Morgan Stanley says buy Fortescue

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Morgan Stanley says go “overweight” FMG:

“If we assume 90 per cent price realisation, FMG C1 cash costs and sustaining capex maintained at $US15 a tonne and $US2 a tonne from FY16 to FY20, respectively, with our base-case currency assumptions, we estimate the required headline iron ore price for FMG to repay all its debt when it falls due to be about $US47 a dry metric tonne. This implies capacity for both debt reduction and capital returns at current prices.”

What a shame prices are going to halve.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.