Global Macro

By Leith van Onselen For more than a decade, the Productivity Commission (PC) has debunked the common myth that immigration can overcome population ageing. For example: PC (2005): “Despite popular thinking to the contrary, immigration policy is also not a feasible countermeasure [to an ageing population].

DXY and euro were both firm last night: Commodity currencies generally rebounded: Oil too: And base metals: Plus big miners: EM stocks are ripping.

DXY broke support and sank Friday night.

Morgan Stanley has come clear thinking today: Bottom line: We expect the DXY to break higher, led by JPY and commodity FX weakness.

Via Macquarie:  April PMI data suggests the manufacturing recovery is slowing, with worse performance from China and the US.

Via BofAML: Fearless VIX is pulling global equity risk down but its optimism is not universal The VIX dipped below 10 Monday, near a historic floor, as it has closed below 10 only nine days since 1990.

Jeremy Grantham’s latest: Oh, the good old days!

DXY was hammered in the past few days: It was largely a move in the euro post French election that did it.

The below charts do not pick up any movement from this morning’s French election results.

The USD was weak last night: Commodity currencies were weaker still: Gold was strong: Brent was hit: Base metals were savaged: Big miners mauled: EM stocks fell: High yield debt was suspiciously strong: US bonds were bid big: European spreads widened: And stocks faded.

Markets continue to ignore North Korea.

Cross-posted from Sinocism: The Trump-Xi Citrus Summit seems to have been fairly bland, as predicted in the April 4 newsletter.

By Leith van Onselen From the IMF Direct blog comes an interesting analysis of the declining share of income going to workers, which is being driven by automation and globalisation: After being largely stable in many countries for decades, the share of national income paid to workers has been falling since the 1980s.

From BT’s excellent Vimal Gor today: March was a volatile month during which the market’s obsession with ‘Trump-onomics’ continued to dominate.

From Macquarie:  Industry/manufacturing is a key sector for metals demand, and the PMIs are a timely indicator of its health.