Commodities

Big iron can’t catch a bid despite the rising ore price hinting firmly at a gathering de-rating for the sector, and not before time.

Here are the iron ore price charts for December 21, 2015: Spot still firming with Tianjin benchmark up 0.2% to $39.40 but it is lagging paper now which flamed-out after a rip higher yesterday.

The Brent oil price is sitting right on its GFC lows after falling again last night to $36.17.

From Macquarie:  The evidence from previous episodes of when the Fed has began hiking is mixed.

Big iron can’t find a bid today despite the incipient price rebound with BHP up 0.2%.

Via Macquarie:  The International Energy Agency (IEA), often referred to by coal producers due to its bullish outlook, today released their Medium-Term Coal Market Report to 2020.

Here are the iron ore charts for December 18, 2015: Spot up with Tianjin benchmark up 2% to $39.30. Paper too with a Dalian rip. Rebar up. Port stocks rocketed 1.9 million tonnes (mt) to 92.4mt.

Brent oil was hit again Friday night to $36.68.

From Business Insider’s David Scutt: If there’s one thing Australian markets types love to talk about at present, it’s the slumping iron ore price…There’s a sense of doomsaying about this; it’s going down the gurgler, taking the industry and Australia with it.

More falls today for big iron and gas but the hope is still plain as spreads between local and international prices widens.

From Mac Bank: The final met coal contract settlement for 1Q16 emerged on Tuesday, with semi-soft coking coal (SSCC) coming in at $66/t FOB Australia, down 7% QoQ. The hard coking coal (HCC) and pulverised coal injection (PCI) contract prices had earlier been concluded at $81/t and $69/t respectively, down 9% and 3% QoQ.

Brent oil was hit again last night but held above GFC lows at $36.94 as I write.

Here are the iron ore price charts for December 17, 2015: Tianjin benchmark was up 0.7% to $38.50.

The rally is struggling already.

From Euractiv: The coal industry’s European lobbying association has said that the landmark deal to cap global warming at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris means the sector “will be hated and vilified, in the same way that slave traders were once hated and vilified”.

Here are the iron ore charts for December 16, 2015: Tianjin benchmark was up 1.8% to $38.20.

By Leith van Onselen Federal Labor MP for Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon, is reportedly “devastated” at the potential loss of a further 400 jobs as Glencore puts planned expansions of its Blakefield North underground on indefinite hold.

Finally some relief for Trevor Sykes today as a dead cat bounce send BHP up 4.3%, RIO up 2.4% and FMG up 1.7%: I can’t see much future in it personally but perhaps Santa can outweigh reality for a little while.

From Macquarie today: Until recently, we were expecting 2016 to be a year of stability in the Chinese construction market, after the leg down seen in 2015 (we have steel into residential property down 10% YoY in 2015).

The Mining GFC took the night off last night as shorts were covered and everything reversed.

From The Australian: Indian energy giant Adani has won another legal victory against environmentalists, with Queensland’s Land Court approving the proposed $16.5 billion Carmichael coalmine.

From Dumbfax: According to talk on some trading desks one position hedge funds might want to close out is any shorts they have in BHP Billiton.

Here are the iron ore price charts for December 15, 2015: Tianjin benchmark was unchanged at $37.50.

The Brent oil price took off last night before settling back to $38.43, up 1%, for no reason except markets got too short.

Cross-posted from The Conversation: The ink is barely dry on the Paris climate agreement and the debate has already started on how the deal will affect the future of fossil fuels, particularly coal.