bloomberg)
• ECB Buys the Wrong Kind of Bonds (Bloomberg)
• EU lodges new WTO protest against Russia (EU Observer)
• Europe’s tax haven investments in Africa (EU Observer)
• The Putinisation of Europe (BNE)
• German Business Morale Weakens At Lowest Level In Almost 2 Years (IB Times)
• Few signs of fiscal reform (Gurdgiev, Cayman Financial Review)
• An unavoidable disaster – the lesson that no one seems willing to learn (Cayman Financial Review)
• Europe’s Deadly Fiscal Paralysis (Bloomberg)

United Kingdom

• Britain’s Last EU Straw? (Harold James, Project-Syndicate)
• BOE Sets 4.05% Bank Leverage Rule in Push to Boost Stability (Bloomberg)
• George Osborne tells Mark Carney to consider effects of leverage ratio rules (Telegraph)
• UK says will pay off part of World War One-era debt next year (Reuters)
• “Hunger, filth, fear and death”: remembering life before the NHS (NewStatesman)

United States

• In Private Papers, A More Candid Tim Geithner Speaks Out (ProPublica)
• Fed risks credibility, says official (FT.com)
• Mortgage rates are headed to 5 percent. But don’t blame the Fed. (Washington Post)
• Exploding wealth inequality in the United States (Vox)
• U.S. economy shows solid growth, but it’s about to be tested (LA Times)
• U.S. targets for-profit colleges that saddle students with high debt (LA Times)
• The U.S. recovery is frustrating — but it’s the envy of the advanced world (Washington Post)
• Consumer Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Drops as Incomes Cool (Bloomberg)
• US: Changes to Fed’s tool box point to tighter policy (Nordea)
• Americans Need Fuel-Cost Rescue as Spending Falls: Economy (Bloomberg)
• Why the U.S. Has Fallen Behind in Internet Speed and Affordability (NY Times)
• US Gasoline Prices Hit Their Lowest Levels In Four Years, And Consumers Are Feeling The Boost (IB Times)
• U.S. consumer spending falters; wage gains highest since 2008 (Reuters)
• U.S. consumer sentiment at highest since July 2007 (Reuters)
• How Long Can the Top 10% Households Prop Up the “Recovery”? (ContraCorner)
• Good Riddance To QE—-It Was Just Plain Financial Fraud (David Stockman)
• This is why the economy has fallen and it can’t get up (Washington Post, Wonkblog)

 Americas

• A lower loonie has helped manufacturers, and hurt almost everyone else (Financial Post)
• Rousseff’s Global Challenge: Do Better Than India (TheGlobalist)
• Headed into middle life, Alberta couple need budget help to tackle debt that is swallowing almost half their monthly income (Financial Post)
• The granddaddy of all Canadian-U.S. trade disputes is about to rear its ugly head again (Financial Post)

Capital Markets

• The role of corporate governance in strengthening banks (Vox) …a little something for the skeletons in the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena cupboard…
• True Grit: The Durable Low Volatility Effect (ETF.com)
• Regulating capital flows at both ends (Vox)
• China’s Yuan Plan Tested by Sole Gain Versus Dollar: Currencies (Bloomberg)
• Central Banker Hero Becomes Face of Failure in Swedish Tale (Bloomberg)…worth comparing with Australia…
• How well did the Fed’s stimulus work? (Japan Times)
• Japan Fires Another Shot in Global Currency War (WSJ)
• U.S. Fed awards most reverse repos in over four weeks (Reuters)
• Japan’s quantitative easing A bigger bazooka (Economist)
• High-Speed Traders Avoid Low-Speed Website (Matt Levine, Bloomberg)
• Russia’s drastic rate hike bought the ruble about five minutes of respite (Quartz)
• Fed looks toward debate on raising rates as quantitative easing ends Washington Post)
• The worst possible case for the worst possible idea, the gold standard (Washington Post)
• Shift in Quality Spectrum Argues We’ve Entered Later Innings of Bull Market (FinancialSense)
• Gold Prices in the Post-QE World (FinancialSense)
• Stress tests and TLAC will transform bank funding markets (Euromoney)
• Dollar-equity correlation conjures up memories of dotcom boom (Euromoney)
• ECB-Fed divergence triggers corporate hedging (Euromoney)
• Brazilian real troubles far from over (Euromoney)
• The Fed’s Term Deposit Facility comes of age (SoberLook)
• Distinguishing the Fed’s securities purchases from monetary expansion (SoberLook)
• The OTC market gets a regulation shake-up (World Finance)
• Robots are killing off Wall Street’s traders (World Finance)
• Global Shadow Banking Assets Reached Record $75T In 2013: Financial Stability Board (IB Times)
• Has quantitative easing worked in the US? (BBC)
• Bank shares surge as new rules on capital prove less strict than feared (Guardian)
• Enhancing Financial Stability by Improving Culture in the Financial Services Industry (William Dudley, NY Fed) ..talks the talk..
• The hidden warning over world trade in the ECB’s stress tests (MarketWatch)
• Alan Greenspan, Former Fed Chair, Goes for the Gold (CNBC)
• Market Masters: How To Manage An Iron Condor Trade (SeeItMarket)
• Next Stop For The Yuan’s Global Journey: Canada, Middle East (Gulf Business)
• The impact of liquidity regulation on banks (pdf) (BIS)
• Bank of Japan opts for another dose of shock and awe (FT.com)

