Sunday Macro, October 26

China

• Ministry Said to Propose Local Gov’ts Issuing Bonds to Cover Debts – Caixin
• Three major nations absent as China launches World Bank rival in Asia – Reuters
• Why China No Longer Wants Cheap Coal – Peterson Institute
• How China plans to rewrite the rules of solar energy – China Economic Review
• CHINA’S BANKING: HOW REFORMS LOST MOMENTUM (Pdf) – HKIMR
• THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT CRISIS 2007-2014: WHEN CHINA’S FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FALTERED (Pdf) – HKIMR
• China’s capital defences have sprung a major leak – Reuters
• China’s slowdown is secular, not cyclical – Gavyn Davies, FT.com
• Concerns remain over Chinese rival to Asian Development Bank – FT.com
• China property decline continues – FT.com
• China seen staying away from interest rate cuts, stay on reform wagon – SCMP
• J.P. Morgan Discussed Pitfalls to ‘Princeling’ China Hiring in 2006 – WSJ
• Pace of home price falls ease in China as market shows signs of stabilising – SCMP
• China Launches AIIB to Rival World Bank Without US Allies After Pressure from Washington – IB Times
• The Canary in China’s Central Bank – Foreign Policy

Asia

• Will Japan Bet the Farm on Agricultural Protectionism? – Peterson Institute
• Japan Minister Aide’s Bondage Bar Spree Adds to Abe Scandals – Bloomberg …you have to admire the chutzpah of the man…
• A Future with a Low-Carbon Asia – Economy Watch
• Quiet critic of Kuroda’s ‘monetary shamanism’ turns up the volume – Japan Today

United Kingdom

• Angry Cameron attacks €2.1bn EU surcharge – FT.com
• David Cameron demands emergency talks over EU budget – Telegraph
• UK Government relaxes tough Chinese visa rules – Telegraph
• Britain’s dismal drift towards Brexit – New Statesman
• UK economic growth slows to 0.7% – Guardian…maybe the only thing the Poms really grew was house prices…
• Britain will have to pay extra €2.1bn into EU budget by December – Guardian
• Rapid UK economic growth slows slightly in third quarter – Reuters
• Britain slams EU budget demand – Reuters
• The deficit will kill the property bubble – FT.com

Europe

• ECB Set to Fail 25 Banks in Review, Draft Document Shows – Bloomberg
• Europe’s Brush with Debt – Project-Syndicate
• Europe’s Fiscal Wormhole – Project-Syndicate
• Why Madrid’s poor fear Goldman Sachs and Blackstone – Reuters……there is more in the pipeline on this issue……
• 73 Swiss banks ask U.S. to revise proposed tax amnesty deals – Reuters
• Here’s How the European Bank Stress Tests Work – WSJ
• Public Outrage Mounts Against Hungary’s Plan to Tax Internet Use – WSJ
• Ukraine, Russia and the West – Grennes&Strazds, Economonitor…good read…
• FINANCIAL FRAGILITY OF EURO AREA HOUSEHOLDS (Pdf) – ECB ….give them money is the meme…
• Europe’s economic and political future will be determined in the next few days – Kaletsky, Reuters
• Spat over LNG terminal symptomatic of Baltic struggle to counter Russian influence – BNE
• Renzi stirs up EU row ahead of eurozone meeting – EU Observer
• Europe’s fiscal wormhole – Bruegel
• EU’s Juncker Pledges Investment Plan For Jobs – IB Times
• The Conflict Between Germany and the E.C.B. That Threatens Europe – NY Times
• Cold War Banker to Putin Billionaires Walks Sanction Wire – Bloomberg…good read….

United States

• A Mismatch: Close to Macroeconomic Goals, Far from Monetary Policy – Bullard, St Louis Fed
• The world’s best market timers: the Federal Reserve – MarketWatch
• Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed’s return to normal – Reuters
• Fed lays out scenarios for 2015 bank stress tests – Reuters
• Mortgage rates sink; 30-year averages 3.92%, Freddie Mac says – LA Times
• OCC on Leveraged-Lending Push: Banks Have ‘Room for Improvement’ – WSJ
• What Yellen didn’t say – RWER
• Years After the Market Collapse, Sidelined Borrowers Return – NY Times
• Americans give up enormous amounts of vacation time – CBS
• It Shouldn’t Hurt This Much to Get a Mortgage – Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg

Americas

• Canadians may be ‘buying too much car’: Moody’s sounds alarm on bank auto loans – Financial Post
• Bank of Canada bids farewell to forward guidance, leaving the market to work things out on its own – Financial Post
• Argentina’s energy sweeteners won’t mask bitter taste of state controls – Reuters
• U.S. court hearing over Citi processing of Argentine bond payment delayed – Reuters
• In Brazil’s Election, a Stark Vote on the Nation’s Economy – NY Times

Terra Incognita

• Operation budget 2014 moves into nip and tuck stage – Guardian
• Australia’s trade negotiating strategy fundamentally flawed – The Conversation
• How economics lost its identity in Australia, and how to get it back – The Conversation
• Inside China’s ‘Fox Hunt’ anti-corruption crackdown – AFR
• How Chinese fortunes are hidden in Australia – AFR
• Chinese bribes stashed in Sydney houses – AFR
• Malcolm Turnbull’s star rises as Tony Abbott revels in ministers’ jockeying – Fairfax
• The risks of falling house prices – The Kouk, Adelaide Review
• Call on CommBank Royal Commission disappointing and shallow – Fairfax
• If I had $1 Million Dollars… – The Idiot Tax
• Robust housing starts offer hope for Australian recovery – Nikkei Asian review
• Australians confess to stashing $1b in assets offshore – Fairfax
• NZ trade deficit widens as lower log and dairy prices weigh on exports – NZ Herald

