TS Lombard with the note. US fiscal spending has begun to fall. This is one of several key planks in 2023 growth resilience.
Normal metrics to assess the 2024 economy is what we have but could prove less relevant to the outcome.
This may very well be a year when extreme non-economic factors (war and politics) drive the budget, the Fed and, in turn, the economy — rather than the usual reverse order of cause and effect.