Commodities

• Energy Journal: Oil Market Deafened by Saudi Silence (WSJ)
• Not All Easy Money is Good for Gold (WSJ)
• Goldman Sachs Cuts Thermal Coal Forecast Amid Cheap China Supply (Bloomberg)
• Gold Tumbles With Silver to Lowest Since 2010 on Dollar (Bloomberg)
• Beef King Sees Record Rally Extended as Ranchers Struggle (Bloomberg)
• Lower crude oil price in the US does not imply oversupply (Soberlook)
• Gas Prices Will Dip Below $3 Nationally This Weekend (Time)
• Unseasonably low Asian LNG prices trap volumes in Europe (Platts) (Video)
• Markets feel the uncertainty over China’s coal import regulations (Platts) (Video)
• No need for panic over oil price plunge, OPEC chief says (Platts)
• Shale Boom Redraws Oil Routes as Alaskans Ship to Korea (Bloomberg)
• Commodity Markets Outlook (pdf) (World Bank)
• The Death Of Oil Is Highly Exaggerated (Seeking Alpha)
• Japan’s utilities set for windfall as oil prices slump (Interfax)
• Food security stocks and the potential collapse of the Bali Agreement (Economonitor)

Global Macro

• A 100-year perspective on sovereign debt composition in 13 advanced economies (Vox) …great look at comparative data….
• American-Made Financial Repression (Andrew Sheng, Xiao Geng, Project-Syndicate)
• A New Macroeconomic Strategy (Jeffrey D. Sachs, Project-Syndicate)
• Why Taxation Must Go Global (Wolfgang Schäuble, Project-Syndicate)
• Trial of former UBS executive dredges up Swiss banks’ shady past (Reuters)
• Why Inequality Matters (Bill Gates Review of Piketty)…worth a read…
• Reflections on the new ‘Secular Stagnation hypothesis’ (Larry Summers, Vox)
• Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances pdf (Peterson Institute)
• Sustainability of Public Debt in the United States and Japan pdf (Peterson Institute)
• The takeaway from six years of economic troubles? Keynes was right. (Kaletsky, Reuters)
• American Wellbeing Since 1979 (Brad DeLong, Project-Syndicate)
• A road map to the future for the auto industry (McKinsey)…interesting read…
• Notes on Easy Money and Inequality (Krugman, NY Times) …good read…
• Fed’s Williams: inflation targets work, but room for improvement (Reuters)
• How Americans fare on the ignorance index (Reuters)
• The Trend Every Nation on Earth Is Pouring Money Into (Market Oracle)
• The 13 scariest charts about our country and our world (Washington Post, Wonkblog)
• Why the Fed is giving up too soon on the economy (Washington Post)
• What the Bank of Japan’s stimulus shocker means for the global economy (Financial Post)
• Home prices since 1870: No price like home (Vox) …..well worth it….
• End of QE is whimper not bang (BBC)
• Adair Turner: The Consequences of Money Manager Capitalism (INET) (Video) …good interview…
• Great Graphic: Slowing of World Trade Growth and Globalization (Marc to Market)
• Why The Correction Didn’t Become A Crash (Seeking Alpha)
• Global House Price Index (IMF)
• Is central bank independence really such a brilliant concept? (Telegraph) ..this needs be asked, who does monetary policy serve?..
• US and China tighten in unison, and damn the torpedoes (Telegraph)
• Japan risks Asian currency war with fresh QE blitz (Telegraph)
• Bank of Japan’s surprise easing could kick-start economy, but clouds loom (Nikkei Asian review)
• Consensus sought with US on governance of Internet (China Daily)
• Currencies Flag More Volatility Ahead (Bloomberg)
• Cast aside the moral judgment and give debt the credit it deserves (FT.com)
• Demography ate my homework on an even cheaper yen (FT.com)
• Rein in self-regulated bodies (Financial Post)

