Categories
US Economy
The soft-landing case revisited
Goldman has cut its US recession probabilities.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
1
US credit crunch continues
Emergency use of Fed facilities continues to climb: Amusingly, the Fed transformed further deposit flight into huge inflows via seasonal adjustments: Meanwhile, credit flows tell the tale.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
1
X-date boom or bust?
Morgan Stanley with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
1
US rate hikes to continue
As the AI bubble in equities drives late-cycle economic activity, the US Federal Reserve will have to resume rate hikes.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
4
US credit crunch rolls on
The US credit crunch rolls on.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
US credit crunch worsens
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
X-date marks the recession
The excellent Stephen Blitz at TSLombard.
David Llewellyn-Smith
11 months ago
2
US credit crunches some more
Last week, Fed emerging funding facilities were still being pumped: Because deposits continue to flow out of banks: Lending data is lagged by another week.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
1
Druckenmiller: US plunging into recession
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
2
US inflation “supportive of pause” (and recession)
BofA is one of the better CPI trackers. More signs of disinflation The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was broadly in line with expectations. Headline CPI rose by 0.4% m/m (0.37% unrounded), which was roughly in line with our and consensus expectations.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
US inflation preview
Citi says hot.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
US credit crunch to intensify
The Fed released its Q1 SLOOS data last night.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
3
US bank stress continues
The week ending April 26 was better for the US bank crisis but it is nowhere near out of the woods given this data is still prior to First Republic.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
1
US jobs preview
Goldman with the guess. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 250k in April (mom sa), above consensus of+182k but a slowdown from the +345k average pace of the last three months.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
Inside broken small US banks
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
1
US already in recession?
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
1
Fed preview
From JPM.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
Uh oh. Fed needs to tighten into US credit crunch
Last week’s Fed update on bank credit showed ongoing pressures in the banking system.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
2
US grinds towards recession
US Q1 data was out last night.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
1
Previewing the Fed pause
Morgan Stanley is making sense to me because the Fed has not done enough yet to deliver its mandate unless the credit crunch does it for it.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
Debt-ceiling accident keeps getting closer
Goldman with the update.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
3
Debt-ceiling debacle upon us
Goldman with the update.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
3
Hedging a debt-ceiling debacle
Goldman with many of the same points I made yesterday.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
2
US debt-ceiling crisis closing in fast
Goldman on why the US debt limit crisis is coming faster than most expect.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
2
Small bank credit crunch lands on US economy
So says TSLombard.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 year ago
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