Global Macro

25

Global chip shortage to crash tech stocks?

The tech heavy NASDAQ is up nearly 58% in the last twelve months, leading the way against other stock markets – all of which are enjoying bull market conditions with 20-30% annual gains. But is the top coming from an unlikely source? Apple posted its latest quarterly earnings overnight that had two big surpsies –

30

Why working from home will stick

A new research paper from the Ronzetti Initiative for the Study of Labor Markets predicts that working from home (WFH) will stick after the pandemic ends, with 20% of full workdays to be performed remotely long-term versus 5% previously. It also estimates a 5% productivity uplift from WFH: We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple

0

Morgan Stanley: Winter is coming for risk markets

Morgan Stanley are out with a vague “Sell in May, but don’t go away” research note, implying a “difficult summer” (read: our winter) ahead for markets as they get complacent due to a mild form of normality returning to developed economies post COVID. They contend there are three fundamental challenges to the “everything is awesome”

10

COVID vaccines are working

Bank of America has published an interesting chart on the rising COVID vaccination rates across the USA and UK, where around 70% of their populations have received at least one shot: The US administered 21mn vaccine doses over the past week, increasing the total to 218.9mn. Europe administered 21mn doses this past week, for a

11

China’s demographic time bomb is rigged to blow

Even before COVID, China was facing stiff headwinds from an ageing population. These headwinds stem from the nation’s ‘one child policy’, which came into effect in the early-1970s and was credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979 to 2010. The ‘one child policy’ initially produced a population pyramid that was optimal to economic growth,

18

The making of the mother of all booms

Cross-posted from Policy Tensor comes a narrative that will send a shiver down the spine of the Aussie fake left: As I watched Powell give his speech yesterday, I had to keep pinching myself to check that I wasn’t dreaming. The technocrats who’ve run the world economy since the Volcker Coup finally seemed to get it.

9

Vaccinated US outpaces locked down Europe

For a few months now I have posited a global economic circumstance called “Biden’s America First”. It is one in which the US fiscal and vaccine advantages materially outstrip Europe leading to higher growth, inflation and yields. In turn this will be deflationary for the world as the US dollar comes to dominate again. Goldman

17

COVID crisis over? Vaccines working on virus variants

Key points from the UK’s COVID Symptom Study: No vaccines contain COVID-19. Pfizer better than AZ in infection risk reduction after one shot but both good: 90% reduction in hospitalisations. “Definite immunity” still a work in progress. Variants are “clobbered” by the second dose of vaccines. South African version definitely and probably Brazilian. Single-dose still

10

The virus will disrupt markets again

Mizuho with the warning: We have made it a habit, early every Monday morning, to review the global status of the COVID-19 pandemic, based on figures listed on the Johns HopkinsUniversity web site. We want to know whether rise in new infections is accelerating or slowing down. We are particularly interested in whether any specific

23

Brazilian variant spooks medicos

Natural selection is a beast. The moment we get individual or herd immunity and natural selection goes to work on finding a way around it. The FT is reporting on a new COVID variant from Brazil that is spooking medicos: First detected in November it has now spread to 35 countries. 25-61% of previously infected

21

Is the post-COVID boom going to bust?

BofA: In a normal business cycle recovery, the economy gradually returns to full employment, causing a lagged return of inflation pressure. This gives monetary and fiscal authorities’ time to recalibrate policy before there is serious overheating. This cycle looks far from normal: Super easy monetary and fiscal policy suggests the fastest business cycle recovery since

33

Israel proves that vaccination works

Israel has become somewhat of a global experiment on the global COVID vaccination front. It has rolled out vaccines at the fastest pace in the world, with around half of Israel’s population having received the first dose of Pfizer’s two-shot regime and around one-third having received both shots. The initial results are promising with two

16

Canada trashes entry standards to pump immigration ponzi

In late 2017, the Canadian Government launched a massive increase in the country’s immigration program, announcing that one million migrants would be let in over the following three years, with an annual migrant intake of 340,000 considered the “new normal”. Canada’s immigration minister, Ahmed Hussen, claimed the new targets would lift immigration to nearly 1%

8

Global fundies spooked by inflation

ZH has a great summary of the BofA fundie monthly: Below we present some of the highlights from the latest FMS, which finds that a record number of investors are taking “higher-than-normal” risk, up to 25% in February the highest on record… … for the following reasons: Net 91% of investors now see a stronger economy

26

Has COVID-19 killed recessions?

Has COVID-19 killed recessions? It’s a fascinating question. Let’s hope not because they are vital to advancing living standards as they sweep out the capital misallocation of the cycle and help drive productivity growth. Deutsche Bank muses: So aggressive has been the policy response that the US Covid recession is likely to be the shortest

27

Six years to vaccinate world from COVID

Dr Mary-Louise McLaws from the University of New South Wales estimates that at least 90% to 95% of Australians would need to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in order to combat new strains of the coronavirus. She adds that achieving herd immunity would require up to 190,000 Australians to be vaccinated every day. Meanwhile, infectious diseases

2

Why higher American wages would be a blessing

For years, MB has campaigned for higher wages on the basis that it is what capitalism needs to survive. This position is based on sound economics, that is higher wages drive productivity gains, the longer-term input of rising living standards. And the understanding that unfettered capital chasing ever lower-wage jurisdictions is a race to the

4

Goldman: Planet Earth entering super-boom

Goldman is turning uber-bullish on Planet Earth: After the slower-than-expected start in December and early January, global vaccinations have picked up roughly in line with our forecasts over the past month. However, there is still a lot of room for improvement. In the US, the problem has been largely distribution; by our estimates, only about

6

Here comes the inflation panic

At FTAlphaville We’d like to draw your attention to two articles that have recently graced FT.com. Here’s the first, from the FT’s German industry correspondent Joe Miller, which appeared online earlier today: German carmakers are considering building up semiconductor stockpiles to prevent a repeat of the crippling chip shortages that brought assembly lines to a