And Furthermore…

• The bad news about the news (Brookings Institute) …wonderful read about the decline of journalism…
• China to buy 5,000 Russian air-to-air missiles: Japanese report (WantChinaTimes)
• I see debt people: 10 scary economic charts for Halloween (Quartz) …yuck…
• Some aging Baby Boomers will upsize, not downsize, if they move at all, poll finds (Washington Post)
• Climate change: Lessons for our future from the distant past (Vox)
• India-China Border Standoff: High in the Mountains, Thousands of Troops Go Toe-to-Toe (WSJ) …could have some implications….
• Self-imposed corporate regulations control workers but choke productivity (Bill Mitchell)
• Virgin Galactic spaceship crashes during California test flight (Reuters)
• Pigs Fly: Millennials Finally Embrace Stocks (Time)
• People who have their kids after 35 are happiest (Quartz)
• Economics Progresses One Funeral at a Time (Ritholtz, Bloomberg)
• Child poverty in the U.S. is among the worst in the developed world (Washington Post)
• Wealth inequality in America: It’s worse than you think (Fortune)
• The Globalization of Caviar (NY Times)
• Younger adults choosing to rent, not to own (CBS)
• ‘Mortgage to lease’ plan may help families in severe debt (Irish Independent)….the debtor as serf…
• Why Ayn Rand is still relevant (and dangerous) (NewStatesman)
• The pioneers of global gentrification (Eurozine) …good read…
• Why Keynes is Important Today (INET)
• Marcello de Cecco: Two Hundred Years of Politics and High Finance (INET) (Good series of video interviews)
• The Roots of the Islamic State’s Appeal (Brookings Institute)
• Economics hijackers could do with a history lesson (The Conversation)
• The Top-Earning Dead Musicians Of 2014 (Forbes)
• Chelsea and Beyond: How the Rich Will Destroy Soccer (TheGlobalist)…it isn’t just soccer, either…

Girt by Sea

• China escalates Fox Hunt by freezing forex accounts (AFR)
• Skyscraper Boom in Second-Largest Australian City Flags Glut (Bloomberg)
• Do the crime, do the time? Not if you’re a banker in Australia (Phil Soos, The Conversation)
• Auctioneer slams A Current Affair (Fairfax)
• The tax carve-up (AFR)
• Fears stretched investors may destabilise housing market (Fairfax)
• The risks of Chinese economic containment (AFR) 
• Our ageing population not necessarily bad news (Fairfax)
• Government in a rush to make the wrong decision on submarines (The Conversation)
• Julia Gillard’s conduct as lawyer ‘questionable’, Bruce Wilson and Ralph Blewitt should be charged, counsel says (Fairfax)
• House rules to help the kids (AFR)
• Triguboff puts $10b price tag on Meriton empire (ABC)
• NAB continues Australian bank form of blowing cash overseas (ABC)…good piece, Australian banks have issues once they move away from the politico-housing complex here…
• Our economic policies are stuck in old Australia (ABC)
• Raise the GST? No thanks. Here’s five better ways to fix Australia’s finances (Guardian) …not a dud idea amongst them…
• Tony Abbott’s call for GST reform smacks of hypocrisy (Greg Jericho, Guardian)
• Will Murdoch’s great unwashed youths rise up? (ABC)
• Low-end buyers shut out of Fishermans Bend (Fairfax)
• The forgotten people, Victoria’s 1 million renters (Fairfax)
• ‘Sick and wrong’ – former NSW premier calls for ACT donation ban (Fairfax)
• High mining wages could affect safety, industrial lawyer warns (Fairfax)

You gotta ask yourself…..

• 7 countries where Americans can study at universities, in English, for free (or almost free) (Washington Post) …all European, all worth a look, all far better value than Australia too….