US Economy

There are two main reasons that the US is not in recession.

By Stephen Halmarick, CBA Chief Economist: Key Points: The US FOMC has, as widely expected, resumed tightening and increased the Fed Funds target rate by 25bp to a 5.25%-5.5% range.

This is something to watch closely.

I am a fan of predicting the future of politics and geopolitics from what is happening in today’s economy.

The US credit crunch is unceasing.

Goldman has a crack. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in June (mom sa).

Barclays with the note.

The US credit crunch rolls on with the use of Fed emergency funds at new highs: This suggests ongoing deposit outflows though they keep being massaged out by seasonal adjustments.

This argument might be applied to Peter Dutton in Australia.

This week’s US banking data indicates a material weakening in growth ahead.

The US credit crunch is not getting better.

Steven Blitz at TSLombard.

Credit Suisse with the wrap. On Tuesday, the BLS will release its May CPI report.Our work indicates thatYoYinflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June (July12 release).

Goldman has cut its US recession probabilities.

Emergency use of Fed facilities continues to climb: Amusingly, the Fed transformed further deposit flight into huge inflows via seasonal adjustments: Meanwhile, credit flows tell the tale.

Morgan Stanley with the note.

As the AI bubble in equities drives late-cycle economic activity, the US Federal Reserve will have to resume rate hikes.

The US credit crunch rolls on.

The excellent Stephen Blitz at TSLombard.

Last week, Fed emerging funding facilities were still being pumped: Because deposits continue to flow out of banks: Lending data is lagged by another week.