Commodities

From Deutsche via FTAlphaville: While some metals merchants could be subject to mark to market margin calls due to RMB depreciation, they might opt to do more transit trades to meet cash requirements rather than selling copper outright, although this may only last for a short period of time.

The AFR‘s Angus Grigg has a piece today that may seem a little behind the times but it’s not: China faces three major problems and overcoming any of them will be negative for iron ore.

Gina’s folks are putting on a brave face.

And so, our wild ride goes on.

A quick update to key iron ore paper markets.

Mac Bank has a nice little note today derived from an interview with a Glencore iron ore trader.

Major iron ore stocks are still levitating today with FMG down half a percent and RIO up half.

Along with iron ore, copper fell sharply last night, down another 2%: I noted yesterday the bearish descending triangle chart  on very long term support:   I can’t see it holding.

Here are the iron ore charts for March 10, 2014: No need to adjust your television set.

From NineMSN and the Motley Fool: There’s still every chance that an iron ore price plunge could happen this year, however I doubt that share prices will fall as heavily as they did in 2012 and 2013.

Well, you learn something every day. Australia does have a big stake in what happens in the Ukraine after all. It turns out that it is a substantial iron ore exporter. From Credit Suisse: In 2013 Ukraine exported 38 Mt of iron ore (Exhibit 20), of which 45% was shipped toChina (Exhibit 21).

Daily iron ore charts for February 6, 2014 below: Rebar futures broke support are headed further down.

The argument that Chinese steel output is at its peak gets some heavy-duty support today from Reuters: Zhang Wuzong, delegate at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and chairman of private steelmaker Shandong Shiheng Special Steel said there was no room for further expansion.

Port Hedland has released its iron ore shipments data for February and the numbers are pretty good with 27.8 million tonnes of iron ore headed out to sea, 21.3 million tonnes of which is off to China.

Here are the iron ore charts for March 5, 2013: Be aware that Dalian six month futures were largely flat on the day but I’ve shifted out to the September contract.

Find below the iron ore charts for March 4, 2013:     Rebar futures are still trading at their lows.

Find below the iron ore price tables for March 3, 2014: A marginal new low for spot, 12 month swaps have broken their mid 2013 support and Dalian futures are in free-fall.

Find below the iron ore charts for February 28, 2014:   What can I say?

UBS’s marvelously named Tom Price (pictured above on recent tour of the Pilbara) has a little note today measuring the impact on iron ore of Chinese authorities attempt to cure Beijing capital of air pollution.

From the AFR today: Vale, the world’s largest iron ore producer, will maintain cost and capital-spending austerity this year even as the outlook for prices is improving, its chief executive officer said.