The stock market is developing a bearish character. The impact of the high Australian dollar is being felt on earnings prospects and the weakening housing market is entrenching the two speed economy. Defensive strategies are being dusted off. But given that the options are not especially attractive elsewhere, one possible defensive strategy is to do
Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation
Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another
In yesterday’s article I looked at what a housing correction may do to the Australian share market – both from a macro economic point of view as well as the company level. We discussed which stocks would be exposed and some that may not. So now let’s see what opportunities a correction may present the
Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion
The impact of the high Australian dollar is becoming a feature in broker forecasts and broker sentiment. Southern Cross, having blamed the Federal government for all Australia’s problems, now seems to believe that some of it is due to the high currency. Perhaps they have woken to the joys of reading MacroBusiness. A Southern Cross report today
We talk a lot on MacroBusiness about an Australian housing bubble. H&H, UE and DE are doing a sterling job of demonstrating Australian house prices are historically high by any meaningful measure. Plenty of people – in fact most in the mainstream media and real estate industry – disagree with them, some vehemently so. But
Summary After peaking sharply on the open, the market has settled slightly up after the almost week long Easter/ANZAC break, at 4918 points. NOTE: as I was compiling this report, the PPI figures came out and the market has sunk over 20 points after midday. The short term trend remains weak but positive on momentum,
Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index (and others) Its green across the board: all stocks, futures and commodities are up and gold has surpassed $US1500 and change – but paradoxically
There has been a lot of commentary about Coles’ improved performance when compared with Woolworths’. Stephen Bartholomeusz enthuses about the “renaissance of Coles” although he is careful to say that Woolworths is doing alright as well. Elizabeth Knight enthuses about the “dazzling sales number from Coles raises the stakes in the mother of all supermarket
What a difference a couple of days can make. Earlier this week we had global inflation concerns, with a tightening from China weighing on markets. This was followed by growing sovereign concerns on restructure talk in Europe’s periphery and S&P’s downgrade to the outlook for the US’s sovereign debt rating. While these fundamentals are still
Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has bounced back slightly this morning on reflated overseas markets, up 0.7% around midday. As I said yesterday, the market
An investment note by Southern Cross looks at the effect of Australia’s political leadership on the stock market, which is a subject not often addressed, at least by analysts. Privately, many say that the Resources Super Profits Tax has scared off foreign investors for a very long time because it made Australia look “socialist”. If
Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. The S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 has fallen substantially this morning and continues into midday trading, hovering around 4800 points. This is now well below its
The consensus on MacroBusiness is that housing currently has more downside risk than upside potential, that the banks’s earning growth is increasingly limited and that the consumer has switched off. Being a bear by temperament myself, I can but agree. But we bears are often wrong and it is worth at least considering the opposite case.
Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is subdued this morning, just above 4850 points. The market is hovering just below its 15 day moving average and decelerating.
Woolworths released its FY11 Q3 sales update today, reaffirming the latest guidance for FY11 NPAT to increase by 5% to 8%. The market seemed to like the news, with shares up about 1% in today’s trading. Funny thing is, the update didn’t contain any unexpected news. Here’s a brief summary by segment: Supermarket sales are
Leighton’s debacle has been well analysed on MacroBusiness. It appears to be a problem of poor incentive structures, which had been changed. Bonuses were paid for winning tenders, not on whether they would be profitable. Different divisions of the company bid against each other. The result was like paying fund managers for assets under management,
Note: anything in quotation marks is a reference to yesterday’s or earlier notes that I’ve made. These comments are read in context of an investor/trader with a medium term timeframe. S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 16 points to 4867. The market is hovering above its 15 day moving average and slowly decelerating.
Australia is the best performing equity market in the world over the past century according to a Bloomberg story. I confess I would never have thought this but given the claim has been made by the London Business School and Credit Suisse I guess it has some credibility. If this is truly the case, it begs
It may have passed Craig James by, but a few brokers are starting to wake up to the obvious. That the Australian economy is being permanently altered by the mining boom and the impact of China. It will inevitably bias the stock market towards resources. No houses, just holes. A report by Southern Cross arrives
S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down 5 points to 4893 after a bouncy opening session. The banks are holding up the resources as the risk-trades start to wind back a little. There is weak support at the psychological important 4900 level, but I would apply caution as overnight markets (e.g Dow, SP500, FTSE
At Empire Investing we’re always amused – and a little exasperated – at the use of erroneous financial measures to provide indications of a company’s value or highlight the benefit of an M&A. Earnings per share (EPS) and dividend yield are probably the most commonly used, however when promoted as single metrics (i.e. in isolation) they
The high currency is not weighing too much on the share market if a Deutsche Bank report is right. It is one of the contradictions of the market’s “animal spirits”. In theory, a high $A should deter foreigners because of the possibility that a sharp fall will reduce the value of returns in the foreign
S&P/ASX200 Index – XJO The S&P/ASX200 is down over 1 percent or 50 points to 4920 (update: 1pm EST) after weak overnight action. The V-shaped rebound is slowing down, as exuberance gives way to reality. Winners AMP: still overbought, but bids keep coming. ANZ: uptrend is not slowing down! Consensus rules – banks are back.
A report by Gerard Minack at Morgan Stanley today wrestles with one of this blogger’s favourite topics, the problem that the cost of capital is taking a holiday in developed economies. This is distorting pricing and making the job of getting decent returns unusually difficult. As one chief executive commented at a presentation recently, we
I will be providing this trading update on the ASX100 daily at noon. Winners AMP: overbought in the short term, but accelerating in the medium term after a rounding bottom. BTFD ANZ: uptrend is slowing down. Watch for acceleration on external market rallies. BHP-Billiton (BHP) up up and away. Becoming overbought in the short term.