Capital markets

• EUROPEAN BANKS AND THE GLOBAL BANKING GLUT – Piera
• The Ultimate Carry Trade: U.S. Banks Buying Treasuries – Chandler, Financial Sense
• China Presses on with Renminbi Internationalization – Economy Watch
• Macroprudential Regulation – What, Why and How? (Pdf) – Norges bank ….good, but heavy, read…
• Investors Are Eager for African Sovereign Debt, Despite Plenty of Risks – NY Times
• “Mensch tracht, und Gott lacht” – what’s the best guidance on monetary policy? – Vox
• Official Financial Flows, Capital Mobility, and Global Imbalances (Pdf) – Peterson Institute…very thorough, interesting…
• If banks are worried about not being regulated tightly enough, something’s wrong – Telegraph
• IMF Introduces 0.05% Interest Rate Floor For SDR Loans and Reserves – IB Times

Commodities

• China’s grip on rare earths supply loosens as more overseas mines start – SCMP
• Glasenberg’s Iron Barbs Losing Sting Amid Coal Expansion – Bloomberg
• Wheat Crop Seen Falling Short in Australia on Frost, Hail Damage – Bloomberg
• Iron ore giants win first round in global battle but knockout unlikely – Reuters
• Iron Ore Glut Spurs Drop in China Output, Goldman Says – Bloomberg
• Commodities: A partial pump primer – FT.com …very good read…
• Natural Gas: The New Gold – IMF Direct
• The LNG boom will push gas prices up – is the economic boost worth the cost? – Greg Jericho, Guardian
• Workers at Antamina, Peru’s top copper mine, to strike – union – Reuters
• Vietnam buyers renege on corn, soymeal deals as prices sink: traders – Reuters

Global Macro

• THE GREAT MORTGAGING: HOUSING FINANCE, CRISES, AND BUSINESS CYCLES (Pdf) – HKIMR….very good read….
• SAFE ASSETS, SECULAR STAGNATION, AND FINANCIAL REPRESSION – Piera
• A New Macroeconomic Strategy – Project-Syndicate
• Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future? – Vox
• The TPP’s Missing Ingredient – Project-Syndicate
• Islamic State making millions despite U.S. bid to halt money flow – LA Times
• Tackling the world’s affordable housing challenge … McKinsey ….interesting…
• Wall Street Is One Sick Puppy—–Thanks To Even Sicker Central Banks – David Stockman
• The new challenge to market democracies – Brookings Institute
• World’s city dwellers paying out $650bn more than they can afford – FT.com
• The jingle that sounds the road to economic recovery – Gillian Tett, FT.com
• We are now a giant step closer to debunking the myth of ‘too big to fail’ – Telegraph
• Why Weren’t Alarm Bells Ringing? (Krugman review ofMartin Wolfe’s new book) – New York Review of Books …well worth a read…

And furthermore

• Inheritance and Inequality – Project-Syndicate
• Income Inequality Doesn’t Harm Upward Mobility, Scholars Argue – IB Times …probably even does good…..
• HOW TO SHAPE ECONOMIC POLICY WHEN WE MOVE BEYOND GDP – Piera
• Five Reasons Not to Fear Deflation: Which Ones Make Sense? – Ed Dolan, Economonitor
• Why Should Europe (or Anyone Else) Fear Deflation? – Ed Dolan, Economonitor
• Russia and West Grapple With Alternate Realities – WSJ
• The world’s biggest economic problem – Economist
• Big Four Economic Indicators Show Possible Rollover – Financial Sense
• The Moral Economy of Debt – Project-Syndicate
• The Decline of Newspapers, in Four Charts – Brookings Institute
• The Big Bank Backlash Begins – ProPublica
• Ukraine’s Vote, Russia’s Fate – Project-Syndicate
• The End of Pregnancy: And the inevitable rise of the artificial womb. – Slate
• Ukraine’s SlowDescent Into Madness – Slate….very good read. Ukraine is a failed state….
• New businesses worm their way into the market  – Vancouver Sun
• Self-driving cars will not help the drinking driver – The Conversation….then what is the point of them?…..
• Organised Hypocrisy on a Monumental Scale: Economic Occupation of the West Bank – London Review of Books
• Putin Accuses U.S. of Blackmail, Weakening Global Order – Bloomberg
• Leave Putin His Scraps – World Affairs
• Bitcoin Payments Accepted for Surgery at Major Polish Hospital in Warsaw – IB Times

Video ……..

• China’s economic foundation shaken by drop in home prices (Video) – Reuters
• Home prices up, again, but with a catch – (Video) – Reuters
• Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States (Video) – Peterson Institute
• European electric utilities still struggling with renewable revolution (Video) – Platts
• The Financialization of Life (video) – The Real News ..one of a series, worth a look…
• George Soros Talks Euro Problems In New CNBC Interview (Video) – ValueWalk 
• Broadcast of the Valdai Club’s 11th Annual Meeting. Closing Session – (circa 3 hours) YouTube, Valdai discussion club. Will not be to everyone’s taste, but Putin speaks (translated) at length, in considerable detail, on a range of subjects. How many other global leaders would/could put such a narrative in that sort of format?…..
• The Lost Sheep – Adrian Muncie

Le dénouement

• Vampire Porn – Slate ….was belief in efficient markets just another vinegar stroke? …