US Economy

From the SMH and my favourite strategist, Jeremy Grantham: Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the US Federal Reserve is killing the recovery of the world’s biggest economy and the ”next bust will be unlike any other”.

By Peter Schiff, cross-posted from Euro-Pacific Capital The red flags contained in the national and global headlines that have come out thus far in 2014 should have spooked investors and economic forecasters.

The S&P rallied 11 points last night as we saw the first real sign of Spring thaw in US data. The Empire State manufacturing index bounced in March: The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index ofcurrent activity, increased from a reading of ‐6.3 in February to 9.0 this month, nearing its reading in January (see Chart).

From the FOMC overnight: $10 billion taper, weather to blame for slowing, the forward guidance for employment for 6.5% unemployment rate tightening trigger was dropped but forecast employment gains were raised and so was the expected cash rate to 1 percent at the end of 2015 and 2.25 percent by the end of 2016.

Find below Westpac’s Elliot Clarke on the prospects of taper next.

From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke comes the below interesting update on the US housing market: This week we return to familiar territory: the housing market.

From Calculated Risk, here is an excerpt from his monthly assessment of the BLS report: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of 139,000 private sector payroll jobs in February.

Well…I am sorry to be the bearer of bad new on Ukraine but it appears, well and truly, that markets have cast it aside like chaff blown across the steppe.

The nutters at Zero Hedge said it best with their Friday headline: Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss That about sums it up but let’s go through the data in detail and try to make some sense of a confusing evening!

US data was again disappointing last night and markets surged  back on taper taper.

Wolf Richter cross-posted from Naked Capitalism.

Fresh from the excellent Elliott Clarke at Westpac: Throughout 2013, we highlighted the usefulness of a relatively new quarterly credit report for the US economy produced by the NY Federal Reserve.

In the ongoing drama that is taper, today’s chapter goes to the doves. US data was again weak. The Case Shiller House Price Index (chart from Calculated Risk): Data through December 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S.

Was it the G20 growth pledge?

Transcripts for FOMC meetings in the later months of 2008 became available Friday evening and, boy, there are some howlers!

From Westpac’s Elliot Clarke comes an interesting update on US public finances following release of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) revised long-term fiscal forecasts: The CBO released its latest update on the US’ long-term fiscal position in early February.

US data was mixed overnight but there was enough good news to reassure markets that weather is the primary cause of the US slowdown and to offset China’s growing problems.

Readers will know that I’ve held the view for six months that the US housing market is going to slow.

The FOMC minutes last night were definitive: In their discussion of the path for monetary policy, most participants judged that the incoming information about the economy was broadly in line with their expectations and that a further modest step down in the pace of purchases was appropriate.

US data is still lousy and now everyone, everywhere is blaming the weather.

More atrocious US data on Friday night.

From Westpac’s Elliot Clark today: Last night saw newly-installed Fed Chair Janet Yellen make her first trip to Capitol Hill for the semi-annual testimony to Congress.