Global Macro

DXY was firm last night: AUD rebounded against DMs for no obvious reason: And EMs: Gold was caned: Brent jumped on a UK pipeline shutdown: Base metals jumped on sagging Chinese credit.

DXY was firm Friday night: AUD just hung onto 75 cents: And was weak against EMs: AUD CFTC speculative positions rose slightly to still moderately long at 40k: Gold was soft: Brent was strong as US rigs added just two.

From the BofAML presser: A Year Ahead Forecast So Bullish, It’s Bearish BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research today issued a bullish macro outlook for 2018, calling for robust global economic growth, steady U.S.

DXY took off last night in some delayed response to US tax reform: That bashed AUD back into place: EM forex was mixed: But metals hated it.

Just a quick observation today as Japan released its October unemployment rate at 2.8%, way below supposed full employment.

From JP Morgan today on the US cycle: The prospects for the economy at the end of 2017 look about as favorable as they have at any point in this expansion.

Cross-posted from FTAlpahville: Dan Nixon from the BoE’s content and strategy division asks an important question this week regarding the connection between digital distraction and flailing productivity.

DXY was strong last night: AUD was soft: And weak against EMs: Gold jumped on another Korean missile.

DXY firmed overnight: AUD fell: And against EMs: Gold was firm: Brent eased: China caught up with base metals: And big miners: And EM stocks: And junk: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: Stocks held at the highs: The US is booming.

By Leith van Onselen Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University, has penned an excellent article in Project Syndicate debunking commonly used economic justifications for mass immigration: Standard economic theory tells us that net inward migration, like free trade, benefits the native population only after a lag.

By Leith van Onselen For more than a decade, the Productivity Commission has debunked the common myth that immigration can overcome population ageing. For example: PC (2005): “Despite popular thinking to the contrary, immigration policy is also not a feasible countermeasure [to an ageing population].

The MB Fund S&P500 long is the gift that just keeps giving.

Via Goldman: Our Top Trade recommendations reflect our Top Ten Market Themes for the year ahead.

Readers will know that I track the prices of global high yield debt every day: The recent deterioration in prices, and rise in yields, has not been huge but it has been sudden and such moves in junk are a good leading indicator for rising volatility in broader markets.

DXY was stable last night: AUD was flogged against DMs: And EMs: Gold eased: Brent too: Base metals fell: Big miners were dumped: EM stocks look very toppy indeed: Led by junk: US short-end rates keep rising: Though bunds were bid: And stocks pulled back: Two things going on.

By Leith van Onselen This site has frequently railed against the unfair treatment leveled at Australia’s Millennial generation.