US Economy

1

How quickly will the Trump boom slow?

Via Westpac: FOMC Chair Powell appeared before the Senate’s Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs overnight in part one of his Semiannual report to Congress. Abstracting from the frequent political focus of the Committee, Chair Powell’s message on the economy was clear: “the FOMC believes that – for now – the best way forward

22

Paul Kelly develops Trumpian hysteria

Paul Kelly has developed Trumpian hysteria: Donald Trump’s quest to become a man of destiny has scaled new peaks with his aspiration for collaborative ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, his public repudiation of US intelligence agencies in favour of Putin’s assurances, and his eclipse of the 70-year-old system of US global leadership buttressed by alliance systems.

1

US Q2 earnings set to boom

Good breakdown by Credit Suisse (via the Wall Street Journal) on where the US earnings growth is coming from: Oil is good for a small set of companies, bad for the rest. But unless the oil price falls the earnings growth will be repeated in 3Q and 4Q. Taxes are one-off but set to continue

0

The rude health of US corporate debt markets

From Moody’s: Outstandings of Rated U.S. Corporate Bonds Dip from 2018’s First to Second Quarter According to Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, second-quarter 2018’s outstandings of Moody’srated U.S. corporate bonds excluding ABS and MBS rose by 3.3% year-over-year to $7.212 trillion, which was a slight 0.6% under first-quarter 2018’s record high of $7.259 trillion. The

1

US jobs preview

The monthly US jobs preview Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 144,000 to 212,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. The

8

Where will trade wars end?

Via Morgan Stanley: We no longer doubt that the US administration’s proposals signal the direction of trade policy. An escalatory cycle of protectionist actions, not just rhetoric, has begun and will continue. It’s another reason why pressure should continue in risk markets, which now must eat their US policy vegetables after feasting on dessert in

1

BofAML: US dollar to the moon!

Via Bloomie comes David Woo, head of global rates and foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America: “I’ve never been this bullish the U.S. economy in 20 years I’ve been doing this,” the strategist said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio, citing the effects of the tax overhaul on corporate behavior. “That’s the fundamental story

0

How will the trade war impact the US economy?

Via Westpac today: Expectations for business investment through late-2017 and 2018 have been abnormally strong on the back of fiscal reform. Currently they sit at or above the level seen in the post-GFC recovery and, before that, the heady days of pre-crisis expansion. These expectations have subsequently been franked by the activity data, with the

4

US house prices might be getting frothy again

Last night saw the twin release of US consumer confidence figures and the Case Shiller House Price index. To say these are highly correlated is an understatement with the full transformation of a shelter consumer good that depreciates into a financial asset that has been turned into an ATM. Anyway, the April house price indicies are in

3

How far can the US economy run?

Via the always good value Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates. The culprit will be the Fed: “Cycles die, and you know how they die?” Rosenberg told the Inside ETFs Canada conference in Montreal on Thursday. “Because the Fed puts

3

When is the next US recession coming?

Via the AFR: A US recession could occur within the next two years according to former US bond trader Charlie Jamieson, who says the flattening of the bond yield curve is a signpost of possible trouble ahead. Speaking on a panel on global macro at Livewire Live 2018, Mr Jamieson, executive director at Jamieson Coote

1

When will the US economy fall off its fiscal cliff?

Some more good work from Damien Boey at Credit Suisse today: US inflation picks up a little further US headline CPI rose by 0.2% in May, taking year-ended headline inflation higher to 2.8% from 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose by 0.2% over the month, taking year-ended core inflation slightly higher to 2.2%

69

G7 screws the US pooch

While the world’s press is busy lapping up the anti-Trump hysteria post-G7, let’s stop and ask what did they expect? Via The Guardian: Donald’s Trump’s chief economic adviser said the US pulled out of a G7 communique because the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, “stabbed us in the back” and accused the leader of one America’s

6

All hail the US economy!

EUR fell Friday night and DXY rose: The ludicrous EUR long pulled back but nowhere near enough: AUD rallied with risk: EM currencies are still in trouble: AUD shorts were roughly unchanged: Gold fell: WTI was smashed but Brent held on. The spread is huge now as shale oil floods the US but pipeline bottlenecks

1

US jobs preview

Courtesy of Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 155,000 to 220,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. The BLS

6

Inside the Fed’s risks

Via Elliot Clarke at Westpac: The minutes of a FOMC meeting typically hold little significance for the market. In this instance however, there is cause for a closer look. This is because the May minutes provide a clear assessment of the risks that the US currently faces, particularly with respect to inflation; financial conditions and

2

Young Americans left behind in post GFC recovery

By Leith van Onselen The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) has released research examining “Home Prices, Housing Wealth and Home Equity Extraction”, which reveals that US home prices has finally rebounded above their pre-GFC peak: Home ownership has returned to is long-run (lower) ‘normal’ level: But like in Australia, has collapsed for younger

0

US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 191,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April (with a range of estimates between 145,000 to 255,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.0%. The BLS reported 103,000

11

Echoes of the Mining GFC

DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked. I reckon there’s another 5% in this move for both as the mad EUR long unwinds: AUD held on against DMs: EMs are breaking: Gold is at the brink: Oil looks toppy: Base metals are fighting a losing battle: Big miners too: EM stocks are breaking: EM

3

Why the Petroyuan is no big deal

Via UBS: RMB-denominated oil contracts began trading for the first time in Shanghai on March 26. We believe that in the long term this will ultimately change how oil is traded globally, create a Petroyuan currency flow, increase the role of the RMB as a global trading currency, and compel investors to up their allocations to Chinese financial assets.

8

When will the US lead us into the next recession?

Via Moody’s: Who to Blame for the Flattening Yield Curve The U.S. economy is humming along, but we believe that the economy will weaken and likely fall into recession sometime in 2020 as the boost from the fiscal stimulus fades. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of the next recession, but the U.S. bond

10

US corporate tax cuts fuel share buybacks, not investment

By Leith van Onselen Treasurer Scott Morrison has confirmed that the Turnbull Government will persist with its policy of progressively reducing the tax rate for all companies, claiming they are essential to fuel investment, jobs and wages growth. From The AFR: “We’ve had significant success already in delivering tax cuts for small and medium-sized businesses

7

Stocks go boom as Trump zips it

All he needed to do was shut up. DXY up: AUD down across the board: Gold off: Oil held on: Base metals were mixed: Big miners rallied: EM stocks too: And junk: The Treasury curve flattened: And bund curve: Stocks took off: Trump managed to shut up for a day and China announced some minor