Macro Afternoon

A slightly better day here in Asia on stock markets, although Japanese bourses are spoiling the party as the Yen continues to appreciate. A positive mood on Wall Street overnight translated into modest gains across most of the region, with the ASX200 finally playing catchup. Treasury yields continue to moderate while the USD also slips against the major currencies with gold up as well.

In mainland China the Shanghai Composite is building on its positive start to the week, currently up 0.8% to 3181 points. The Hang Seng Index is doing even better, up 1.5% to just below 30000 points, as it tries to pullback from some very serious falls. While this is promising, its still only a swing long play for now:

S&P futures have moderated since last night’s advance, finding a level of support just above 2640 points. I’m still looking for a return above 2680 or so:

Japanese stocks returned from their day off and immediately sell buttons were pressed as the Yen appreciated strongly against the USD. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.6% lower to 21244 points as momentum remains seriously negative. The USDJPY pair has slumped below key weekly support at the 108.50 level, a new low since September of last year, setting up for a potentially large breakdown:

The ASX200 finally put some runs on the board after a failed start yesterday, lifting 35 points or 0.6% lower to 5855. A broad recovery, helped along somewhat by bargain hunters snapping up bank stocks. The Aussie dollar continues to push a little higher towards the 79 handle but its about to come up against key resistance at the 78.80 level:

The economic calendar begins to ramp up with the UK CPI print later tonight, while first thing tomorrow watch out for the latest Japanese GDP figures.


    • The Traveling Wilbur

      First they came for Mig.
      Then they came for… Uh… Oh.
      And again.
      And also again.
      I guess that’s OK then.

      (*waves at Mig, waits patiently for more enjoyable posts (in moderation hopefully) – provided the information superhighway isn’t chocka with ice*)

    • Sh!te, China boomed hard for the year last time they did this. Seems there’s no end in sight to Chinese funny money, I’m not sure we will see the iron ore price + aud fall this year now. Hopefully they can maintain their capital controls otherwise SydMel will go Reusa’s way again.

      • When credit is being used to fund productive investments (ie total value returned is greater than total cost of debt), then top line growth in credit is what matters.

        When credit is being poured into unproductive investments (like China and Australia and all other housing bubbles ever), then rate of credit growth is most important.

      • As in : ” to expect someone or something to be always available to serve in some way without thanks or recognition; to value someone or something too lightly ”

        I don’t know why, especially that TTW

    • Everyone knows algos have an austerity bias….

      disheveled… no human agency thingy… machines are perfect…

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Dogs like poor people. They smell nice. Dogs don’t like machines. Bark at them mostly.

        The algo world would be so much better if only they could have a puppy.

    • 190k for an early 30s media advisor. In the private sector she’d have been lucky to get 80k. Then again, there is a 110K special ‘Canberra loading’.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        You know we’ve been paying for her to be on ‘stress’ leave as well?

        Everyone has forgotten about that Roman Quadbike fellow of Border Farce/I’m on full pay for nine months because I organised my floozy a cushy job fame.

        It really pays to be dodgy in Canberra.

    • Can’t wait for the first houso to get legal aid and test the definition of “partner”. If it’s good enough for for our dishounerable members….

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Ding, ding.

        Spot on. I’ve been wondering when people would latch on to that. This isn’t going to end well for Walcolm Turn-a-bligh-eye – and if the PM keeps defending him successfully, will possibly never end.

        PS You know someone is your partner when you care enough about them to get a job for them with another boss AND expect relations after.

        (I just didn’t want to be the one giving ideas to all those filthy bludgers the government is doing such a good job of policing grinding to dust recently)

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        This might backfire on us. Centrelink might judge that he’s gone poligamy style with two partners and everyone deserves twice as much. Allah knows he’s gonna need the extra dosh with what’s coming in his future.

        Shut up Burnside, you’re costing us money here…

      • Fairfax reports Joyce claimed 50 days allowance for Parliament sitting. He could clam his partner’s womb as a special baby apartment during this session of Parliament.

