Courtesy of ANZ: Physical iron ore prices were unchanged at USD116.6. Talks of steel mills in China replenishing stocks supported the iron ore market the last couple of days, but weakness in the iron ore swaps (IOS) markets overnight suggests it could have been a false start. Front month Jun13 IOS contract declined USD3.83/t to
Two opposing views on the iron ore price are offered today by Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs. CS remains bearish: Much of the recent decline appears linked to a reduction in mills’ iron ore inventories (Exhibit 26), albeit port stocks are now rising. Given the apparent overhang of steel stocks in both the hands of
Find below the iron ore price table for June 5, 2013: Rebar futures also fell. Obviously no follow through on yesterday. Dead cat thesis intact.
Find below the iron ore price table for June 4, 2013: Obviously a very sharp bottom confirmed yesterday. I’ll stick with my call that it’s a dead cat for now, though as we know they can levitate for a while. From the AFR today come comments from the chairman of Baosteel, Xu Lejiang confirming the changes in
From the ANZ: Iron ore markets rebounded, up 1.4% to USD111.9. China’s HSBC PMI fell to 49.2 yesterday, contradicting the official PMI May figure of 50.8 released at the weekend. But optimism prevailed, with Oct13 SHFE rebar futures ending the session 0.8% higher to RMB3,459/t, supporting front-month iron ore swap (IOS) and physical iron ore
Find below the iron ore price table for June 3, 2013: Rebar futures also jumped on the day. Both seemed to have gotten a lift from the weekend China PMI. I hope this is the bottom but I have my doubts. Until rebar finds a bottom I find it hard to believe that iron ore
China’s May steel PMI is out shows a slight improvement on April. The headline number was up 1.7 points to 46.8 without output climbing 4.1 points to 49 and almost back into expansion after three moths of declines. Both new orders and new export orders also fell at a slower pace with the former up
Over the weekend the AFR’s Anne Hyland wrote a terrific piece on the coal bust: It’s coal’s darkest hour. The once-in-a-generation coal boom is over. Incredibly, the world’s biggest mining companies such as BHP Billiton and the tribe of billionaires the coal boom enriched – from Gina Rinehart to Nathan Tinkler – didn’t see the
Find below the iron ore price table for May 31, 2013: Rebar futures were also down and only a hair off last September’s low. Here’s the spot and swaps charts: Technically, the next support is at $103. then it’s plain sailing to last year’s low. On the spreads between spot and swap, as well as
Find below the iron ore price table for May 30, 2013: Rebar futures also fell 1%. And the chart for spot and swap: So, 12 month swaps rebounded into their recent range, offering hope that this move lower is spent. Swaps do turn first. Weighing against that is the ongoing falls in steel prices. Too
The SMH has a good story from Reuters this afternoon on the iron ore rout: The root cause of the current weakness in the iron ore market is the same as the last time around, namely margin compression in China’s steel sector. The tension between a previously largely steady iron ore price and falling steel
From ANZ: Iron ore prices plunged another 4% to USD112.9/t. Iron ore prices are 29% lower than the most recent high in February and are at a seven and a half month low. FOB Australian coking coal prices also declined to USD140.35/t on bearish sentiment. A 1.3% decline in the most active Shanghai Oct rebar
Find below the iron ore pricing table for May 30, 2013: Rebar futures also blew lower. And the charts for spot and swap: Although the move in spot is big and scary, it’s the breakdown of the swaps that’s significant. The only support left now is the November low of last year around $105. I
Find below the iron price table for May 28, 2013: Another tough day at the office. Here are the charts for spot and swap: The spreads are swiftly reverting to mean. Spot to swap is now within historic ranges: My estimation is that 5% is an appropriate spread at this price range. For the spot/rebar
Find below the iron ore price table for May 27, 2013: Not a great day. Rebar average and futures both hit their September 2012 lows. Here is the chart: There is hope in the steadiness of the 12 month swap which has refused to budge below $110ish. But note as well that unlike spot it
Find below the iron ore price table for May 25, 2013: Note that the unchanged iron ore price is unconfirmed. It is based upon a tweet from ComSec but the data providers are yet to update the spot price for Friday so I don’t know where they go it. I will update when the price
Courtesy of ANZ: Coking coal prices continued to fall, down to USD142/t, while iron ore prices remained flat. The preliminary HSBC PMI results set a bearish tone for industrial metals. Iron ore port stockpiles in China rose slightly last week to 72.5mt, but still remain significantly low compared to recent years. Iron ore traders are
Credit Suisse has a new note out on iron ore this morning that I agree with as an optimistic scenario for iron ore. First it sees the current breakneck pace of Chinese steel production to slow: Housing and construction activity already show signs of leveling out, not least because price inflation continues to bug Beijing
Find below the iron ore price table for May 23, 2013: Rebar futures were down too and are tight on last year’s lows. No news today.
BHP held an investors round table yesterday and it produced a few interesting iron ore snippets. From Citi: WA Iron Ore is on track to deliver 220mtpa by mid-14, with an unapproved US$1b expansion of Jimblebar likely to take that to 240mtpa. To reach 300mtpa an additional mining hub, in-load capacity and berths in Port
Find below the iron ore price table for May 22, 2013: In news today, Deutsche is out with a new report predicting another 8% drop in spot. From Businessweek: Steel prices that have been pressuring Chinese mills are stabilizing as facilities shut down due to power shortages in Hebei province, and more will close for
Find below the iron ore price table for May 21, 2013:
Find below the iron ore price table for May 20, 2013: In news, it appears the large steel inventory build, poor sales and shifting context of structural change has once again spooked Chinese steel mills. From the FT: Analysts said that the past week’s tumble in prices had been caused by an outbreak of bearish
From ANZ: Iron ore prices ended the week with a 5% drop, the sharpest fall since mid-March when China’s growth expectations for this year were reduced. Iron ore prices are now sitting around 6-month lows and remain under pressure from the weakness in Chinese steel prices. Coking coal prices also posted the 4th consecutive week
Find below the iron ore price table for May 17, 2103: Rebar futures bounced. Here’s the spot and swap chart: The next chart support is in the $118-$120 area. Looks like we’re going to test it, as previously discussed. Meanwhile, as promised, here are my spread charts. Both remain stretched, with iron ore to swap
Find below the iron ore price table for May 17, 2013: At $15, the 12 month swap to spot spread has returned to historically consistent dimensions for this price range. The spread to rebar remains very wide. So, either both iron ore prices keep falling or rebar keeps rising if the reversion to mean is
Find below the iron ore price table for May 15, 2013: Rebar futures also sold off sharply. Looks like we’re headed for a test of $120 “price floor” and charts would suggest $110 is the next support level. Iron ore got some good news from analysts yesterday when Morgan Stanley argued that ore will remain
Find below the iron ore price table for May 14, 2013: Looks like we’re going to test $120. I’m still not overly bearish. All of that Chinese credit growth has to support something! In news today, the Australian Budget is slowly coming to terms with reality. From the AFR: It may be this year’s single
I noted this morning that Indian sourced iron ore inventories at Chinese ports appear to rising again. There is further news flow suggesting India may be set to resume substantial exports by December. From the Business Standard: NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Goa expects court approval to resume by year-end the production and export of iron ore
Find below the iron ore price table for May 13, 2013: Rebar futures were up slightly. Chinese port stocks edged up again last week to 75.6 million tonnes. Indian source stocks rose again also, up to 18 million tonnes. Whatever the cause, some Indian iron ore appears to be seeping back into the market.
