Global Macro


More record highs for stocks

DXY pulled back last night: AUD stabilised versus EMs: But fell against EMs: Gold held: Brent was whacked: Base metals rallied: But not big miners: EM stocks held: High yield is stable: US yields pulled back: European spreads contracted: And US stocks hit more record highs: It’s a pretty normal pullback following Trump tax excitement. There’s


A Bitcoin bet

I have yet to hear reasoned arguments about why Bitcoin should be considered a currency. Nor have the perceived advantages over existing currencies and their settlement systems ever really been properly elucidated. Somehow that does not stop people believing that Bitcoin is a currency. In many cases, people argue that it is even better than


Tax Bitcoin investors like everyone else

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Despite its name, cryptocurrency isn’t just money. It could also be debt or equity and so it should be regulated and taxed in the same way as other finance. The tokens investors get when they buy a cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin, can be used to buy into blockchain startups (businesses that use


China’s cryptocurrency crackdown: a sign of things to come

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The Chinese government’s decision to order several Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies exchanges to close shows how much of a threat they are perceived to be to financial stability and social order in China. The decision to also ban initial coin offerings altogether (the unregulated means by which funds are raised for


The causes, triggers and timing of the next GFC

Via Deutsche:  This year’s long-term study looks at the frequency of financial crises and shocks through history and speculates as to where the next crises may originate from.  We think that the post Bretton Woods (1971-) global financial system remains vulnerable to financial crises. A simple internet search of financial crises through history


Steve Keen: Soaring global debt risks another GFC

Cross-posted from The Conversation: This phrase may have religious roots, but there is no better way to describe the dominant sect in economics today than as wilfully blind. A decade after the 2007-08 crisis, most still repeat the mantra that it could not have been predicted. Nonsense. The data that showed what would cause the


Will the Great Taper bring on GFC 2.0?

Via Citi: After many years of sizable increases in central bank balance sheets (Figure 2), major changes in central bank purchases are approaching, as i) the Fed is due to announce balance sheet reduction in September and begin implementing it in October, ii) the ECB will probably announce a reduction in its net purchase volume


DPRK fires new missile over Japan

Via the BBC: North Korea has fired a missile eastwards from its capital, Pyongyang, towards Japan, media reports say. Japan said that the missile likely passed over its territory and has warned residents to take shelter, local media report. South Korea and the US are analysing the details of the launch, the South’s military said.


US lowflation lifts Australian dollar

DXY got kicked last night: The Aussie was flat against DMs: And mixed against EMs: Gold lifted a little: Brent jumped then fell. More shale ahead at these levels: Base metals look very toppy here as the Chinese slowdown appears: Big miners too: EM stocks held on: High yield still flat: US yields jumped though


Banking sector to be culled by automation

Cross-posted from The Conversation: Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan has predicted a bonfire of industry jobs as automation takes hold across the finance sector. Every signal is that he will be proved right very soon. Those roles in finance where the knowledge required is systematic will soon disappear. And it will happen irrespective of how


S&P500 roars to record highs

DXY caught a big counter-bid last night: The Aussie dollar fell sharply: And was mixed against EMs: Gold was shellacked: Brent was hit: Base metals rebounded: Big miners too: EM stocks soared: High yield was bid: US yields jumped: Europe too: And stocks roared to record highs: Hard to tell if this is the turn


Canada hikes rates, housing crashes

Via Bloomie: The Bank of Canada forged ahead with another interest rate hike in a nod to the country’s surging economy, while signaling its appetite for further tightening may be curbed by a rising currency and sluggish price pressures. Policy makers raised their benchmark rate 25 basis points to 1 percent, the second increase since July. At


Fed versus ECB battle intensifies

Friday night saw DXY soft and EUR strong: AUD tracked the two: Gold was firm and has jumped this morning: Brent was firm amid hurricane fog: Base metals are still crazy: Big miners have broken out across the board (except on the ASX, killed by AUD): EM stocks too: Not high yield which is a


Australian dollar pump and dump

DXY fell last night as EUR roared again: AUD did the usual two-step: Was mixed against EMs: Gold surged: Oil surged as another hurricane heads for the US: Base metals too: Big miners are ripping towards break out: EM stocks too: US yields lifted but the curve sank: European spreads shrank: Stocks surged: It was