Global Macro

Via Andy Xie recently and by popular request: Since the global financial crisis of 2008, all major economies have kept interest rates at or close to zero and maintained large fiscal deficits.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The price of bitcoin hit $17,000 late last year and – although the cryptocurrency has plunged since then – there are signs that an absence of regulation can hurt investors and trigger the next financial crisis.

By Leith van Onselen More than two years after the 7Eleven wages fraud scandal broke in Australia, the United States is undergoing a similar experience.

DXY firmed overnight: AUD surged on: It demolished EMs: Gold rose: Brent too: And base metals: But big miners fell: And EM stocks: Junk was OK: Treasuries were sold: Bunds too: Stocks fell: Four events of note.

DXY is off and running as we await the Fed: Weirdly, so is the AUD!

DXY was firm last night: AUD rebounded against DMs for no obvious reason: And EMs: Gold was caned: Brent jumped on a UK pipeline shutdown: Base metals jumped on sagging Chinese credit.

DXY was firm Friday night: AUD just hung onto 75 cents: And was weak against EMs: AUD CFTC speculative positions rose slightly to still moderately long at 40k: Gold was soft: Brent was strong as US rigs added just two.

From the BofAML presser: A Year Ahead Forecast So Bullish, It’s Bearish BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research today issued a bullish macro outlook for 2018, calling for robust global economic growth, steady U.S.

DXY took off last night in some delayed response to US tax reform: That bashed AUD back into place: EM forex was mixed: But metals hated it.

Just a quick observation today as Japan released its October unemployment rate at 2.8%, way below supposed full employment.

From JP Morgan today on the US cycle: The prospects for the economy at the end of 2017 look about as favorable as they have at any point in this expansion.

Cross-posted from FTAlpahville: Dan Nixon from the BoE’s content and strategy division asks an important question this week regarding the connection between digital distraction and flailing productivity.

DXY was strong last night: AUD was soft: And weak against EMs: Gold jumped on another Korean missile.

DXY firmed overnight: AUD fell: And against EMs: Gold was firm: Brent eased: China caught up with base metals: And big miners: And EM stocks: And junk: Treasuries were bid: Bunds too: Stocks held at the highs: The US is booming.