Global Macro


Markets shudder as US yields climb

DXY fell a little last night as it waits for Trump tax rocket juice: But that could not save the AUD which plunged against USD And EUR: And EMs: Gold was soft: Brent firm: Base metals still smokin’ the crack: Big miners not! EM stocks gave out another warning: High yield was soft: US yields


Welcome to the bubble in everything!

DXY was again right at the break out point of its very neat head and shoulders bottom: AUD was pounded lower for which have to thank Jacinda Ardern as the NZD was crushed: EMs were also weak: And gold: Oil was firm: Base metals are still chiming stupid o’clock EM stocks are still warning: High


New record highs for stocks

DXY launched last night then lost the lot. The chart remains bullish: AUD was weak against DM: But strong against EM: Gold was soft: Brent was firm on US hurricane outages and OPEC output cut extension talk (a certainty): Base metals were mixed: Big miners were crushed by Xi Jinping: EM stocks rebounded: High yield


Is King Dollar back?

DXY was strong last night and it’s head and shoulders bottom is near perfect if it breaks out: AUD was weak against USD, firm against EUR: It was strong against EMs: Gold was pummeled: Brent is still strong: The base metals lunacy flamed out: As did big miners: And EM stocks: High yield is stable:


It’s the everything (except ASX) boom!

DXY rebounded a little Friday night: But that couldn’t stop the runaway train that is AUD: Though it was mixed against EMs: AUD trader longs pulled back last week to 69k: Gold was on fire: Brent strong: Base metals partied: Big miners too: EM stocks moonshot: High yield yawned: US yields fell and the curve


Downtrodden youth must mobilise against intergenerational unfairness

By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, The Grattan Institute published a report outlining in all its hideous glory how older Australians have gotten wealthy while the young have been left behind: Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that older Australians are capturing an increasing share of the nation’s wealth, and the


Why is Macquarie long the “perpetual leveraging doomsday machine”

Great stuff today from the always entertaining and cross-disciplinary Viktor Shvets at Macquarie: Investors seem to be residing in a world without any notable perceived risks. It is an extraordinary and unprecedented situation, particularly given unresolved issues of over leveraging and associated over capacity as well as profound disruption of business and economic models, which


More record highs for stocks

DXY held up overnight: AUD did too as 78 cents holds for now: It was mixed against EMs: Gold tried and failed to rally: Brent bottomed: Base metals are still levitating: Big miners love China on holiday: EM stocks too: High yield yawn: US yields edged higher: European spreads widened again on Catalonia but it’s


Does finance benefit society?

Cross-posted from LF Economics: The title of the article comes from a very interesting and hard-hitting paper authored by a leading mainstream economist, Luigi Zingales. He is a professor of entrepreneurship and finance at Chicago University’s School of Business, with impeccable mainstream credentials. The paper in question appeared in The Journal of Finance and can


Would you like a car with those fries?

Bloomberg ran a report last week on electric cars that turned into a longer read than I expected as I chased through some of their numbers that seemed wrong: It’s been 10 years since Apple Inc. unleashed a surge of innovation that upended the mobile phone industry. Electric cars, with a little help from ride-hailing and self-driving technology,


Global stocks race ahead as Straya eats dirt

DXY was stable Friday night: AUD slipped against USD and fell against EUR: It was weak against EMs: AUD longs hit a new high last week, music to a bear’s ears: Gold was weak: Brent too: Base metals mixed: Big miners enjoyed the dead cat: EM stocks rebounded: High yield is still stuck: US yields


More record highs for stocks

DXY pulled back last night: AUD stabilised versus EMs: But fell against EMs: Gold held: Brent was whacked: Base metals rallied: But not big miners: EM stocks held: High yield is stable: US yields pulled back: European spreads contracted: And US stocks hit more record highs: It’s a pretty normal pullback following Trump tax excitement. There’s


A Bitcoin bet

I have yet to hear reasoned arguments about why Bitcoin should be considered a currency. Nor have the perceived advantages over existing currencies and their settlement systems ever really been properly elucidated. Somehow that does not stop people believing that Bitcoin is a currency. In many cases, people argue that it is even better than


Tax Bitcoin investors like everyone else

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Despite its name, cryptocurrency isn’t just money. It could also be debt or equity and so it should be regulated and taxed in the same way as other finance. The tokens investors get when they buy a cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, can be used to buy into blockchain startups (businesses that use


China’s cryptocurrency crackdown: a sign of things to come

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The Chinese government’s decision to order several Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies exchanges to close shows how much of a threat they are perceived to be to financial stability and social order in China. The decision to also ban initial coin offerings altogether (the unregulated means by which funds are raised for


The causes, triggers and timing of the next GFC

Via Deutsche:  This year’s long-term study looks at the frequency of financial crises and shocks through history and speculates as to where the next crises may originate from.  We think that the post Bretton Woods (1971-) global financial system remains vulnerable to financial crises. A simple internet search of financial crises through history