  1. The United States has entered a period of historical deterioration, and the obamas are having their portraits painted. Or perhaps, one is symptomatic of the other.

    Is Michelle’s image a ‘modern day’ Mona Lisa? Let the debate begin.

    Meanwhile, in downtown LA…

    • That’s a cheap shot. It’s been standard practice since about 1790 or so for every POTUS as they leave to have their portrait done. The only optional bit is they get to choose the painter.

    • It had nothing to do with being Russian oo7, its was how dodgy the whole thing is w/ the absurd marketing of “perfect money” and you using it a an exemplar of crypto. Then there is the whole thing about it fixing the world, think we have heard that one before, bubble after bubble. Sure a few make squillions, but more than not it diminishes others or worse made destitute. Did you miss the GFC or something.

      You don’t even see the parallel with toxic derivatives.

      disheveled…. fighting with angels…. shezzz…..

    • BTW supporting crypto means you have to rescind all complaints about RE prices and corporate looting.

      disheveled…. you can’t be anti rentier and then support crypto…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        That’s like saying you can’t smoke dope if you think coke is evil. Or cocaine too I guess.

      • this point still hasn’t cottoned on Skippy.
        A housing bubble is a bad bubble because the cult member wants a house.
        A non asset, non-currency scam bubble in nothing is good because the cult want to buy the nothing object and get out before the dump stage so they can maximise their fiat in order to buy a house.
        The common thread in both cases is that what is perceived as good for the cult member is good for everyone and visa versa.

      • Sweeper…

        Yet mention wages stolen and their heads go pop…. unless its their profit taking… then its all good.

        This is why I’ve always likened this cult as just being a corporatist mind set for the plebs e.g. provide the impetuous. The McCrazzypants part is when some fundies crack a fat about those that underwrote the whole thing, torturous logic.

        As we know money is a social construct, how its used is dependent on the dominate narrative, don’t see crypto changing the currant dominate narrative. The Bizarre bit is due to transaction costs and fee structure one could see banks and others embracing it, right back to Mackenzie’s formula on roids.

    • Some of us less inclined to the noble joy of aggressive debate (read abuse), did probably read the comment with the irony intended. Lol.

      (every time I pass by … tff)

      • Aj,


        Yes, the response to any mention of the subject is becoming performance art. That link to Naked Cap is a cracker. Could have been written by any number of folk round these parts…though the references throughout to Hayek may be a surprise. to some.

        As I say time and again. I have no cryptos nor do I want to use them as they are just private forms of money. No different to other forms of private credit that may or may not be used for private purposes by 3rd parties.

        That so many people lose their mind (or at least their sense of proportion) but seem to choose to ignore the effective massive (over 90%) privatisation of what should be purely public money as a result of the privileges extended to private bank credit is remarkable. Considering the amount of time spent by this blog and now the Royal Commission dissecting the consequences of that privatisation of public money for the Australian economy.

        Sweeper and Skippy are no surprise as they are clearly very determined private bank apologists. No different to the endless support given by 3d1k to the private interests in that other major sector of our economy.

      • All said without any proof oo7, yet you can only talk about money and banks from some vague emotive stance.

        Do try addressing the content for once.

    • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

      Chinese really love the Pacific Ocean.
      San Francisco

      Some days I wonder if it’s strategic!

    • A friend living there(and leaving soon) talks about lots of street dwellers,no public facilities so faesces left in piles on street,playgrounds unusable for food rubbish,human and animal excreta,no maintenance. Take your eyes/ hands off any of your belongings and they are stolen (and not always by the poor and homeless-everyone has sticky fingers).They belong to the diplomatic service, and live in a relatively affluent area.

  2. P auline H anson puts out call for next generation of One N ation candidates auline-h anson-puts-out-call-for-next-generation-of-one-n ation-candidates-20180213-h0vzwe
    “The carnage caused by the rolling dual citizenship saga has left P auline H anson’s One N ation the most powerful crossbench party in the Senate, with the ability to block contentious legislation with its numbers and influence set to grow.”