Previewing US CPI

Morgan Stanley with the note.

Core inflation moves sideways in December, at 0.28%M (vs 0.28%M prior, and 0.2%M consensus). A reading in line with our forecast confirms the gradual deceleration that started in 2Q23, and implies an increase of 0.25%M for core PCE vs 0.06%M in October. Energy rebounds boosting headline– we expect 0.29%M in December (headline CPI NSA index: 306.593).

Note, however, that the upcoming annual CPI revision might change the overall picture so far. Last year, 2022 inflation prints were revised up, showing much weaker disinflation in the last quarter of the year. This year revision will be released on Friday, February 9.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.