US Economy

The weirdo hanging around a Mar-a-Lago with an AK-47 appears to have done Donald Trump no good in polling.

The big one tonight is US inflation.

It appears the Kamala Harris polling honeymoon is over: It is across the board: Betting markets have Trump ahead again: Swing states are too close to call: All a bit odd given what is happening to oil.

TSLombard says 25bps.

Goldman sees a Harris victory now. Where things stand: Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by around 1.5pp in national polling averages and is very narrowly ahead in the swing state that would provide the winning electoral vote (currently this appears to be Pennsylvania).

Morgan Stanley with the note.

It’s still early days, and it’s still a honeymoon, but Kamala Harris is on a roll.

Democrats now have a handy lead in White House polling.

Goldman with the note. President Joe Biden exited the 2024 presidential race today (July21) and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

The news this morning is that POTUS Joe Biden will serve out his term but will NOT contest the Democratic nomination for the November election.

Here’s a thread for y’all on the failed assassination of Donald Trump.

Morgan Stanley with the note. We expect Core CPI inflation at 0.27% (0.2%M consensus, 3.5%Y), higher than May’s weak print but still the second lowest read this year.

Credit Agricole with the note.

Here is the full dissent by Justice Sonia Sotomayor from the overnight decision by the thoroughly partisan US Supreme Court to grant US Presidents immunity from prosecution while in office.

Morgan Stanley with the note.

After the conviction of Donald Trump on 34 counts of illegally silencing former prostitute Stormy Daniels, election odds have first swung away from Trump, then back to unchanged.

Goldman with the wrap of US betting markets.

Goldman is less dovish than some. nWe expect a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.61% (vs. 3.6% consensus). We expect a 0.37% increase in April headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.42% (vs. 3.4% consensus).

Goldman with the update.

Goldman with the note. We expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).

HSBC with the note.

The Market Ear with the latest equity positioning.

Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zenter has been good on the Fed in recent times.