Commodities

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Iron ore price stabilising?

It’s all good today! Not much movement overnight in the steel complex but enough to suggest that the big falls are behind us. 12 month swaps are starting to price with some consistency in the mid $90s range: There is also clearly a lift in broader sentiment as Draghi applies his band-aid and although it

1

Iron ore volumes showing the pain?

Yesterday Port Hedland released its August shipping statistics including iron ore tonnages, which looked like this: Not bad but closer inspection throws up a few worries. August tends to be a down month but this year the fall is 9.3% versus half that in the previous two years. Volumes tend to be highest mid year

6

RBA index of commodity prices: yuck!

Late yesterday the RBA released its August Index of Commodity Prices: Preliminary estimates for August indicate that the index fell by 3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after rising by 0.9 per cent in July (revised). The largest contributors to the fall in August were declines in the prices of

0

Coking coal still falling

From ANZ this morning: Newcastle FOB physical thermal coal were down 0.7% last week to USD88.41/t. Although Chinese domestic prices were steady, supported by the ongoing falls in coal inventories – Qinhuangdao stocks down 3.7% w/w. Expected supply disruptions are also supporting China’s domestic coal price, as scheduled maintenance is performed on the Daqin railway. Coking coal also fell 1.9% w/w

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The long term price of iron ore

Here is today’s iron ore update: Hints of stabilisation on Friday but it’s still anyone’s guess if this is the bottom. I’m pretty skeptical so long as Chinese steel prices are still falling. Meanwhile my views on iron ore have been perfectly captured in a note by Ric Deverell, the widely respected head of commodities at

1

CISA puts the boot into iron ore price

Amid the dreadful iron ore coverage around the place today, there are a couple of articles worth reading. The first is from Bloomberg: China’s iron ore output probably fell about 10 percent this month as tumbling prices squeezed out costly producers and steelmakers used cheaper imports, the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprise Association said. Production will

5

Down, down, prices are down!

I was accused this morning of gloating over the accident that’s transpiring in Australia’s bulk commodities. Happily a bevy of readers came to my defence. But there is someone that is gloating over the accident and that’s FTAlphaville, which posted the following on the falling iron ore price today: We can laugh at ourselves can’t we?

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Coking coal hits new low

From the ANZ today: Newcastle Sep coal futures lost 0.4% to USD89.9/t, while iron ore again fell heavily, losing 4.7% to USD90.3/t. Chinese steel prices continue to weigh on iron ore. Hot-rolled coil is nearing a month long losing streak, while the most active rebar contract on the SFE hit an all time low yesterday with open interest at record

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Charlie Aitken defends the ore price

Via FT Alphaville comes this quote from Charlie Aitken: Right here right now the spot markets are in turmoil as Vale dumps cargoes, traders who have been caught long at higher prices cut that trading inventory, and Chinese steel mills sit on their hands and run down inventories. It is estimated that Chinese steel mill

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Bloxo puts the commodities bull case

Paul Bloxham of HSBC  recently released a very good piece of research arguing that the global economy had made a structural shift towards emerging markets growth that would continue a powerful surge in infrastructure growth and support high prices for commodities for decades. I agreed with his note but disagreed with its conclusion, that this

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Iron ore price assumptions collapse

By David Llewellyn-Smith The iron ore complex tanked again yesterday: Perhaps some hope in the contango with the 12month which did signal the bottom in last year’s crash: But Chinese steel prices are still falling too: Here are some choice iron ore quotes from Reuters: “We believe that China is in the middle of a

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All quiet on the iron ore price front

All quiet on the ore front yesterday with little movement anywhere (though swaps haven’t updated yet): As some buying support appears to be coming back into the market, I thought it worth revisiting a chart from Morgan Stanley from last year’s falls: Take a close look at the very sensitive relationship between the iron ore

0

Coking coal still sliding

From the ANZ: Newcastle FOB physical thermal coal prices were steady last week at USD89.05/t. Although market activity remained subdued, the end of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr in Indonesia should see more movement this week. Having hit a low of a low of USD81-82/t in late July, thermal coal prices have held up well. The same cannot be

2

Credit crunch seizes iron ore price

Friday’s ore price movements showed some stabilisation: With 12 month swaps catching a break, there is some hope that last’s week’s heavy dump was the capitulation phase for the ore price. There is not much hope in the fundamentals, however, with rebar falling to a new low and little discussion so far of Chinese steel-makers

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“Keep taking the pills, Nev”

Fresh and cross-posted  from FT Alphaville, comes this unusually frank assessment of Fortescue and iron ore. Remember the joke about the $120 iron ore price floor? How we laughed. And for continued amusement here’s Nev Power, chief executive of Fortescue Metals,the highly-leveraged poster child of the Australian resources boom, discussing iron ore at Wednesday’s annual results announcement. From

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And now for coking coal…

I have been a bit confused by some of the spot versus contract pricing going in the market for coking coal. It appears I got my quarters mixed up. From ANZ today, there’s clarity, sadly: Newcastle Sept coal futures fell mildly to USD91.5/t. China’s total coal imports fell 10.3% m/m to 20.2mt in July, but is still